Local elections: Reform seizes Runcorn in teal tsunami

The word ‘unprecedented’ is often overused in politics, but these local elections have proved to be just that. The headline is: sweeping success for Reform.  Nigel Farage's 'teal tsunami' comes at the expense of the main parties – turning the two-party consensus on its head. The recriminations for Labour and the Tories have already begun. On the left, a number of MPs have broken cover and urged the government to shift its position on high-salience issues such as winter fuel. On the right, Kemi Badenoch’s leadership is looking increasingly shaky, with Tory MPs and staff warning that a step change is needed. Where do the main parties go from here? And can anyone stop Nigel? James Heale speaks to Isabel Hardman and The Spectator’s incoming political editor, Tim Shipman. This episode was recorded as part of The Spectator’s local elections live broadcast. You can watch the full coverage here.

Votes are being counted across England, but there is a clear early winner from these local elections: Nigel Farage. His party triumphed in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election this morning, overturning a 14,000-odd majority and winning by just six votes! Elsewhere, Andrea Jenkyns triumphed in Lincolnshire; Reform came second in a number of mayoral races; and their 38 per cent vote share in Runcorn matches the best-ever performance that Ukip achieved in a by-election. So far, the story is one of teal triumph – at the expense of the two main parties. Labour are already pointing to the difficulty incumbents often face at local elections, and will claim victory after narrowly holding out in three mayoral races: North Tyneside, the West of England and Doncaster. The Tories, however, appear to have totally capitulated – but with widespread results for councils across England expected later, that could all change. Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Lucy Dunn. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Voters have gone to the polls today for a historic set of local elections. The polling indicates a rough night for the two main parties and a good showing for Reform, the Lib Dems and the Greens. So be prepared for a lot of election-night spin from both Labour and the Tories. To talk through the various ways in which politicians can claim victory in the face of defeat, James Heale is joined by our editor, Michael Gove – no stranger to the media round himself. They discuss the best candidates to face up to the media from both the Tories and Labour, as well as some of the greatest examples of post-election spin from history. Michael also gives an insight into his own tactics when trying to divert the narrative away from electoral disaster and when encouraging the media to ‘calm down’. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Tony Blair is making waves in Westminster today after his institute published a report on net zero that appears to undermine Ed Miliband and Labour’s green agenda. In his foreword – while not directly critical of the UK government – he encouraged governments around the world to reconsider the cost of net zero. Many have compared Blair’s comments to those made by Kemi Badenoch several weeks ago and questioned the timing – just 48 hours before the local elections. What is Blair up to? Should Labour listen to Tony? Also on the podcast, with the local elections tomorrow, we take one final look at the polling. With Labour expecting big losses, how can the party spin the results? James Heale speaks to the pollster James Johnson and John McTernan, former political secretary to Tony Blair. Produced by Oscar Edmondson. For tickets to our local elections shake-up event with Jacob Rees Mogg and Zia Yusuf, click here. 

Mark Carney has won the Canadian election, leading the Liberal Party to a fourth term. Having only been Prime Minister for 6 weeks, succeeding Justin Trudeau, this is an impressive achievement when you consider that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were over 20 percentage points ahead in the polls earlier this year. Trump’s rhetoric against Canada – engaging in a trade war and calling for the country to become the 51st state – is credited as turning around the fortunes of the Liberals. Are there lessons for conservatives across the anglosphere, including Kemi Badenoch? Patrick Gibbons speaks to James Heale and Michael Martins. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Are we looking at a spring of discontent? It’s the final push ahead of this week’s local elections, and what Keir Starmer wants to talk about is expanding the NHS app – which he says will cut waiting lists and end the days of the health service living in the ‘dark ages’. However, what people are actually talking about is public sector pay. The independent pay review body has recommended pay rises of around 4 per cent for teachers and nurses. Will there be industrial action? Are Labour going to be pushed into another round of public sector pay increases? Meanwhile, after Ben Houchen’s comments this weekend, the murmurs of a Tory/Reform pact refuse to go away. Was his a helpful intervention? Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Isabel Hardman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Legendary pollster Prof Sir John Curtice joins the Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale to look ahead to next week’s local elections. The actual number of seats may be small, as John points out, but the political significance could be much greater. If polling is correct, Reform could win a ‘fresh’ by-election for the first time, the mayoralties could be shared between three or more parties, and we could see a fairly even split in terms of vote share across five parties (Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives, the Green party, and Reform UK).  The 2024 general election saw five GB-wide parties contest most seats for the first time. These set of local elections could solidify this ‘five-party political system'. In fact, says John, ‘Reform have already won these local elections’ by virtue of being able to contest all the seats available. Are we headed for a different kind of politics in Britain? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Despite this being the week that Kemi Badenoch finally showed some steel in PMQs, it’s Robert Jenrick who has been stealing the headlines. That’s for lots of reasons – mainly his comments about a potential Tory Reform pact, which he clarified on Good Morning Britain this morning, saying: ‘Kemi Badenoch and I are on exactly the same page. Kemi has been very clear there won’t be a pact with Reform, and I’ve said time and again that I want to put Reform out of business. I want to send Nigel Farage back to retirement.’ This follows leaked footage which surfaced this week from a student event in late March, where he appeared to suggest that he would back a pact to join forces with Farage. Elsewhere, he had a big win when Yvette Cooper announced that the government will publish migrant crime league tables – a policy he has pushed for. Is he the prince across the water? Or do we need to give Kemi a break? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Henry Hill, deputy editor at Conservative Home. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been in Washington D.C. this week at the IMF’s spring meetings, and will meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tomorrow. Cue the ususal talk of compromising on chlorinated chicken. Not so, reports the Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons, who explains that Reeves may offer a reduction in long-standing tariffs already imposed on American cars. But, it’s been a bad week of economic news for the Chancellor as the IMF downgraded the UK’s growth forecast. We’re also one week away from the local elections – Starmer’s first big test since last year’s general election. The economy isn’t usually the number one issue at local elections but, as More in Common’s Luke Tryl explains, the cost of living crisis is still very much alive in voters’ minds. And, while Reform look set to have a good night, the economy is not their strongest policy area. What should we look out for on the night? Michael and Luke join Lucy Dunn to discuss. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.  

Happy St George’s Day! To celebrate, we thought we would discuss who is the most patriotic political leader — and why some struggle to communicate their love of country. Keir Starmer declared in an interview with the Mirror this morning that Labour is ‘the patriotic party’. This follows a more concerted effort from those within the party to become more comfortable with the flag. But is Keir Starmer actually a patriot? How will the ‘battle of the Union Jack’ play out at the local elections? And does Reform have a point to prove when it comes to patriotism? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Claire Ainsley, former executive director of policy for the Labour party, now at the Progressive Policy Institute. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.