Markets Weekly podcast (15 June 2026): Mid-Year Outlook 2026 special

In this week's podcast, Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue to reflect on the bond markets in 2025 and provide insights on what will be the driving forces in 2026. They discuss if central banks are done with interest rate cuts and if the bond markets are too complacent about the inflation outlook. Additionally, they explore what large-scale, AI-related capital expenditure means for credit markets.

Against a backdrop of elevated economic and geopolitical uncertainty, investors have faced significant challenges throughout the first half of the year. In this week’s special podcast, Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, is joined by Dorothée Deck, Head of Cross Asset Strategy, and Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, as they discuss our Mid-Year Outlook 2026 report and explore the key topics shaping global markets.

Following transformative AI-related bond issuance, what has been the impact of this fundraising on the structure and dynamics of credit markets? In this podcast, Aleksandar Devic, Fixed Income Strategist, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to discuss the latest developments in credit markets. Away from AI, where is the relative value in more traditional sectors? Are there any opportunities at the long end of the investment grade curve? And where is the most value in high yield?

As valuations in semi-conductor chip manufacturers soar, are concerns of a bubble warranted or is this the start of a new paradigm? In this podcast, Rob Smith, AI and Data Science Strategist, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to explore the latest developments in the AI sector. Will future productivity gains continue to support the AI trade? What are the most important developments in agentic AI? And what comes next?

As private credit becomes a more significant part of the investment landscape, how important is diversification and manager selection? In this special podcast, Kellie Hata, Head of European Private Markets, and Mike Scott, Senior Investment Due Diligence Analyst, both from Albourne Partners, join host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to explore how a disciplined and well-informed approach can exploit attractive opportunities in private credit despite increasing performance dispersion and rising defaults.

As ongoing political uncertainty in the UK puts pressure on sterling, what is the longer-term outlook for the currency? Bhaskar Gupta, Head of FX Distribution, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to discuss the outlook for the major currencies amid expected rate hikes from leading central banks. They also discuss the US dollar’s safe-haven status, inflationary headwinds and yen volatility amid bouts of intervention by the Bank of Japan.

Following a historic weekend of election results, what have we learned from an increasingly fragmented electorate? Sonia Fernandes, UK Government Relations and Policy, and Luke Mayberry, Investment Strategist, join host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to consider the unprecedented gains by Reform UK amid a shift towards anti-union parties. They also discuss the likelihood of a Labour leadership challenge in the short term, the market reaction to the results and the outlook for the UK economy.

What do last week’s central bank meetings imply for interest rate expectations in 2026? Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to consider the latest policy announcements. As the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank leave rates on hold, concerns mount over an oil-induced inflationary shock. They also discuss investment opportunities in fixed income, the latest earnings news and what’s next in the Middle East conflict.

A year on from when President Donald Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs, what has been the impact on the global economy? Lukas Gehrig, Head of Quantitative Macro and Thematic Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to consider the effects the initiative has had on global trade routes. They also discuss how the tariffs have affected the US economy and explore the likely inflationary impact from this year's energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

As negotiations in the Middle East continue, is a peace deal in reach? Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, considers the latest developments in the region. Meanwhile, US banks reported first-quarter results that generally beat expectations – driven by strong equity trading – and painted an encouraging outlook backed by the strength of the US consumer and a resilient economy.