Episode 421: Deal or No Deal? Trump, Zelensky, and Ukraine’s Future

Today, Martha, Les, Morgan, and Jess examine Europe’s reaction to the Trump administration’s latest Ukraine policy shift. As the U.S. scales back intelligence sharing and pushes for a U.S.-Russia-brokered peace deal, European leaders are scrambling to define their own approach.Will this force Europe to step up militarily and act as a unified bloc? Can France’s talk of nuclear deterrence become a credible alternative to U.S. support? And how will these developments shape Europe’s defense future?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvssAXQz4Cwhttps://www.politico.eu/article/european-leaders-ukraine-aid-nightmare-summit-government-emmanuel-macron-germany-us-russia/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones @morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HxBlRFN-mb0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Morgan, and Jess break down President Trump’s March 4th national address, which was largely focused on domestic issues, with foreign policy and national security taking a backseat. When those topics did come up—more than an hour in—Trump doubled down on tariffs, floated taking over Greenland and reclaiming the Panama Canal, and took aim at U.S. foreign assistance.What do Trump’s policies mean for U.S. allies and adversaries? Will his supporters tolerate the economic pain of tariffs? And as China pushes back against U.S. pressure, is a trade war—or worse—on the horizon?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones @morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/3YHMqqkGZ6o Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess break down the tense Oval Office meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—and why it went so badly. With major disagreements over Russia’s role and the terms of a ceasefire, Zelensky quickly turned to European allies, sparking talk of a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine without U.S. leadership.Can Zelensky and Trump find a way to move forward, or has this meeting widened the divide? As Europe signals a greater role in Ukraine’s defense, will they deliver more than rhetoric? And is Trump’s approach placating Russia—or pressuring Zelensky into a deal he doesn’t want?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJones @morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/SPXlhkpfne8 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Lester, Morgan, and Amy break down the latest developments in Ukraine after a busy week in Washington with a rotating cast of world leaders. With French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in D.C. emphasizing the importance of American support to ward off Russian aggression in Europe, the Trump administration is hosting Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy today to discuss a deal granting U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical minerals—one that potentially offers little in the way of security guarantees for Kyiv.Is a potential critical minerals agreement a step toward a ceasefire, or just political theater? Are Russia and the U.S. positioning themselves for a settlement while leaving Ukraine out of the equation? And is Washington aligning with Russia on recent UN votes a sign of shifting U.S. priorities?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@NotTVJessJones @morganlroach@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Ln9165W7PSw Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, Morgan, and Andrew dive into the growing threat to undersea cables—critical infrastructure carrying 95% of global internet traffic. From Taiwan detaining a Chinese-crewed vessel suspected of sabotage to Chinese and Russian-linked ships damaging cables in the Baltic Sea, these incidents highlight a dangerous pattern of grey-zone warfare.Are China and Russia testing Western response thresholds? How prepared is the U.S. to respond to these attacks? And what steps should the Trump administration take to deter future sabotage and protect critical infrastructure?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-undersea-cable-penghu-islands-china-14bfd6ddad184d77ae45068fee9b37d2 https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/25/asia/taiwan-detains-ship-undersea-cable-intl-hnk/index.html Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@AndrewBorene@morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/PJVPqdtUVDE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, Morgan, and Jess break down the results of Germany’s federal elections and the seismic shift in the country’s political landscape. While the CDU secured about 29%,  the far-right AfD doubled its support, making the Bundestag more fractured than ever—potentially complicating defense spending and transatlantic cooperation.What does the rise of AfD mean for Germany’s role in NATO and its relationship with the U.S.? As CDU leader Friedrich Merz signals a move toward greater independence from Washington, is Germany preparing to stand on its own? And with European leaders questioning U.S. commitment, is this election a sign of a larger shift in the U.S.-EU dynamic?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones @morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/kf1mrYI05mc Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jess, and Algene discuss the retirement of Senator Mitch McConnell after 42 years in Congress—marking the end of an era for Republican leadership and a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy. As one of the longest-serving and most influential Senate leaders in history, McConnell championed alliances, engagement abroad, and the "peace through strength" doctrine.What does his departure mean for U.S. national security strategy? How will his absence shape the Senate’s role in foreign policy? And how did McConnell’s tenure impact the Senate as an institution?Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@NotTVJessJones @AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/YQggnAywLc8 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Amy, and Andrew discuss the rising concerns over DeepSeek, a Chinese AI chatbot positioning itself as a competitor to OpenAI, Gemini, and other U.S.-developed platforms. The U.S. has banned DeepSeek from federal systems, and South Korea recently announced it will block new downloads, with both countries underscoring data privacy and national security concerns.Is China pulling ahead in AI development? What are the concerns regarding DeepSeek and other Chinese-developed apps like TikTok? What might the Trump Administration responses mean for larger U.S.-China relations?Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/17/business/south-korea-deepseek-china-ai.htmlhttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/us-lawmakers-move-ban-deepseek-government-devices-chinese-surveillance-rcna190965https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2025/01/how-deepseek-changed-future-aiand-what-means-national-security/402594/Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@AndrewBorene@NotTVJessJones @amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here:  https://youtu.be/Vrj2TbV468E Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Amy, Andrew, and Jess break down the latest push for peace in Ukraine as negotiations unfold in Saudi Arabia. With President Trump advocating for talks, uncertainty looms over who is involved—Ukraine’s role remains unclear, and European allies are scrambling to protect their interests with an emergency summit in Paris.Are these talks the first step toward ending the war, or is the West handing Putin a victory? Could European troops on the ground shift the balance? And what message does this send to U.S. allies about standing up to aggression?Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/16/us/politics/ukraine-zelensky-trump-russia.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/16/world/europe/vance-europe-putin-russia.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/02/16/us-russia-ukraine-war-talks-saudi-arabia/ https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-slowing-advance-reasons-9debf4e1 Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@AndrewBorene@NotTVJessJones @amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here:  https://youtu.be/HN6S35rIiQM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Bishop, and Algene unpack Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington and his high-profile meetings with both President Trump and Elon Musk. With defense cooperation, tariffs, energy imports, and tech visas on the table, the visit signals growing ties between the U.S. and India—wrapped in a public display of political friendship.Will this “bromance” lead to deeper defense collaboration and secure supply chains? Can India help the U.S. maintain its edge in AI and counter China’s influence? And does Musk’s meeting with Modi blur the lines between business and government?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://apnews.com/article/trump-india-modi-visit-washington-tariffs-83d5f6af65f923dc4feb3f38338c888d https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj91d3jkpvlo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c23ndleveymo Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones @morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here:  https://youtu.be/ndk73b3GO28 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.