Forward guidance - It's forward garbage!

There is still a lot of chatter about the pandemic leading to stagflation.  In this episode, I argue that apart from a short-term and perhaps temporary rise in the price level, we aren't likely to see any sort of lasting "flation"... and if you are loaded up with debt, that might not be a good outcome.

When Central Banks tell us, it's all fine, we still have forward guidance, it's time to worry - it means they really have nothing left

Some eminent economists think the answer to weak growth and low inflation, is substantially negative interest rates. With the application of a little common sense, and a minor tweak to textbook economics, such arguments can be easily trashed.  Listen to this podcast for some easy to follow explanation of why the boffins have got it wrong, and why a return to modest positive rates may be just what the economy actually needs. 

Some people predicted that this Pandemic would lead to stagflation. This podcast takes their arguments, shreds them, and then laments the fact that they were wrong, as a spot of stagflation wouldn't actually be such a bad outcome after all!

In these difficult times, are negative interest rates are a useful policy option for central banks, or alternatively dangerous nonsense?  Well, clearly it's dangerous nonsense!  Listen here to understand why. 

Why we shouldn't listen to central bank guidance, and why a "strategy change" to allow inflation to "run a little hot" is just hot air

To which the basic answer is, YES!

Episode 3 - Part 1: How some central relationships in economics have changed, and what that means for policymakers

In this episode, I set out why we are NOT going to return to an era of stagflation as we recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, and why in some ways, this is a pity  

In this episode, I'll be considering the sort of thinking underpinning the recent lock-downs across the world. Were they necessary, and what was really the goal?  The alternative title of this episode would be: "How do politicians decide how many of us are going to die?"