Reading the Signals: Predictions, Polls & the 2026 Midterms

After Donald Trump won the 2024 election, Sarah Longwell did what she's done nearly every week for the past eight years: She sat down with voters. She conducted hundreds of focus groups, listening to thousands of ordinary Americans―Republicans, Democrats, and the politically homeless―with the goal of understanding politics through the eyes of the people who will decide our country’s future.  American voters, and what they want for their country, are at the heart of her new book How to Eat an Elephant. Longwell, the founder of The Bulwark and a popular political communicator, lays out the playbook for building a coalition big enough, bold enough, and tough enough to defeat authoritarian populism for good. Not with a single election. Not by doing another poll or debating the benefits of being more progressive or more moderate, but by building something new: A modern pro-democracy movement that can create its own communications infrastructure―just like the right has done for decades―achieve narrative dominance, elevate more compelling leaders, and talk to voters like adults.  Drawing on her own unlikely political journey from a lesbian Republican operative to the vanguard of the anti-MAGA movement, Longwell makes an argument that is equal parts war manual and pep talk―with her personal and professional story woven throughout. With her trademark bluntness and humor, she explains exactly how we got here and, more important, what we must build next―all while directly quoting the most important but overlooked people in the country: the voters themselves.  Join us as she answers the question: How do you eat an elephant? One voter at a time, she says. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Social Impact Forum examines how promising approaches to social challenges translate into measurable results. This conversation will explore not only the role of belonging and connection in addressing homelessness, but also questions of effectiveness, accountability, duplication of existing services, and whether organizations practice the relational values they promote. Homelessness is one of the most vexing issues in the social impact field. Despite countless attempts and huge budgets to address it, and everyone anxious for results, it persists. Many talk of housing first, what other inputs can achieve results, and how can they be measured? Join moderator Kevin F. Adler, founder of Miracle Messages, for an intimate roundtable exploring a critical but often overlooked dimension of homelessness: the need for connection, relationships and belonging alongside housing and material support. Through lived experience, direct service, policy and systems-change perspectives, panelists Lawrence Lincoln, Khadijah Williams, Christina Garcia, and Miracle Messages founder Kevin F. Adler will discuss what it means to treat relationships as an essential intervention, not simply an outcome. Together, the conversation will examine how human connection can strengthen homelessness prevention and response, humanize social service systems, and shift the conversation from “housing first” to “housing AND belonging.” A Social Impact Member-led Forum program. Forums at the Club are organized and run by volunteer programmers who are members of The Commonwealth Club, and they cover a diverse range of topics. Learn more about our Forums. This program contains EXPLICIT Langauge. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the 2026 midterms approach, voters are contending with concerns around affordability, the AI boom, and climate disruption in their daily lives. AI data centers have become the wild card in energy politics, driving up energy demand and utility bills, and playing a large role in a battleground House primary. A year after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act rolled back key parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, many climate advocates assumed the energy transition was stalled out, but new research suggests otherwise.  How will climate and energy shape the ballot box this year? And what's it like to campaign on those issues in a swing state? William Lawrence, Candidate, US Congress MI-07; Co-founder, Sunrise Movement Leah Stokes, Associate Professor, UC Santa Barbara; Author, “The Carbon Wave” Lily Bermel, Visiting Fellow, Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy. For show notes, related links, and episode transcript, visit our ⁠⁠episode page⁠⁠ at ClimateOne.org Highlights: 00:00:00 Intro 00:03:25 William Lawrence on campaign messaging 00:05:48 William Lawrence on climate and data centers  00:08:05 William Lawrence on giving people more agency  00:13:21 William Lawrence on addressing decarbonization and affordability  00:16:41 Leah Stokes on rewriting narratives about having children in a climate crisis 00:18:55 Leah Stokes on what's driving climate hushing  00:26:36 Leah Stokes on working on climate policy and a high risk pregnancy  00:31:30 Leah Stokes on the trials and joys of working with others  00:36:17 Leah Stokes on what the future could hold after the midterms 00:39:42 Lily Bermel on the methodology of “Glass Half Full”  00:46:01 Lily Bermel on the other factors affecting solar and wind deployment  00:48:55 Lily Bermel on how energy could play into the midterm elections  *** Join Climate One for a town hall event on September 28 at 6 p.m. on navigating AI, climate, and the future of democracy. How do we ensure that AI and data centers serve the public good? How does a democracy function when AI is distorting our sense of shared truths? Tickets available at ⁠⁠climateone.org/events⁠⁠  *** Also: We’ll be having an electric conversation on October 14 at 6 p.m. between PG&E CEO Patti Poppe and California State Senator Scott Wiener about energy affordability, outages, and whether cities like San Francisco are ready to break up with the investor-owned utility model. Tickets available at ⁠⁠climateone.org/events⁠⁠  *** Support Climate One by going ad-free! By subscribing to Climate One on ⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠, you’ll receive exclusive access to all future episodes free of ads, opportunities to connect with fellow Climate One listeners, and access to the Climate One Discord. ⁠⁠Sign up today⁠⁠. *** Ad sales by ⁠⁠Multitude⁠⁠. Contact them for ad inquiries at ⁠⁠multitude.productions/ads⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join us on Thursday, September 10 at the Commonwealth Club for “Reading the Signals: Predictions, Polls & the 2026 Midterms,” featuring renowned nonpartisan election analyst Nathan Gonzales, editor & publisher of Inside Elections and election analyst for CQ Roll Call. At Inside Elections, Nathan he analyzes every competitive race in the country. With more than two decades covering presidential, congressional and gubernatorial races, Nathan is widely recognized for delivering clear, objective, data-driven analysis that cuts through speculation and partisan spin. A frequent political analyst for CNN, NPR, CBS News, and other major national media, he is known for providing clear, objective insights that cut through the noise and identify the trends that truly matter. During this interactive session, Nathan will explore: which races will determine control of Congress—and why; the political, economic and demographic forces shaping voter behavior; and  the scenarios most likely to unfold—and the surprises that could change everything. We’ll conclude with an extended Q&A, giving members the opportunity to ask Nathan their own questions about the midterm elections and what comes next. Whether you follow politics closely or simply want to separate signal from noise, this promises to be one of our most timely and thought-provoking events of the year.   This program is presented in partnership with "YPO Gold." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When families have support, children and youth do better at home, in school and in their communities. Yet many conversations about “student success” focus narrowly on classrooms and test scores, overlooking the pregnancy, early childhood, housing, mental health, special‑needs and basic‑needs supports that shape whether children can show up ready to learn in the first place. This program will explore how family resource centers and other family support services operate in San Francisco, drawing on the experiences of community leaders and parents who know these systems firsthand. Through stories from their work and lives, the panel will highlight how family support helps families navigate complex systems, build stability, and prevent crises before they escalate. The conversation will also consider what we can all do to support cradle‑to‑career supports for families, so that all San Francisco children and youth can thrive.About the Speakers Our moderator will be Kula Koenig, the chief policy officer at Safe & Sound, where she leads policy, advocacy and strategic partnerships to strengthen child abuse prevention through upstream investment, cross-sector collaboration, and systems change that centers families most impacted by inequities. She directly oversees Safe & Sound's role as the backbone organization of the Family Services Alliance, working to make San Francisco a place where all children, youth, and families can thrive. Kula grounds her leadership in the belief that prevention and civic engagement must be inclusive, accessible and healing. She brings more than 15 years of leadership experience at the intersection of public health, early childhood, and racial equity, including senior roles at Public Health Advocates, United Way, and the American Heart Association. She is also the founder and executive director of Social Justice PolitiCorps. Kula holds a B.A. from UCLA and an MBA from The George Washington University. Gloria Tan has been the executive director of the San Francisco nonprofit Gum Moon since 1986. Gum Moon operates a residence hall in Chinatown for survivors of domestic violence and human trafficking. In addition, Gum Moon has 3 family resource centers in the Chinatown, Richmond and Sunset neighborhoods. The FRC's are all funded through the San Francisco Department of Early Childhood’s Family Resource Center Initiative. Originally from Singapore, Gloria came to the United States for college and earned a Business Administration degree from the University of San Francisco. In 2020, the Chinese Culture Center of San Francisco honored her with its Lifetime Achievement Award in Community Building for her decades-long community leadership. In May 2026, the San Francisco Human Rights Commission recognized her contributions on behalf of women, children, immigrant families and underserved communities across the city. She is also an active member of the Family Services Alliance. Vicente Milan is a proud San Franciscan, born and raised. A former U.S. Army Specialist who deployed to Iraq, Vicente later worked in landscaping before stepping into his most important role: primary caregiver to three young boys in a blended family. Vicente and his family have turned to Compass Family Services’ Family Resource Center for parenting support, help with one of his children's special needs, and housing stability services.  He now serves as a parent leader in Compass's “Repeat and Repair” group and brings to this panel the perspective of a father who has seen how family resource centers can strengthen families and improve children’s outcomes. He loves taking his kids to museums and connecting with other parents.  A Social Impact Member-led Forum program. Forums at the Club are organized and run by volunteer programmers who are members of The Commonwealth Club, and they cover a diverse range of topics. Learn more about our Forums. ORGANIZER Virginia Cheung Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Note: This podcast contains explicit language. Is American democracy doomed? Robert Reich doesn’t think so, even though he is more than capable of pointing out how it has fallen short and is being challenged by powerful anti-democratic forces. He says we can reclaim a sense of community and a democratic capitalism based on American ideals we still have the power to salvage. To know where to go next, it helps to know how we got here, and in his new book Coming Up Short: A Memoir of My America, Reich tells us how he got here. Born just 9 months after World War II, Reich came into a united America with a bright future—which went unrealized for so many as, he says, big money took over our democracy. His encounter with school bullies on account of his height—4’11" as an adult—made him determined to spend his life fighting American bullies of every sort. He recounts the death of a friend in the Civil Rights Movement; his political coming of age witnessing the Berkeley free speech movement; working for Bobby Kennedy and Senator Eugene McCarthy; experiencing a country torn apart by the Vietnam War; meeting Hillary Rodham in college, Bill Clinton at Oxford, and Clarence Thomas at Yale Law. He details his friendship with John Kenneth Galbraith during his time teaching at Harvard, and subsequent friendships with Bernie Sanders and Ted Kennedy; and his efforts as labor secretary for Clinton and economic advisor to Barack Obama.  He reflects on all that he has witnessed and asks: What did his generation accomplish? Did they make America better, more inclusive, more tolerant? Did they strengthen democracy? Or did they come up short? Join us as Robert Reich returns to the Commonwealth Club World Affairs stage to hear him discuss the culture, politics, and economic choices that have landed us where we are today—with immensely rich and immensely powerful economic leaders and corporations, demagogues on the rise, and increasing inequality fueling anger and hatred across the country. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Skye Perryman—a Time 100 honoree and CEO of Democracy Forward—offers an urgent, inspiring blueprint for how ordinary people can fight for freedom in extraordinary times. She says the future of our country lies in all of our hands. From protecting voting rights and public schools to finding courage in the face of fear, Skye Perryman makes the case that defending democracy isn’t the job of lawyers or politicians alone—it’s a role for every one of us, seasoned and brand-new activists alike. Drawing on her frontline experience challenging threats to democracy in courtrooms across the nation, Perryman combines gripping personal stories with practical “how-to” guides that empower readers to take action in their own communities. Accessible, hopeful, and deeply practical, this inspiring book shows that the path forward begins not in the halls of power but at our kitchen tables, in our neighborhoods, and through the everyday choices we make to speak up, build community, and protect our future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Note: This podcast contains explicit language. Dating and relationships can be messy. The apps, the expectations, the endless options—it’s a lot. But there’s real science behind how people connect, commit and build a relationship with someone who will “be there when you need them the most.” So how to find such a person, especially in such a world? Fortunately we have a guide! Dr. Justin Garcia is the executive director of the Kinsey Institute, the premier research center on human sexuality and relationships, where he leads a team that has been delving into precisely those questions for almost 80 years. He’ll discuss how people have evolved to need relationships, what we need in a relationship (sometimes not what we think we need!), and how people are negotiating the desires for intimacy and committed relationship in a landscape characterized by casual sex, casual dating and rapidly changing technologies. In addition, Dr. Garcia will discuss what science has found about the realities of modern relationships, including why some last while others end, the shifting patterns of dating and marriage, and maybe even the discovery that one in three Gen Z single adults said they have used AI as a romantic partner. Join us September 8 for this fascinating discussion, and ask your questions about how the world of dating and relationships has changed. This will also be a great opportunity to get out of the house, meet some people in real life, and maybe even have dinner afterward at a nearby restaurant. About the Speaker Dr. Justin Garcia, an evolutionary biologist, is executive director of the renowned Kinsey Institute and chief scientific advisor to dating app Match, where he provides expertise for the annual Singles in America study. He has co-authored more than 100 academic articles and the book Evolution and Human Sexual Behavior. His latest book is The Intimate Animal, which explores the science behind how we date, mate and navigate our love lives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Growing power demands – coupled with increasingly frequent climate-driven disasters – have led even staunch environmentalists like NRDC head Manish Bapna to rethink their past opposition to nuclear power.  Three Mile Island didn't kill anyone or cause major public harm, but it fundamentally changed U.S. nuclear policy for 40 years. Why did an accident with a relatively contained consequence have such a chilling effect – and what’s really different today? With dozens of new, purportedly safer designs at various stages of development and construction around the world, is it time for all of us to give nuclear energy a fresh look? Guests: Manish Bapna, President and CEO, NRDC  Denia Djokić, Assistant Research Scientist, University of Michigan Josh Freed, Senior Vice President for Climate and Energy, Third Way Edwin Lyman, Director of Nuclear Power Safety, Union of Concerned Scientists  Highlights: 00:00 – Introduction  02:30 – Manish Bapna explains shift in posture on nuclear power 07:45 – Why permitting and transmission reforms are necessary 12:00 – Ed Lyman and Josh Freed share concerns about climate change but differ on the role of nuclear energy 16:15 – Ongoing risks of nuclear energy 20:30 – Supply chain concerns 25:00 – Discussion of radioactive waste handling 31:30 – Role of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and its independence under the current administration 40:00 – Where nuclear fits into carbon-free future 43:00 – Denia Djokić on how new advanced designs differ from older reactor designs 49:30 – SMRs are not plug-and-play  53:30 – New nuclear can’t meet the speed demands of AI  55:30 – Additional considerations around nuclear energy 57:30 – Climate One More Thing For show notes, related links, and episode transcript, visit our ⁠episode page⁠ at ClimateOne.org *** Join Climate One for a town hall event on September 28 at 6 p.m. on navigating AI, climate, and the future of democracy. How do we ensure that AI and data centers serve the public good? How does a democracy function when AI is distorting our sense of shared truths? Tickets available at ⁠climateone.org/events⁠  *** Also: We’ll be having an electric conversation on October 14 at 6 p.m. between PG&E CEO Patti Poppe and California State Senator Scott Wiener about energy affordability, outages, and whether cities like San Francisco are ready to break up with the investor owned utility model. Tickets available at ⁠climateone.org/events⁠  *** Support Climate One by going ad-free! By subscribing to Climate One on ⁠Patreon⁠, you’ll receive exclusive access to all future episodes free of ads, opportunities to connect with fellow Climate One listeners, and access to the Climate One Discord. ⁠Sign up today⁠. *** Ad sales by ⁠Multitude⁠. Contact them for ad inquiries at ⁠multitude.productions/ads⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Amidst a backdrop of unprecedented attacks on trans athletes, Schuyler, Chella, and Cal teamed up to take on the Ironman 70.3 relay in Oceanside, California, together on March 28, 2026—placing third in the men’s relay category. Schuyler in the water, Chella on wheels, and Cal hitting the pavement, these trans masculine athletes defy the erasure so commonly perpetuated against them, leaning into movement as essential empowerment, teamwork as vital community, and self-love as fuel.  On June 29, Schuyler, Chella, and Cal invite us into their Ironman journey for a special event at the Commonwealth Club, with a panel discussion of their experience followed by a group run and reception. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices