Iran Conflict Brief: How the Energy Shock Is Reshaping Investment

The month-long Iran conflict has rapidly expanded, drawing in actors across the Middle East and raising concerns about broader regional escalation. As a result, we're seeing impacts on energy markets around the world, including across the Indo-Pacific.  Roughly 80% of the oil and gas flowing through the Gulf is destined for Asia, and disruptions are already being felt in major importing economies like Japan and South Korea, which remain heavily dependent on Middle Eastern supplies. But the consequences go beyond energy. The crisis is also adding a new layer of complexity to the U.S.-China relationship—reshaping how Beijing thinks about risk, security, and its role in an increasingly unstable global system. So how is China interpreting these developments? What do they mean for the Indo-Pacific—both in the near term and over a longer horizon? And how might China's approach to energy security, supply chains, and statecraft position it in a more volatile world? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Kurt Campbell about what the current instability in the Gulf could mean for the Indo-Pacific. They also discuss an essay Kurt co-authored with Rush Doshi in Foreign Affairs, arguing for reorienting US diplomacy with China.    Kurt is the chairman of The Asia Group, which he co-founded in 2013. During the Biden Administration, he was deputy secretary of the United States Department of State. Before assuming his role at the State Department, Kurt served as the inaugural Indo-Pacific coordinator at the National Security Council and deputy assistant to the President at the White House. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

Nearly a month in, the conflict in Iran appears to have hit a critical inflection point. Over the weekend, President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power infrastructure, which Iran credibly warned would trigger reciprocal attacks on GCC energy infrastructure. President Trump then postponed those strikes after what the administration described as productive talks with Iran on ending the conflict—talks that Iran denied are happening.  Meanwhile, a supply shock of historic proportions is unfolding. Some 16% of world oil supply has been disrupted, more than double the volume disrupted during the 1970s oil shock. And a fifth of world LNG supply has been shut in, affecting 50% more volume than the 2022 Russian gas crisis. The world's largest release of strategic oil inventories will buy weeks but not months for most advanced economies.  In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff speaks with Greg Sharenow about how the energy shocks are reshaping the investment landscape. Greg leads the commodity portfolio management group at asset management firm PIMCO. He co-manages PIMCO's Energy and Tactical Credit Opportunities strategies. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2011, he traded energy at Hess Energy Trading, Goldman Sachs, and D.E. Shaw.  Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

As the conflict in ​the Middle East enters its 20th day, events on the ground have shifted into a critical new phase marked by direct strikes on core​ energy infrastructure. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for three weeks, effectively bottling up nearly a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supply, recent escalations have turned the crisis from energy flow disruptions to potentially long-term physical damage.  Following Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field in Iran, retaliatory attacks hit Qatar's Ras Laffan—the world's largest LNG plant—and key energy assets across the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Crude oil and natural gas prices have surged, signaling a shrinking toolkit for policymakers struggling to contain price volatility. In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff ​t​alks with Anne-Sophie Corbeau to analyze the impact of these infrastructure attacks on global LNG supplies and energy security.  They discuss the extent of the damage to Qatari and Iranian production facilities and the intensifying pressure on global markets. They also discuss the possibilities, and reverberations, to a scenario where this leads Europe to a return to Russian gas. Anne-Sophie is a global research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy and a leading authority on the intersection of geopolitics and natural gas. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

The climate policy landscape in the US is in flux. Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency repealed its own power to regulate greenhouse gases. Two weeks later, the Supreme Court said it will hear a case which the city of Boulder, Colorado, brought against the oil companies ExxonMobil and Suncor that could determine the fate of lawsuits brought by cities and states against fossil fuel companies over damages from climate change.  Since its adoption in 2009, EPA's endangerment finding — which says that greenhouse gases harm public health and welfare — had formed the legal foundation for major federal climate regulations. In announcing its rescission, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called it the largest single deregulatory event in US history. But the repeal may be held up in courts for years, and it's just one piece of a complicated regulatory puzzle.  Petitions for review challenging the EPA's rescission of the endangerment finding are due in just over a month. So how might these major policy swings play out in practical terms? What are the near- and long-term stakes at the federal and state levels? What are the reactions from and the preferences of industry? And how might all of this play out in terms of US greenhouse gas emissions? Today on the show, Bill Loveless speaks with Michael Gerrard and Jeff Holmstead about possible legal strategies and outcomes for challenges to both the endangerment finding rescission and the Boulder case. Michael is the founder and faculty director of the Columbia University Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. Before joining Columbia in 2009, he practiced environmental law in New York for three decades. Jeff is a partner and co-chair of the Environmental Strategies Group at Bracewell, LLP, an international law firm. From 2001 to 2005, he served as the assistant administrator for air and radiation in the EPA during the administration of President George W. Bush.  Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

As the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its third week, the complexities of the global energy landscape are deepening by the hour. Shut-ins of Middle Eastern upstream oil production are now approaching 10 million barrels per day, 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas remains shuttered, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to normal maritime traffic. And while a historic 400-million-barrel release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve helped blunt oil prices from rising further over a hundred dollars per barrel, flow rate limitations mean such stockpiles may only meet one fifth of the ongoing daily disruptions. In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff sits down with Richard Nephew to give an update on the latest events in Iran. They provide an analysis of the ongoing military strikes, including the recent US targeting of Kharg Island and Iran's retaliation against the UAE's Fujairah port. Richard is a senior research scholar at the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and the author of The Art of Sanctions. Over the past two decades, he has held a range of senior roles in the US government, including deputy special envoy for Iran, principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the Department of State, and director for Iran at the National Security Council. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

In energy markets, all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 11, 2026, this vital passage is effectively closed to tanker traffic, stranding almost a fifth of world supplies of crude oil, oil products, and liquefied natural gas.  Yesterday, oil prices retreated sharply on a tweet from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, claiming that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through Hormuz. That tweet was retracted, and was followed by reports that US intelligence had detected signs Iran had begun placing mines in the Strait.  To help sort through the quickly-changing events in the Middle East and dig into how they impact energy security, we are launching a new, limited series of the Columbia Energy Exchange podcast: the Iran Conflict Brief. To kick off the series, Daniel Sternoff, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, speaks with Mike Knights about what needs to happen in order for oil and gas flows to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Mike is an expert on Gulf and Middle East security and leads research at Horizon Engage, a strategic advisory firm. For over 20 years he has advised operators and investors in the region of political and security risks. He is also an adjunct fellow at the Washington Institute for NearEast Policy, where he co-founded the Militia Spotlight, focused on Iran-backed proxies. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc

The conflict in the Middle East is evolving with incredible speed, creating a landscape where the complexities of understanding both immediate and long-term outcomes have never been greater. W​e'll still be here every Tuesday for our deep-dive conversations​ on the global energy landscape. But the ​speed of events in Iran and ​across the region demands a different kind of coverage. That's why we're launching a new limited series:​ the Iran Conflict Brief. It's a rapid-response ​p​odcast ​hosted by ​Daniel Sternoff and other experts from Columbia​ University SIPA's Center on Global Energy Policy​. ​In conversations with other leading voices, we're going to ​help answer the biggest questions of the day in ​30 minutes or less. From the latest on​ policy shifts to ​g​lobal energy markets and geopolitical dynamics—we're tracking it all. Look for the first episode of the Iran Conflict Brief right here in your Columbia Energy Exchange feed.

Since the US-Israeli bombing campaign began in Iran, energy markets around the world have been on edge as the conflict threatens immediate and long-term energy supplies. We've seen major disruptions throughout the Gulf region, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and massive price spikes and swings in oil and natural gas.   This is of course exposing serious vulnerabilities across global energy markets and it's putting a spotlight on what's happening in the deeply integrated markets of Russia and China.  Even before the conflict started, Russia's energy sector was struggling under the weight of infrastructure damage inflicted by Ukrainian forces. But now Russia has emerged as an unlikely safety valve for the market, benefiting from the massive supply shortages.  Meanwhile, China finds itself in a precarious balancing act; it is being forced to look at alternative markets for relief and is reportedly reviving discussions around major energy projects, such as the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline with Russia.  So how is Russia responding to the current crisis? And how is it impacting China, which is particularly exposed to disruptions in Gulf energy flows? How might this crisis change Russia's approach to the European energy market? And is the conflict accelerating a deeper fragmentation — moving toward a world of competing energy blocs rather than a single global energy market?  Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Erica Downs, Tatiana Mitrova and Sergey Vakulenko about how the crisis in the Middle East is impacting Russia and China and what each country stands to gain or lose. Tatiana is a global fellow at CGEP. She has deep expertise in Russian and global energy markets, including production and pricing. Erica is a senior research scholar at CGEP, where she focuses on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics.  Sergey is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Prior to this, he led strategy, innovations, and sustainability at the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft.  Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a campaign against Iran targeting military infrastructure and the regime's core leadership. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials died in the attacks, which triggered a leadership crisis and inflamed tensions throughout the Middle East.   In the immediate aftermath, Iran launched extensive barrages of drones and ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, US military bases, ​and other targets in neighboring Gulf states. Energy prices rose sharply. This regional shift carries immediate and enduring consequences for global geopolitics and the stability of international energy flows. ​The outcome of the conflict—and the ultimate fate of the Iranian regime—remains deeply uncertain. Even with these open questions, the trajectory of this escalation will likely redefine the future of Middle Eastern security, global power dynamics, and the world's energy markets. How is the conflict evolving, and how might it end? What are the impacts on Gulf states and what are some of the possible paths forward? And how is this all impacting oil and gas markets across the globe? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with four experts from the Center on Global Energy Policy—Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Richard Nephew, Daniel Sternoff, and Karen Young—to discuss the escalating conflict and its impact on energy and geopolitics. Anne-Sophie is a global research scholar at CGEP, where she focuses on hydrogen and natural gas. She previously worked as a senior analyst at BP and the International Energy Agency. Richard is a senior research scholar at CGEP and formerly served as the US deputy special envoy for Iran under the Biden administration, where he played a key role in negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal.  Daniel is a senior fellow at CGEP and heads its corporate partnership strategy.  Karen is a senior research scholar at CGEP with expertise in the Middle East focusing on geopolitics, the political economy of Gulf states, and energy policy. The Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA is closely following the escalating conflict in Iran and its implications for US national security, Middle East geopolitics, and global energy markets. See all of our coverage here. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

President Trump has aggressively used tariffs as an economic tool, but a US Supreme Court decision on Friday struck down his sweeping tariffs, bringing new uncertainty. The court, in a 6-to-3 decision, ruled that the president had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs on nearly every US trading partner last year. President Trump moved swiftly to work around the court by imposing levies using other trade powers. On Saturday, Trump said that he would raise the new global tariff rate to 15%, using a provision in a law that allows him to impose an across-the-board tariff. This measure can only be enacted for 150 days unless Congress agrees to extend it. Trump also said he would use the act to investigate other countries' unfair trade practices, which could result in additional tariffs.  What does the Supreme Court ruling mean for the president's ability to wield tariffs for geopolitical pressure? How will this impact US trading partners and existing trade deals? And what about the impact on the energy sector, from oil and gas to clean energy products?  Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with two researchers from the Center on Global Energy Policy, Richard Nephew and Trevor Sutton, to unpack the ruling. Richard formerly served as the US deputy special envoy for Iran under the Biden administration, where he played a key role in negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal. From 2013-2015, Richard also served as the Principal Deputy Sanctions Coordinator at the US Department of State. Trevor focuses on the intersection of trade, climate, and industrial policy. He leads the center's program on trade and the clean energy transition. Trevor previously served as research director of the Remaking Trade for a Sustainable Future project. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.