S3E1: Markets are volatile

Why do stocks drop after good earnings? Sandisk was up 460% this year, beat earnings, and still fell 13%. Reddit grew sales 53% and dropped 29%. So how do you know if it's too late to buy? Cisco vs. Nvidia, the report card and lemonade stand explanations, why Google's AI answers hit Reddit, my Netflix lesson, and the Too Late Test: four questions to ask before you buy any stock after a big run. I run it live on Micron, a stock I own. Plus what almost 100 years of data says about buying at all-time highs, and when to sell a winner.Send me your question for the show: [email protected] The Clinic: https://www.theinvestingclinic.com 100% of The Clinic's profits after expenses go to charities that benefit children. X / Twitter: @OGDocHollywood Education only, not personal investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of money. 

Netflix raised your bill and made a lot more money than a year ago. The stock still fell to a two-year low, down about half from its high. So is the company that killed Blockbuster on sale? Or is YouTube about to do to Netflix what Netflix did to Blockbuster?In this Case File, I take Netflix's latest earnings apart in plain English: what's working, what spooked Wall Street, and how I decide whether a fallen stock is a bargain or a trap. I also tell you what I'm doing with my own 500 shares, and why.In this episode:• The subscription roll call: how many of these are you paying for? (The average American adult spends about $111 a month.)• Netflix earnings in plain English: sales up about 12%, profits up even more, and a record $4.8 billion stock buyback• The $50 million meeting where Blockbuster laughed Netflix out of the room, and how Blockbuster almost won anyway• Why Netflix walked away from Warner Bros., and got paid $2.8 billion for losing• The 3 reasons the stock fell: ads running late, a softer forecast, and YouTube• YouTube vs. Netflix: who's winning your evenings• Bargain or trap? Pricing power, the price tag, and why buybacks grow your slice• Why I'm selling my Netflix shares: tax-loss harvesting and the wash sale rule, explainedTell me in the comments: if you could only keep one streaming service, which one would it be? And which one are you canceling first?Got a question for Doc? Leave it below or email [email protected]. I'll pick one each week and give it a second opinion on the show.Keep learning with The Clinic: https://www.theinvestingclinic.com/rxResearch, education, investing tools, and a community of people getting better at investing together. 100% of The Clinic's profits after expenses go to charities that benefit children.Email: [email protected] / Twitter: @OGDocHollywoodThis episode is for education only and is not personal investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of money. Tax rules depend on your situation, so talk to a tax professional before you harvest a loss.At the time of recording, I own 500 shares of Netflix and plan to sell some for a tax loss.

CoreWeave doubled its sales. Its stock still fell about 25% in one week. Is it the Blockbuster of AI? I'm not a buyer, and I'll show you why.I break down the AI debt scare in plain English: what a 15% bond yield really means, how a company can survive and still be a bad investment, and why a hot gas price report knocked down tech stocks. Plus what the big banks say about American shoppers, Social Security's 3.6% raise for 2027, and why I'm looking at robots and space instead.The Clinic: https://www.theinvestingclinic.com100% of The Clinic's profits after expenses go to charities that benefit children.Email: [email protected] / Twitter: @OGDocHollywoodEducation only, not personal investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of money.

The S&P 500 hit a record. That doesn’t make your mortgage cheaper or leave you more money after filling the tank.So what’s the market seeing? And how much longer can companies pass higher costs along before customers start pulling back?This week on Doc’s Investing Rx, I follow the money. Delta expects a much bigger fuel bill and cut its earnings outlook—even with strong sales. That’s worth understanding whether you own the stock or you’re trying to get your family home for the holidays.I get into oil, Treasury yields, mortgage rates, and the dollar. I also unpack the OpenAI revenue report, what investors are paying for AI growth, Social Security’s coming adjustment, and what bank earnings and retail sales can tell us about how Americans are holding up.And yes, I address the crash question. I’ll explain what concerns me, the three developments that would make me more cautious, and what would change my view.Follow Doc’s Investing Rx and send this episode to someone trying to make sense of this market.Want to go deeper? Join me at The Investing Clinic. Start free and explore the work. Paid memberships offer research, education, investing tools, and Discord discussion and alerts, with access depending on your tier.100% of profits after expenses are donated to charities benefiting children.Market review through October 9, 2026. Educational commentary, not personalized investment advice.

Stocks rallied after a weak jobs report. Treasury yields finished the week higher. The dollar strengthened. Brent oil stayed above $100.How much relief did we actually get?This week on Doc’s Investing Rx, I connect the market headlines to your borrowing costs, household budget, and investments and take a hard look at a company I own: Nike.A familiar brand and a falling stock price can make a turnaround look tempting. But what does the business still have to prove?In this episode:• Why stocks celebrated slower hiring and why bond yields deserve attention• Oil, diesel reserves, and the costs that reach you beyond the gas pump• What DXY tells us about the dollar and what it doesn’t• Nike’s earnings outlook, valuation, and the risks of betting on a recovery• Micron’s growth and the different questions facing AI investorsJoin The Clinic:https://www.theinvestingclinic.comExplore free material, research, education, investing tools, and membership options with Discord discussions and alerts. Access varies by membership level.100% of profits after expenses are donated to charities benefiting children.Subscribe to Doc’s Investing Rx for weekly market analysis in plain English. If you found this useful, share it with someone who’s considering buying a stock simply because it used to trade higher.Follow Doc on X:https://x.com/OGDocHollywoodDisclosure: I own 500 Nike shares and three $60-strike Nike LEAPS expiring in 2028. My last confirmed Micron disclosure was 244 shares as of September 27, 2026.Coverage: Week ending October 2, 2026. The $100 oil reference is to Brent crude, not WTI. This episode provides general investing education, not individualized financial advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Purchased options can lose the entire premium paid.

You saved more. Your retirement account had a good week. So why does the next big step still feel harder to afford?This week on Doc’s Investing Rx, Doc follows the gap between a rising stock market and the decisions Americans face at home. We connect higher financing costs to the AI rally, Meta’s newest products, Micron’s upcoming earnings, and the political developments affecting energy and trade.The question running through it all: who has the financial flexibility to keep moving forward and what are investors paying for that advantage?We finish with one question to ask before your next major financial commitment.Explore The Clinic’s research, education, tools, and membership options at https://www.theinvestingclinic.com. One hundred percent of profits after expenses are donated to charities benefiting children.Week ending September 27, 2026. Educational commentary, not individualized investment advice. Disclosure: Doc owns Meta call options and 244 Micron shares.

CPI vs PCE, Inflation, and AI StocksDoc opens by admitting he wrongly predicted the Fed would hold rates; the Fed instead unanimously hiked 25 bps to 3.75%–4.0% and signaled more hikes via the dot plot, while the 10-year Treasury rose above 5%. He explains his mistakes: focusing on oil as a supply shock rather than the risk of it spreading into broader prices and expectations, and relying on core CPI instead of the Fed’s target measure, PCE (headline PCE 3.7%, core PCE 3.3%). He breaks down four inflation ideas: inflation measures the rate of change, personal inflation differs by spending basket, core vs headline is about trend, and CPI isn’t PCE. He then covers practical impacts on credit cards, savings rates, mortgages, HELOCs, car loans, and 401(k) behavior. Finally, he analyzes the week’s AI narrative whiplash—calls to slow frontier AI, a chip-stock selloff, and renewed competitive pressure—urging investors to follow capex, orders, and guidance.00:00 Owning the Fed Miss01:44 Wrong Question on Oil02:55 CPI vs PCE Wakeup03:53 Episode Roadmap05:49 Fed Vote and Dot Plot07:52 Bond Yields and Markets09:41 Inflation Speedometer12:59 Personal Inflation Baskets15:38 Core Inflation Explained20:29 Why Fed Hiked Anyway23:26 Policy Risks and Timing24:45 Clinic Plug and Money Impact25:51 Credit Cards Hit First26:29 Credit Card APR Reality27:15 High Yield Savings Checklist28:46 Mortgage Rates Explained30:14 HELOCs and Car Loans31:02 401k Emotions and Process34:10 AI Safety vs Competition37:39 Chip Thesis and Evidence41:56 AI Meets Cost of Money43:15 Mailbag Fed Accountability45:01 Recession Signals to Watch46:09 Key Takeaways Recap48:37 Final Thoughts and Sign Off

Doc previews Wednesday’s 2:00 PM ET Federal Reserve decision, noting futures markets price an 80%+ chance of a hike while he takes a contrarian view that the Fed holds, likely paired with hawkish guidance. He explains the case for hiking—above-target inflation, rising inflation expectations, strong labor data, and the need to protect Fed credibility—then argues for holding because much of current inflation is energy- and war-driven, households are strained by high borrowing costs, financial conditions have already tightened via messaging, and the committee can wait while watching expectations and yields. He urges viewers to focus less on the Fed and more on personal APRs and savings rates, avoid emotional trading, and write down investment theses. He connects rates to AI by highlighting Oracle’s surge in AI cloud demand alongside massive CapEx and the importance of how AI buildouts are funded.00:00 Fed Day Stakes01:22 What Rates Can’t Fix03:10 Show Setup and Plan04:03 Three Camps on Rates05:52 Case for a Hike06:43 Credibility and Expectations10:34 Why Hold Instead12:00 Energy Shock Inflation14:46 Household Stress Signals17:26 Tightening by Talking19:44 Hawkish Hold Scenario22:53 Your Real Rate Problem23:27 APR Math Reality26:00 Fix Savings Yield27:26 What Changes for You28:55 Budget Breathing Room29:16 Car Loans And Debt29:54 Rates Versus Stocks31:10 Tesla Emotion Trap32:32 Marvell Surgical Investing35:32 Time Horizon And Indexing36:22 The Clinic = Charity37:38 AI Boom Funding Costs42:04 Fed And AI Connection45:04 How This Thesis Fails48:05 What To Watch Wednesday50:01 Five Actions To Take52:19 Watch Your Own Numbers54:05 Final Wrap And Disclaimer

Doc and Pablo take a dive into the current market volatility and the key to navigating the unrest heading into midterm elections.

In this episode, Doc is joined by Pablo, as they break down the volatility and how they are positioned for the weeks ahead.