America's coming civil war

Malcolm is on the ground in the US in the final days of the battle for the White House. The race is tight. If Donald J Trump wins, what would a second term look like? What would it mean for Australia? With the prospect of Trump riding back into Washington for another four years, Malcolm tells the story of his own interactions with Trump and how he knew immediately the best strategy to adopt to take on a notorious bully. This is an incredible insight from a former prime minister who dealt directly with the man who could soon become the most powerful leader in the free world again.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The clock of war is ticking in Taiwan – and it’s up to the west to stop it. Matt Pottinger worked as a reporter for the Wall Street Journal in China. He's a former U.S. Marine who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and was President Trump's Deputy National Security Advisor.  In recent decades, Taiwan has cemented itself as a cornerstone of technological manufacturing, producing chips essential to almost every aspect of modern life. It is also of immense geographical importance in the region and vital to international trade routes.  The government in Taiwan, still called the Republic of China,  does not dare to declare itself an independent Taiwan for fear of provoking an invasion from mainland China.  In this episode, Matt Pottinger calls for urgent and deliberate action—in the form of military hard power—to stop China from invading Taiwan and prevent a geopolitical catastrophe for the world. Available on LiSTNRSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's unshakable determination to unite mainland China and Taiwan is one of our most significant threats to geopolitical stability.  Shirley Lin, a Taipei native, is the founder and chair of the Center for Asia Pacific Resilience and Innovation, or CAPRI. For decades, she's been at the forefront of defending democracy in Taiwan, a testament to the island's unwavering spirit.  In this episode, she delves into the evolution of Taiwan's identity, the soft power China has employed in attempts to sway the people of Taiwan, and the influence of the US policy of ambiguity.  While international observers might expect the war for Taiwan to be won in a military battle, she asserts that it is already being fought in the hearts and minds of its people. Available on LiSTNR  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The potential of a second Trump Presidency has far-reaching implications, particularly in Europe.Cecilia Malmstrom is a Swedish-born politician elected to the European Parliament in 1999, later serving as European commissioner for trade and as European commissioner for home affairs. When Trump was elected, Cecilia promoted free trade worldwide, including an EU/Australia free trade deal when the President imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium.In this episode, Malcolm and Cecilia discuss how immigration and globalisation polarise communities, the threat of right-wing populism to the European Union, and the importance of international cooperation in addressing global challenges like Ukraine. Available on LiSTNRSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How can we build a society where different opinions are met with curiosity and understanding? Dame Louise Richardson is a counter-terrorism expert, author and the President of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and she has some thoughts. In this episode, Dame Louise and Malcolm argue how our environments can bring people back to the centre, reduce division, and inoculate against extremism. Dame Louise believes the public is less divided than politicians would lead you to believe, but the American political system and broader media ecosystem do not encourage moderation.So, what can we learn from unifying institutions like the BBC and NHS? How can universities create space for people to disagree and understand? And is it possible to bring an increasingly partisan United States back together? Available on LiSTNRSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump's MAGA movement has inspired a following of non-college-educated, working-class Republican voters; but it's also had a profound impact on Republican policy.   Ben Ginsberg is a Republican lawyer who wrote Lost, Not Stolen: The Conservative Case that Trump Lost and Biden Won the 2020 Presidential Election. He says the Republican party would be better off arguing for conservative policy solutions rather than pandering to Donald Trump's personalised wishes. Malcolm and Ben discuss the challenges faced by electoral officials in the US and why defending electoral integrity is crucial for maintaining faith in the electoral process and ensuring a peaceful transfer of power.  They also discuss what America would look like under Trump 2.0, including the Heritage Foundation's manifesto of Project 2025 and Trump's vengeance towards his political opponents.Available on LiSTNRSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Could a Trump 2.0 bring more blatant and dangerous violations of the norms and rules of democracy than we've seen before? Larry Diamond, a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, has dedicated his life to the cause of liberal democracy. Malcolm and Larry discuss the success of centrist candidates in Australia, which is improbable in America because of a combination of primary elections, the sore loser rule and first-past-the-post voting. They discuss how, in 2020, Alaska ended partisan primaries and adopted rank-choice voting (preferential voting), allowing more moderate candidate Lisa Murkowski to emerge victorious. Available on LiSTNR See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a world of social media echo chambers, misinformation and partisan media, the lines between truth and lies are blurrier than ever. Jonathan Rauch knows this well - he's the author of The Constitution of Knowledge: A Defense of Truth, which describes the crisis in our society, in which we are no longer divided based on different opinions but on other realities. Malcolm and Jonathan discuss the norms and rules of reality-based politics and journalism and how communities interact to seek the truth. Rauch argues that left-wing-cancel culture and right-wing disinformation are now each other's best friends.  Truth in politics is on the ballot in November. Available on LiSTNRSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the US election looms, Malcolm talks to Eric H. Holder, Jr., about the United States electoral system, how it compares to Australia, and the significant challenges to democracy the US faces today. Eric H. Holder Jr, served as the 82nd Attorney General of the United States of America from 2009 to 2015 in the Obama Administration.  Holder argues that the health of a democracy can be measured by the number of people who can easily engage in the electoral process. America has voluntary voting and a system that allows state legislatures to draw district boundaries through gerrymandering. This practice significantly distorts the political landscape and skews representatives to the left and right, making the primary the main contest for a safe seat. Malcolm and Eric delve into the intricacies of the US election process, discussing the role of the Electoral College and its implications for the presidential race, particularly for Joe Biden.Available on LiSTNRSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Barbara Walter has been part of a CIA task force looking at predictive models for where civil wars might break out around the world. As the task force looked closely at the data, they discovered that the two most predictive factors were well-established in America.    Barbara says the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is a genuine trigger for violence, and if the U.S. does not change its course, it could end up in a second civil war.   Malcolm talks to Barbara about what leads modern democracies toward violence and what can be done to avert a second civil war in the United States.   Available on Listnr See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.