Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 9-Apr

US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. For the second straight day, the market's bounce attempt ran out of gas, though not much behind today's weakness, with rates the easiest excuse as the 2Y is back near year to date highs. The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index notably improved month over month, hitting its highest level since April 2022, while employment remained in contraction.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 12bps, 58bps, and 115bps respectively. Today's $13B 20Y auction stronger than expected after last week's string of weak auctions. Latest Fed Beige Book said economy expanded slightly, while price increases were little changed since late February, but consumer spending reports were mixed. Reports Biden will propose a big hike in tariffs on China steel and aluminum.

US equities finished mostly lower in up-and-down Tuesday trading. S&P ended down for a third-straight session with equal-weight S&P a notable laggard to the official index. Tone continued to be driven by hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations alongside solid economic data and sticky inflation. Another busy day of Fedspeak with Powell noting recent data shows lack of further progress on inflation.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels. Some post-bell strength began reversing early in the session, and stocks came under pressure for much of the afternoon. March retail sales beat, while ex-autos and fuel and control group sales also ahead.

US equities were lower as the S&P 500 finished down for a second-straight week, while the Nasdaq capped off a third-straight weekly decline, and its fifth in the past six weeks. The biggest story of the week revolved around inflation data. Several pieces of the bullish arguments remain intact, particularly early earnings season takeaways that suggest a firmer macro backdrop and strong early beat rates.

US equities ended mostly higher in Thursday trading, just off best levels, after shaking off early-morning weakness. In-line core PPI print provided some relief following a third straight hotter core CPI reading that drove a meaningful – and further – hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations. Renewed momentum and growth outperformance is the other big story, with some likely help from the recent flurry of AI headlines and upbeat sell-side research.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though off worst levels that followed this morning's CPI report, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 109bps, 95bps, and 84bps respectively. Risk off on hotter CPI prints, with both headline and core CPI increasing 0.40% m/m in March, ahead of expectations. Today's 10Y auction weaker than expected, following yesterday's sale of 3-year notes that also tailed. Crude hit session highs after report US and allies believe an Iran missile strike on Israel is imminent.

US equities ended mostly higher in Tuesday trading, losing early morning gains around midday before recovering some into the close. The market is in waiting mode for several potential catalysts later this week, particularly the March CPI on Wednesday. NFIB small business optimism declined to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the 27th consecutive month below the 50-year average, with inflation cited as biggest problem.

US equities ended narrowly mixed in Monday's trading session with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq hovering around unchanged though small caps outperformed. The NY Fed one-year inflation expectations were unchanged for third-straight month, though increased at the 3Y horizon. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee commented today that recent jobs data confirms that the economy is strong, and noted late last week that he sees continued high inflation in housing services as the biggest danger to the inflation picture.

Major US equity indices were down for the week, though helped by a solid post-NFP gain on Friday. The week's big theme was the notable backup in Treasury yields driven by some firmer economic data (particularly a strong March jobs report and a hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading). It was also another week overflowing with Fedspeak, again centered on an appearance by Chair Powell and again doing little to shift the broad narrative of a possible start to rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting.