The State and Fate of America’s War with Iran

The U.S.-Iran conflict is about to enter its eighth month, and it shows no serious signs of abating. If anything, intensified strikes between the Houthis and Saudi-backed forces in Yemen and continuing Iranian attacks on tankers in the Gulf carry the real threat of escalation. Though sanctions and the U.S. Navy’s blockade is taking a devastating toll on Iran’s economy, there is scant evidence that Iran is interested in ending the conflict without a significant win. Nor does the Trump administration appear to be in a hurry to find a resolution. Indeed, there are credible reports that the U.S. is considering escalation after the midterm elections.  Have we settled into a new normal—interest in neither all-out war nor a diplomatic off-ramp? What might induce one side or both to escalate? And what of internal decision making in Tehran? And how are other Gulf states adjusting to the current reality?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Brookings Institution’s Suzanne Maloney and Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour in a wide-ranging conversation on the U.S.-Iran war—and where we go from here—on Carnegie Connects.

The United States of late seems to resemble a modern-day Gulliver—possessing tremendous strength yet increasingly challenged by powers large and small who oppose its interests and aims. The United States seems to lack a clear and realistic vision about its role in the world and a strategy for how best to advance its interests. Indeed, recent policy missteps have undermined America’s traditional allies and partners and delighted its adversaries. Can America still lead effectively? And what are the core elements of a sound foreign policy and national security strategy?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Jake Sullivan, Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order at the Harvard Kennedy School and former National Security Adviser to President Joe Biden, in a wide-ranging conversation on the challenges the United States confronts in a complicated world, on Carnegie Connects.

Three years after the October 7th attacks, the Middle East is roiled by instability and unresolved conflicts.  Gaza remains divided, impoverished, and sporadically violent with two million Palestinians coping with terrible living conditions. Hamas remains the preeminent political actor in Gaza and Israel continues to increase the territory it controls, while Israeli settler violence in the West Bank surges. Hezbollah is down but not out in Lebanon, and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is adding stress to both the Gulf states and the global oil economy.  Will the looming Israeli elections change anything? Can the Trump administration find a way forward with its Board of Peace 20-point plan? What are the chances of any progress in the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict?Join Aaron David Miller in conversation with CSIS’s Daniel Byman, Rand’s Shira Efron, and Middle East Institute’s Jaser AbuMousa on the impact of October 7th on Israel, U.S.-Israeli relations, and the broader region, on Carnegie Connects.

At the beginning of the U.S.-Iran war, a belief it would be a short conflict, combined with significant pre-war supply, held oil prices down. But reality has now intruded. Two of the planet's most important choke points—the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandeb—are no longer free and unfettered; six months of lost supply is eroding commercial and strategic reserves; and the cost of diesel fuel is up and refining capacity is down.As we enter the seventh month of the conflict, what is the present state of the flow of oil, natural gas, and other hydrocarbons? What do the next few months hold for energy security, global supply and price? Is a deal to restore pre-war oil flow, and the work needed to restore production capacity, even possible?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a wide-ranging conversation about the geopolitics and economics of the Iran war and its impact on global oil supply, on Carnegie Connects.

September 11, 2001, was the second deadliest day on American soil in the country’s history, exceeded only by a single day during the 1862 Battle of Antietam. Events that day produced a rare moment of national unity, only to give way to controversy and heightened divisions over the American response. It would lead to the two longest wars in U.S. history, a global war on terror and a rethinking of America’s counter-terrorism policy.Twenty-five years later, what are the lessons—learned and unlearned—from that fateful day?  And what have been the long-lasting consequences and implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Brookings Institution's Philip Gordon, the McCain Institute’s Nick Rasmussen, and The New Yorker's Susan B. Glasser on the impact of September 11th, on the next Carnegie Connects. 

Since the state of Israel was established in 1948, the U.S.-Israeli relationship has had its ups and downs. Even with episodic tensions under American presidents of both parties, U.S. support for Israel remained strong. In the last few years, however, the foundational elements of the relationship—shared values, common interests, and strong bipartisan domestic support—have come under unprecedented strain and scrutiny, especially as Congressional and public attitudes have grown more critical.  What’s driving the decline and to what extent is this shift affecting the actual substance of the U.S.-Israeli relationship? How has the war with Iran and Israeli policies in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank impacted strategic cooperation, intelligence sharing, and political alignment between the two nations? Have we reached an inflection point where America’s special relationship with Israel is changing irreversibly? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Princeton University’s Daniel Kurtzer, the Middle East Institute’s Yael Lempert, and the University of Maryland’s Shibley Telhami, in a wide-ranging discussion of the future of the U.S.-Israeli relationship, on Carnegie Connects.  Carnegie Connects is recorded as a live broadcast and audio quality may be impacted.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is well into its fifth year. In recent weeks, momentum has swung in Ukraine’s favor amid a remarkable series of strikes on Russia’s energy system, military logistics nodes, and defense industrial base.  Nevertheless, Ukraine remains dangerously vulnerable to Russian ballistic missile attacks with little chance of improvement in the face of the global shortage of missile interceptors.  Moreover, neither side appears closer to inflicting the level of damage that might decisively turn the tide on the battlefield or open prospects for a diplomatic conclusion to the conflict. What is the reality on the battlefield? Is significant pressure mounting on Vladimir Putin that might compel him to look for a diplomatic off ramp? Will recent political turbulence in Kyiv impact Ukraine's ability continue an open-ended war of attrition?  And how has the role of external actors evolved, especially Europe, NATO and the United States? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Carnegie’s own Andrew S. Weiss and Dara Massicot, who recently returned from a visit to the front-line in Ukraine, in a wide-ranging conversation on the headlines and trend lines of the Russia-Ukraine war, on Carnegie Connects.

Israel's image and credibility in the United States have fallen to an unprecedented low. A recent Pew poll revealed that 60 percent of American adults have an unfavorable view of Israel, especially among younger respondents. Criticism of Israel among Democrats in Congress has increased substantially, and while Republicans still broadly view Israel favorably, those who hold negative views are growing. Both President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have also voiced public criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that have gone well beyond their predecessors. What's driving the decline? How have the policies of Israel's right-wing government, especially the war in Gaza, rising antisemitism, and a growing number of younger candidates challenging traditional policies in both parties, changed U.S. perception of Israel and fractured once solid bipartisan support? What role is the Israel issue playing in recent primaries and the run-up to the midterms and what does it mean for the future of the U.S.- Israeli relationship? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages S.E. Cupp and Ron Brownstein, two leading American political analysts, in conversation on Israel and domestic U.S. politics, on Carnegie Connects.

In their 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU), the United States and Iran have agreed to “negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent." However, challenges abound at the negotiating table, including the fragile ceasefire on the Israeli-Lebanese border, the ever-problematic Strait of Hormuz, and the issue of nuclear assets and international oversight. In the absence of even a modicum of trust in the wake of this bloody war, the likelihood of quickly reaching a successful deal seems uncertain. Are there relevant lessons from previous negotiations with Iran? What are the major do’s and don’ts when working with Tehran and organizing a U.S. delegation and strategy? Join Aaron David Miller in conversation with three former American negotiators: Robert Malley and Alan Eyre, members of the negotiating team for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015; and Michael Singh, former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council during President George W. Bush’s administration (2005-2008), to discuss the best path forward for the U.S. and Iran, on Carnegie Connects.

“The America that they believed in was under attack, not from without, but from within,” wrote Admiral William McRaven for the New York Times in 2019, reflecting on what he sensed from his military colleagues during the first Trump administration.  In that op-ed, McRaven stressed the importance of American values in the face of the erosion of institutions and norms that underpin the strength of United States abroad.   What do the challenges to those values look like today? How does the increasingly partisan and polarized environment, and an unprecedented aggrandizement of presidential power, impact a military designed to be above politics?  Can the U.S. military be expected to help defend democracy or is this the purview of Congress, courts and civil society? Join Aaron David Miller as engages Admiral McRaven in a wide-ranging discussion of the state and fate of the American republic at home and abroad, on Carnegie Connects.