Analysis: Trump’s Novel Middle East Diplomacy

This week on a special edition of Babel, Will Todman speaks with Jon Alterman, the creator of Babel and the show’s host since it began in 2019. They discuss Jon’s reflections on 22 years directing the CSIS Middle East Program, his analysis of how the Middle East policy ecosystem has changed during that time, and his advice to those entering the field. Jon and Will cap off the conversation by discussing the lessons Jon will take to his new CSIS role as the Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy. Transcript: "⁠Babel Special: Jon Alterman's Next Chapter⁠⁠," CSIS, May 22, 2025. Jon's latest work:⁠ "Scenarios That Could Define 2035⁠," CSIS, May 14, 2025. Jon's career advice: ⁠"Advice for Job Seekers in Middle East Policy⁠," CSIS.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dr. Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. Mohanad's latest paper for Carnegie investigates the rise of a new form of drug smuggling in Lebanon. Together, they discuss Hezbollah’s involvement in these drug networks, as well as the opportunities to bolster Lebanese sovereignty and state institutions as a result of the group’s weakened standing. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Mona Yacoubian, the CSIS Middle East Program's new director, and Asher Grant-Sasson to discuss the challenges the shifting drug trade poses for Lebanese stability. Transcript: "Mohanad Hage Ali: Hezbollah and the Captagon Trade⁠⁠," CSIS, May 15, 2025. Mohanad's latest work: "Double Dealers: Lebanon and the Risks of Captagon Trafficking," Carnegie, March 19, 2025.

On Tuesday, May 6, President Trump declared that the United States would immediately halt its bombing of Houthi targets, bringing an end to months of intensified U.S. strikes across Yemen. The president linked the policy reversal to what he described as the Iran-backed Houthis’ capitulation to U.S. demands, stating that the group had agreed to cease its assaults on U.S. and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The president’s decision comes as U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are expected to advance this weekend and follows Israeli air raids on Sanaa’s airport earlier this week—retaliation for a Houthi missile attack on Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the core drivers behind this policy shift and the implications it might bear on key regional files, such as the prospect for a renegotiated U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dina Esfandiary, the Middle East Geoeconomics Lead at Bloomberg. Previously, Dr. Esfandiary served as a senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group and was a fellow at The Century Foundation. Her research focuses on security in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s foreign relations. Together, they discuss why the United States and Iran are negotiating again, how Tehran’s position has changed since 2015, and the different strategies both countries are likely to pursue at the negotiating table. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Will Todman to discuss how regional and international actors are responding to the ongoing nuclear talks. Transcript: "⁠Dina Esfandiary: Will Iran Make a Deal with Trump?⁠," CSIS, May 1, 2025. Dr. Esfandiary's latest work: available via Bloomberg Terminal.

The United States is currently engaged in several high-stakes negotiations across the Middle East and around the world. President Trump has departed from traditional diplomatic norms, opting instead for unconventional negotiating strategies to address the crisis in Gaza, the war in Ukraine, Iran’s nuclear program, Venezuela, and trade. His approach has emphasized compressed timelines and the appointment of negotiators from outside the federal government’s usual ranks. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the promise and hazards posed by this shift in diplomatic strategy, especially in connection with the Middle East.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dr. Craig Larkin, director of the Center for the Study of Divided Societies at King’s College London. Dr. Larkin is also a research lead on Memory and Conflict for XCEPT, a research consortium studying cross-border conflict. There, he focuses on the relationship between communal memory and violence. Together, Jon and Dr. Larkin unpack different approaches taken to reconstruction and reconciliation after violence in the Middle East. Then, in his farewell Babel appearance, Martin Pimentel takes Jon's spot by continuing the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Will Todman to discuss pitfalls the international community should avoid when supporting post-conflict recovery. Transcript: "Craig Larkin: The Politics of Memory, From Mosul to Beirut to Gaza," CSIS, April 17, 2025. Dr. Larkin's latest work: "Lebanon’s October Revolution (al-thawra 17 tishrīn) and the Civil War: Memory, Protests and Mobilisation," Brill, December 3, 2024.

While seated beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 7, President Trump announced that the United States will imminently initiate talks with Iran over its nuclear program. The announcement comes amid a rise in U.S. military activity in the Persian Gulf and a string of threats directed at Iran by President Trump, citing Tehran's nuclear program and support for regional armed groups. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about why these talks are happening now—and what the Trump administration must do to ensure their success.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based political analyst and Haaretz columnist. Scheindlin also serves as a fellow at Century International and has advised on eight national Israeli election campaigns over a twenty-year period. Together, they discuss the sources of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s staying power, as well as his ongoing efforts to remodel key state institutions. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Will Todman to evaluate how the changes underway in Israel might affect bilateral relations with the United States. Transcript: "Dahlia Scheindlin: Israel’s Political Turmoil," CSIS, April 3, 2025. Scheindlin's latest article: "The Escape Artist: How Netanyahu Lies and Why People Still Believe Him," Haaretz, April 1, 2025.

On March 15, the United States launched a wave of attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen. The Trump administration had pledged to step up efforts initiated by President Biden to combat Houthi assaults on commercial shipping and U.S. regional assets. As reports swirl of new U.S. strikes, the U.S. government has also been clearer in blaming Iran for Houthi actions, and it has promised to hold Tehran accountable. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the current state of play and the dilemmas confronting U.S. policymakers in dealing with the Houthis.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Nicolas Pelham, the Middle East correspondent for The Economist. Nicolas has worked in the Middle East and North Africa for more than 30 years and has reported from every state in the region. Together, they discuss his latest article, “The Great Pretender: How Ahmed al-Sharaa Won Syria,” an in-depth profile of the Syrian leader based in part on a mid-February interview. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Natasha Hall to discuss al-Sharaa's opportunities and challenges, and what they mean for Syria’s future. Transcript: "Nicolas Pelham: Ahmed al-Sharaa and Syria’s Future," CSIS, March 20, 2025. Nicolas' article: "The Great Pretender: How Ahmed al-Sharaa Won Syria," The Economist, March 5, 2025.