Yield Curve Control

What a wild sequence of events leaving us no shortage of subject matters to drink to. I'd say we should start by addressing the elephant in the room, but looking around the room, it seems like there's multiple elephants. Starting with the bond market, has anyone noticed how the 10-yr yield (among others) continues to surge to new highs? Additionally, new trade restrictions or export bans are starting to test the resiliency of the global supply chain. Wonder if that has anything to do with that subtle thing going on in Iran. Additionally, we're right in the heat of election season. What else can we toss on the fire? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

It's very rare for us to see yields spike on the long end of the Treasury curve without some sort of headline event or shock. However, the bear steepener has been creeping higher all summer, and with outstanding U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion, apparently that was the benchmark the bond market needed to wake up with one hell of a hangover. Other things happened too like jobs reports, Jackson Hole, and supply driven inflation, but we'll drink to all those eventually too. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

Not only have the heat waves this summer ramped up the temperature, but the hot inflation prints and equity valuations have also brought the heat. Fundamentally, things seem to still hold their figure, but the question remains, have investors become too over-zealous? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

The months keep getting more eventful and flying by faster. For starters, we are now in the Kevin Warsh era as the chair of the Fed; and as this gets published we are entering into the IPO summer frenzy. Yield volatility continues to persist and this time, it's not because due to private credit. Rather, a strong jobs print and hotter than expected (by others, not us) inflation is now pushing rate expectations higher. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over 60 days now and end-of-war agreements only seem to stall. However, in the Month of April, markets have soared to new all time highs and have even seen high market cap sectors go on historic win streaks. Is this a really forward thinking reaction, or just a dead cat bounce? On top of that, we're in the middle of a wildly important week with five of the largest US companies reporting earnings, news around OPEC, The Fed, and GDP numbers. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

What a whirldwind of events that has taken place in the last few weeks. Geopolitical tensions surfacing in Iran is certainly causing a shock to global supply chains and energy prices, putting the Federal Reserve (as well as other central banks) ini handcuffs. However, yield volatility in the fixed income markets seem to be hinting at the idea of less visibility moving forward...whatever that's supposed to mean.Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

Sorry for getting this out so late! Had a lot of life events taking place. I promise the next one will be released within 2 days of being recorded! But a lot has happened since our last drink together, namely a GDP print, inflation print, and a rather significant supreme court ruling. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

I guess it really didn't take long for the volatility spike to hit the markets. On the same (or opposite side of) token, it also didn't take long for the volatility to go away. With the current administration moving as fast as they do, it's tough to keep up with all things happening, from Davos, to the Fed, to manufacturing numbers, to executive orders on Credit Cards and Real Estate, staying sober has never been more challenging!Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

Greetings everyone, just wanted to hop on to do some semi-immediate reactions to what happened in Venezuela last weekend. Episode was recorded on 1/6/26.Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!

Happy New Year everyone! Hope you're all ready for our 2026 economic outlook. I should warn you, we were drinking during the recording of this (obviously) so we hardly even remember what was said. Regardless, feel free to hold us to our word and point out what we got wrong in a few weeks/months. You can do so at:Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y’all!