CERAWeek: War, energy security, and the redrawing of global trade flows

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was long considered one of the energy market's great hypotheticals -- until it became a reality. In this special CERAWeek series episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte sits down with Dave Ernsberger, president of S&P Global Energy, to examine what may be the most significant energy supply disruption ever and how it's forcing a fundamental redrawing of the global energy map. With around 20% of the world's oil and LNG usually passing through this key chokepoint, the impact has been asymmetrical and severe -- India faces LPG shortages, Asian refiners are struggling with profitability, and fuel supplies are tightening sharply. The conversation also explores how this crisis is accelerating a structural shift in energy markets, particularly East of Suez, where the energy trifecta of affordability, security and sustainability has been upended. Ernsberger also looks at how the conflict is intersecting with the AI and data center boom -- creating inflationary pressures that reach from the Middle East to different states in the US.

Carbon accounting — the math of how emissions are calculated, reported and compared — is poised to move to the forefront of global trade and energy markets. Three critical developments in 2026 are forcing action: the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, revisions to the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, and new industry-driven product-level carbon accounting efforts. In this episode, host Eklavya Gupte explores why harmonizing carbon accounting matters now, what's at stake, and how the commodity industry is responding to the urgent need for standardized, comparable emissions data. The discussion features S&P Global Energy Horizons analysts Kevin Birn, head of carbon research and the center of emissions excellence; Roman Kramarchuk, head of integrated narratives and policy analysis; and James Salo, head of partnerships and strategic initiatives.

California utility PG&E is studying the impacts of electrification to understand and prepare for a future grid with high levels of distributed energy resources, and significantly higher power demand.   But although PG&E expects to spend about $25 billion by 2040 on grid upgrades, the distribution portion of customers' electric bills could decrease up to 25% over that period as added revenue from increased power usage more than covers the investment costs.   In this episode, host Dan Testa speaks with Quinn Nakayama, PG&E's senior director of grid research, innovation and development, about this process and how the utility is deploying technology to make electrification easier for customers, particularly by lowering the cost of upgrades necessary to charge electric vehicles at home.  

For several years, Iran, Venezuela, and Russia have relied on a sprawling network of aging tankers—known as the shadow fleet—to keep their oil flowing despite Western sanctions. Now, the EU is proposing its most aggressive move yet: a sweeping ban on maritime services that could cut off insurance, brokerage, and port access for vessels carrying Russian crude. This comes at a time when the Venezuelan shadow fleet has largely been replaced by mainstream tanker operators, while the US continues to impose new restrictions on Iranian vessels. Both developments raise fresh questions about the future of these rogue tankers. In this episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte explores whether the shadow fleet can survive tighter sanctions and what the consequences might be for global energy security, trade flows, and environmental safety. Joining the conversation are Kelly Norways and Max Lin, two journalists from Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, who have been tracking the shadow fleet's evolution over the past few years. They break down the mechanics of this shipping network, explain how the EU's proposed ban differs from the price cap system, and reveal the growing risks posed by a fleet of vessels operating outside international safety standards. Related content Shadow Fleet: How illicit shipping networks broke global oil trade https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/videos/crude-oil/230925-shadow-fleet-how-illicit-s… G7 tankers return to Russia on weak Urals despite security worries https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/011626-g7-tankers-return-to-r… G7 crude tankers' share in Russia falls to four-month low as EU plans full ban https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/020926-g7-crude-tankers-shar… INTERACTIVE: Seaborne trade in Russian oil under G7 price cap https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/030724-interactive-russia-cr…

The European Hydrogen Bank is meant to be Europe's big enabler for large-scale renewable hydrogen production, so why did the EU's second auction fail to deliver on its promise? In this episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte speaks with James Burgess, senior reporter at S&P Global Energy Platts, and Matthew Hodgkinson, senior principal analyst at S&P Global Energy Horizons, who explain why so many projects withdrew from the auction process and explore what's next for the EU's flagship model for kick-starting the green hydrogen sector. Our experts assess the challenges facing the nascent market and take a look at other recent developments across the region, including the latest from the H2Global import auctions and how the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is affecting hydrogen trade. Related content: News feature: European hydrogen industry digests failure of second EU auction H2Global news (Subscriber content): H2Global European hydrogen import auction opens global lot with Eur353/MWh cap Price assessments (Subscriber content): Spain Alkaline Renewable PPA Derived Hydrogen Eur/kg SARHE00

Offshore wind once looked like a natural play for oil majors: big offshore projects, complex engineering, and familiar operating conditions. But as costs and interest rates have risen, the sector's economics have started to clash with the companies' return expectations. This has revealed a business model where capital is invested upfront, payback is slow, and the competitive advantage often lies in power market and contracting expertise, rather than just offshore execution. In this episode, host Eklavya Gupte is joined by Alex Blackburne, senior reporter at S&P Global Energy, to unpack the shifting strategies of European oil majors in offshore wind.  We also hear from Julio Dal Poz, managing director in the energy transition practice at FTI Consulting, who explains why offshore wind has proven to be a challenging fit for companies accustomed to quicker returns and greater upside potential.

As AI-driven electricity demand surges and companies race to decarbonize, environmental commodity markets are growing swiftly. Host Eklavya Gupte interviews John Melby, CEO of Xpansiv, who provides insight into what it takes to create the digital trading infrastructure for markets ranging from carbon credits to renewable energy certificates and power purchase agreements. We also hear from Marie-louise du Bois, director for energy transition price reporting at Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, who discusses the challenges of pricing these evolving markets — from the simultaneous fragmentation and convergence of carbon markets to the rise of biomethane and even nuclear certificates. The discussion also covers how large corporates are managing their carbon footprints as they build AI infrastructure and why carbon-differentiated commodities could reshape global trade.

Greenland has suddenly emerged as a focal point in the global competition for critical minerals and energy. This episode explores the Arctic island's strategic importance through conversations examining how resource competition and geopolitics are converging in one of Earth's most remote locations. Host Eklavya Gupte speaks with Kip Keen, senior reporter at S&P Global Energy, on Greenland's mineral potential and the sobering realities facing companies that have invested there. Euan Sadden, senior editor at S&P Global Energy, interviews Jørgen T. Hammeken-Holm, deputy minister at Greenland's ministry of business, mineral resources and energy, about the regulatory environment and investor response to growing interest in the island's mineral wealth. Euan also speaks with Nicolas Jouan, a defense and security analyst at RAND, who explains why Greenland has become such a strategic focal point in a new era of resource security.

In this episode, host Eklavya Gupte examines how the copper market is facing an unprecedented supply crunch driven by the accelerating pace of electrification. Patricia Barreto, senior principal analyst from the metals & mining research team at S&P Global Energy CERA, breaks down the numbers behind copper's critical role in the energy transition and sheds light on why copper prices soared to record highs in January. Eric Saderholm, managing director of exploration at American Pacific Mining Corp., explains the on-ground realities of bringing new copper supply online and discusses how recent policy changes are affecting the industry. The conversation also covers China's dominance in smelting capacity, US critical mineral policies, and why the industry's ability to scale production will determine whether the global energy transition succeeds or stalls.

The nature-based carbon removals industry is undergoing a scientific and technological transformation to restore credibility in the voluntary carbon market. In this episode, host Eklavya Gupte speaks with Santiago Canel Soria, senior price reporter at S&P Global Energy Platts, about how project developers are deploying advanced monitoring systems and rigorous methodologies to address past market challenges as corporate buyers demand higher integrity offsets. Santiago speaks with Saif Bhatti, CEO of Renoster, and Christopher Kilner, head of biosphere science at Isometric, who explain how scientific advances and risk-management strategies are establishing nature-based removals as a credible, scalable, and cost-effective pillar of the VCM. The discussion covers the role of insurance in carbon markets, the challenge of operationalizing rigorous science at scale, and why nature-based solutions remain essential for corporates with net-zero targets. Related content: Platts Carbon Credit Price Assessments Carbon Markets Specifications Guide  Voluntary carbon markets: how they work, how they're priced and who's involved Price Assessments (Subscriber content): Platts CRC ACRCA00 Platts Biochar, US ATCCA00 Platts  Biochar, India INBCY00 Platts Blue Carbon AJLUB00