Episode 354: Ballot Boxes from Paris to Tehran

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Jeffrey discuss two pivotal elections - the French Parliamentary and the Iranian Presidential Election.  French President Emmanuel Macron, after his party was trounced in the European Parliamentary elections, called for a snap election. In which after the first round of voting on Sunday saw Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally party take first place with all eyes on the run-off on Sunday, July 9th.  In Iran, elections were held in the wake of the death of President Ebrahim Raisi.  After the first round of voting, two candidates remain for the Presidency - with ostensible “reformer” Masoud Pezeshkian leading over Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator for Iran who is viewed as the more hawkish of the two, and with another round of voting to follow. How does the French election impact support for Ukraine and the wider EU? What are the implications of Iranian elections on regional stability? How should the next President prepare for the outcome of these elections?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://apnews.com/article/france-election-far-right-macron-193233ade08821a71731980d8a17eb4a https://apnews.com/article/france-election-far-right-macron-f07061a929ed8eaad0e714e948159cab https://www.politico.eu/article/france-legislative-election-marine-le-pen-emmanuel-macron-national-rally-jordan-bardella/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-presidential-election-pakeshkian-jalili/ https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/06/29/irans-supreme-leader-is-terrified-of-people-power https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-election-president-voters.html Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@NotTVJessJones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/NicQDXSPF_M Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Martha, and Matt discuss the recent violent protests in Kenya’s capital of Nairobi over a tax bill that would increase taxes on bread, fuel, and other necessities, which was aimed at alleviating the country’s massive debt burden. Protestors stormed the nation’s parliament building, setting parts ablaze, and clashes with police and military forces have left more than 300 injured and 22 dead. Kenyan President William Ruto has now abandoned the bill but vows to quash the continuing unrest “at whatever cost.” With Kenya being recently announced as a U.S. major Non-NATO ally, how do these protests impact U.S.-Kenyan relations? What are the implications of these protests on the stability of the region and our ongoing counter-terrorism efforts? What does this unrest mean for the recently deployed Kenyan police mission to violence-stricken Haiti?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gg30gm0x2o https://apnews.com/article/kenya-finance-bill-taxes-protests-396382bdac0fc18dfec7cd3003ece35b https://apnews.com/article/kenya-protests-finance-bill-33a20092285f1d663264f7b0d513e1da https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/25/world/africa/kenya-protests-tax-parliament.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/world/africa/kenya-protests-taxes-president-ruto.html Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@NotTVJessJones@marthamillerdc @WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/RzPb1EQY27w Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jess, Bishop, and Amy discuss Wikileaks founder Julian Assange's plea deal with the Department of Justice in which he agreed to plead guilty to one count of espionage, in exchange for a sentence of five years in prison, which - due to time served in the U.K. - means he is a free man. Assange also refused to set foot on the mainland United States, appearing instead in Saipan (an American territory). Is this plea deal justice served? How does Assange’s case impact future accountability for classified leaks? Should Americans who are concerned about free speech be focusing on Assange or the imprisoned Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.wsj.com/politics/julian-assange-plea-deal-c392069c https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/25/julian-assange-plea-deal-updates/ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/25/us/politics/assange-plea-deal-press-freedom.html https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/06/24/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-will-plead-guilty-deal-us-and-be-freed-prison.html https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/06/julian-assange-plea-deal-pointless-prosecution/678787/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@BishopGarrison@NotTVJessJones@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/eld5_Exe9Pg Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Martha, and Jeffrey discuss two ongoing stories – increased border clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, which have raised fears in the region that the escalating tensions could turn into all-out war, as well as the Houthis ongoing attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. Should Israel and the United States be worried about escalation with Hezbollah? How would the group rate the Biden Administration’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East? Has the U.S. effectively responded to the Houthi threat in the Red Sea?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/23/israel-iron-dome-hezbollah-war-lebanon https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4735840-israeli-defense-minister-gallant-us/ https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-iraq-syria-hezbollah-fighters-iran-1e3359917f252862f4ed3d4b3df1d43e https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-rebels-ship-attacks-israel-hamas-war-3c1756a60efb061960b6eda1bc580834 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ship-attack-houthi-red-sea-uss-eisenhower-rcna158406 Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/jI9l_svw32g Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Jeffrey discuss Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to North Korea where he met with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un, the first time President Putin has been to North Korea in over 20 years. At the end of the visit, Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense agreement marking the strongest connection between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War.What does this agreement mean for possible technology sharing between Russia and North Korea? How does this agreement impact regional security on the Korean peninsula? Will this agreement dampen Russia and China’s no-limits partnership?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/20/world/asia/china-russia-north-korea.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/20/russia-china-iran-north-korea-alignment/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-the-putin-pyongyang-axis-means-a95799c9?st=4b5epti79ncjynr&reflink=article_whatsapp_share https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-kim-jong-un-putin-military-assistance-war-d9bb8aee7eb1a692b932337578fb3e30 Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/56HlPDDyYDc Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Amy discuss the two-day peace summit in Switzerland dedicated to forging an end to the war in Ukraine with over 90 countries attending, including Vice President Kamala Harris on behalf of the U.S. The summit concluded with a communique reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity, among other things.  Notably absent from the summit were Russia and China. Of those who did attend, several countries including India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates did not sign the communique.Without Russia’s participation, does this summit mean anything? Are there implications of countries not re-affirming core principles, like sovereignty, for the international system? What does this summit and its communique mean for further aid to Ukraine?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/16/europe/ukraine-peace-summit-switzerland-intl/index.html https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-switzerland-war-conference-burgenstock-568cafee5fbe9c3b19b79b041583a5d6 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/swiss-conference-ukraine-rcna157400 Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@amykmitchell@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Afe172_1h90 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Bishop discuss the arrival of a Russian flotilla, including a nuclear-powered submarine to the port of Havana, Cuba. This Russian show of force comes weeks after President Biden authorized Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided weapons for strikes within Russian territory.  Amidst the arrival of Russian ships, a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine made a “routine port visit” to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.What do we make of the timing of Russia’s visit to Cuba? Was the U.S. sub arriving at Guantanamo Bay an intentional show of force? What is in store for future U.S.-Cuban relations?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/12/americas/russian-navy-cuba-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.cnn.com/2024/06/06/americas/cuba-russian-ships-submarine-visit-intl-latam/index.html https://apnews.com/article/russia-cuba-us-submarine-ukraine-bac0519f4fdbe30a5ef210447d50a671 Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@BishopGarrison@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/3jBT4DTpqx4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Bishop discuss the outcome of the European Union’s parliamentary elections where 720 seats were up for grabs. After four days of voting, the centrist European People’s Party (EPP) was the biggest single winner with 186 seats. However, far-right parties are also set to win 150 seats many of which came from France, Italy, and Germany.What are the implications of this election for the U.S.’ trans-Atlantic policy? How does this election impact Europe's support of Ukraine? Do the gains by the far-right in the European parliament foreshadow national election wins?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/10/european-parliament-election-results-takeaways/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/10/eu-parliament-election-results-france-germany/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/world/europe/giorgia-meloni-italy-g7.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/european-union-vote-delivers-shift-to-right-in-blow-to-french-and-german-governments-8f1c0f23 https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/europe/european-elections-explainer-intl/index.html Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@BishopGarrison@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/APanvWqyDdI Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Morgan discuss the ongoing civil war in Sudan between the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) which has displaced over 8 million people. Most recently, the RSF assaulted Wad al-Nour village in the central Al-Jazira state on Wednesday, killing over 150 civilians, including women and children. This attack reinforces the assessment by the U.S. State Department in December 2023 that war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing are ongoing in Sudan. What are the wider regional implications of Sudan’s civil war? Why is Sudan’s stability important for U.S. national security? What are the implications of the many foreign players in the conflict?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw99plg01neo https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/06/africa/sudanese-government-accuses-militia-massacre-intl/index.html https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudans-rsf-kills-least-100-attack-village-activists-say-2024-06-06/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/05/sudan-civil-war-us-envoy-crisis-east-africa/ https://www.state.gov/war-crimes-crimes-against-humanity-and-ethnic-cleansing-determination-in-sudan/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/C9l38TKun_o Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Morgan discuss the 80th anniversary of D-Day, which marked the beginning of the end of Nazi-occupied Europe.  President Biden joined many heads of state, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, in France yesterday to honor and remember those who paid the ultimate sacrifice for freedom and democracy.  In remarks, President Biden drew parallels between the allied fight in WWII and the need to once again defend democracy in the face of tyranny. At the 90th anniversary of D-Day, there will likely be no living survivors of the invasion left, how does this loss of human connection to the past impact the lessons we learn? Will D-Day invigorate Western democracies to support Ukraine in the face of Russia?  Should we worry that the lessons of WWII and D-Day are lost to most?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/world/europe/biden-dday-ukraine-russia.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/06/politics/biden-d-day-american-leadership/index.html https://www.politico.eu/article/france-u-turn-invite-russia-d-day-memorial-ceremony/ https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-oil-refinery-drones-zelenskyy-9581f4f0da1b638070e6f1ca98bb03ef https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-point-du-hoc-bc97ae35237e222caee55033ddb3588f Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/yS9d8GrIoEg Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.