Strait of Hormuz Closure and the Oil Price Roller Coaster

This week, our guest is the Honourable Tim Hodgson, Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources. The conversation was recorded at CERAWeek in Houston on March 24, 2026. Here are some of the questions Jackie asked Minister Hodgson: How is Canadian energy being perceived at CERAWeek, particularly in the context of the war in the Middle East? Do you expect that Canada will meet the Prime Minister’s targets of 50 million tonnes per annum of LNG exports by 2030 and potentially double that by 2040? What steps is Canada taking to attract the hundreds of billions in capital required to advance and build major projects, particularly amid strong competition from the United States? With the first deadline for the Alberta–Ottawa Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) just one week away, what progress has been made, and what are the prospects for advancing a 1 MMB/d oil pipeline to access Asian markets? Is Canada fiscally competitive, especially given its carbon pricing and policy framework compared to the United States? And finally, what opportunities lie ahead for Canada in electricity generation growth? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Over the past decade, the Canadian economy has been driven largely by consumption and government spending, while business investment has remained relatively flat. To accelerate Canada’s economic growth, an objective emphasized by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada will need stronger business investment, particularly investments with the “one-two punch” of growing the economy through increased capital spending in the early years and greater exports in the longer term. To explore the historical drivers of GDP and what expanded export capacity could mean for Canada’s economy, Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, joins Jackie and Peter on the podcast. The discussion ends with answering the question: What would an additional 1.5 million barrels per day of oil pipeline export capacity, including a West Coast pipeline to Asia and other expansion projects, mean for Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth and jobs outlook over the next decade? Studio.Energy and ATB have collaborated on a series of reports examining Canada’s GDP and the potential economic impact of increased oil export capacity. The series also includes background articles explaining how GDP is calculated and historical trends. These articles are available on both the Studio.Energy and ATB websites (see links below). Content referenced in this podcast:Peter Tertzakian’s op-ed in The Hub.ca: The next act in the oil crisis: Time to get ready for rationing and hoarding? (March 13, 2026)  Seeking Shelter: Iran and the Next Structural Shift in Global Oil Markets (March 9, 2026) Studio.Energy reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines:  The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) Canada’s GDP Dilemma: The Illusion of Growth (March 5, 2026) Other background reports on GDP: Canada’s Economy Under Siege (January 30, 2026) and What is GDP, Really? (February 5, 2026) ATB reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines: The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) See all GDP reports at: Special Reports | ATB Financial Background report on productivity and the importance of the oil and gas sector, “Productive diversification: Maintaining Alberta’s productivity edge”  (August 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Re

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter review developments in the Iran war, which entered its tenth day at the time of recording on the morning of March 9, 2026. The U.S. reports striking thousands of targets in Iran during the first week of the conflict and damaging or destroying more than 40 Iranian naval vessels. In response, Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have launched missiles and drones across more than ten countries in the region. Energy infrastructure across the Middle East has also been targeted, including facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran. Some regional producers have shut in oil production due to export disruptions, full storage tanks, and, in some cases, damaged facilities. Tankers continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and LNG trade normally pass. The U.S. has offered naval escorts and a $20 billion tanker reinsurance program to restore shipping, but tankers are not moving yet. WTI briefly surged to about US$118 per barrel on March 9, before easing, amid reports that the G7 was considering releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and comments from the US President suggesting that the conflict could be nearing an end. Jackie and Peter also explore potential winners from the crisis, including renewable energy and other alternatives, electric vehicles (EVs), Russia, and possibly Canada, particularly if Canada can expand market access and increase oil and gas production. Content referenced in this podcast:Financial Times: G7 discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves (March 9, 2026) Polymarket: US X Iran cease-fire by….  CBC: Nervous nations calling Canada's energy minister after Iran strikes (March 3, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader along with other senior leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In his initial statements following the attack, President Trump signaled that regime change was a potential objective. Iran responded aggressively, targeting a range of military, civilian, and energy infrastructure across nine countries at the time of recording. Energy facilities have been hit, including a refinery in Saudi Arabia and LNG export facilities in Qatar. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows and a key corridor for Qatar’s LNG exports, is effectively blocked. Shipping companies and insurers are unwilling to risk moving through the narrow chokepoint amid ongoing missile and drone attacks in the region. Several tankers have also reportedly been struck. As a result, oil and natural gas prices have risen. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, even higher prices are expected. This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie are joined by Josef Schachter, President and Founder of Schachter Energy Research Services Inc. They discuss the recent events, oil prices, available spare production capacity, and inventories, and what these developments could mean for the Canadian oil and gas industry. Content referenced on this podcast:Learn more about the Schachter Energy Report and the Eye on Energy Report Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Prime Minister Mark Carney has said Canada needs to “build at speeds not seen in generations.” More than ten major projects have now been referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO). Assuming that all of the projects move forward in the next few years, will Canada have enough skilled workers to deliver them? To explore this question, our guest this week is Sean Strickland, Executive Director of Canada’s Building Trades Unions. Canada’s Building Trades Unions is the voice of the country’s construction workers, representing more than 600,000 skilled tradespeople across Canada. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Sean: What is the current situation- do we have a shortage or an excess of trade workers? How might that change if all the projects being advanced by the Major Projects Office (MPO) move into construction over the next few years? How mobile is the labour force, and are there policy changes that could improve labour mobility? Are temporary foreign workers still available if Canadian labour becomes stretched thin? What are the demographics of the current workforce? What is it like to work on industrial projects in remote regions, including both the sacrifices and the rewards? How can workforce planning be done when the number of projects that will ultimately proceed remains highly uncertain?Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, we’re sharing highlights from a conversation at the 8th Annual Haskayne School of Business PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series held on February 11, 2026. Jackie Forrest moderated a sold-out session featuring award-winning author Edward Fishman, whose recent book Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, explores the rise of U.S. geoeconomic strategy. Mr. Fishman is a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy and an Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. Joining the discussion was Robert (RJ) Johnston, Director of Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy. The conversation explores a wide range of issues, including the United States’ use of tariffs as a tool of economic warfare, the potential for expanded investment and trade between Canada and China, how such a shift might be viewed by the U.S., and key lessons from American intervention in Venezuela. The panel also discusses the prospects for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, whether a weakening U.S. dollar could diminish America’s ability to deploy economic statecraft, and, finally, whether China’s growing self-sufficiency could ultimately reduce the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions and leverage. The episode concludes with Peter and Jackie sharing their reflections on the discussion, offering their own perspectives, and examining the issues through a Canadian lens. Content referenced in this podcast:Peter Tertzakian’s article on why Canada must act with urgency to diversify its export markets, “Oil, Mercantilism, and the Return of Gunboat Economics” (January 12, 2025) Edward Fishman’s article on how Europe should handle Donald Trump’s threats, “Want to stop Trump bullying your country? Retaliate” (February 8, 2026) Peter Tertzakian’s article, “The Cost of Being a Market Hostage,” (September 8, 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, our guest is Brandon Moffatt, Chief Development Officer at StormFisher Hydrogen. StormFisher Hydrogen develops projects that repurpose energy, water, and power, with a focus on green hydrogen and e-fuels across the North American market. The company is currently advancing a low-carbon methanol project in Varennes, Quebec. The conversation begins with an overview of green hydrogen–derived products, including e-methane, e-methanol, and green ammonia. Brandon explains why e-methanol is emerging as a leading end-use for green-hydrogen-derived fuels, particularly for marine shipping and aviation. The discussion then turns to Canada’s competitive advantages in producing e-fuels, including access to low-carbon grid electricity in Quebec, Manitoba, and British Columbia, as well as the Canadian Investment Tax Credits (ITCs). With the United States rolling back support for green hydrogen in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) last summer, Brandon notes that Canada currently holds a policy advantage in North America. However, global competition remains strong, particularly from India, China, and the Middle East, where cost structures are advantaged. For Canada to remain globally competitive in green hydrogen-derived products, Brandon outlines several changes he believes are needed to Canada’s existing ITC framework. These include:Allowing access to the full green hydrogen ITC when grid power is more than 90% non-emitting Extending eligibility to downstream equipment, including e-methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, consistent with how ammonia is treated  Allowing the use of carbon dioxide in fuel production to qualify for the carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) ITCThe episode concludes with a deeper dive into the Varennes project, including the potential for local job creation and the anticipated timing for a final investment decision and first production. Content referenced in this podcast:S&P Canadian Electric Car Insights to Q3 2025 (Dec 2025) StormFisher Hydrogen’s website Learn more about StormFisher’s low-carbon methanol project in Varennes, Quebec Note, the ARC Energy Funds are an investor in StormFisher Hydrogen. Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie review some of the latest developments in clean energy and the broader energy transition — including a discussion of terminology, with Peter advocating for a return to the older term “alternative energy”. They begin by discussing Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest “Energy Transition Investment Trends (2026)”, which finds that global investment in the energy transition reached a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, up 8 % from 2024. Next, they review a set of charts from a 200-slide deck released by Nat Bullard, an annual presentation on the state of decarbonization. Nat describes himself as a “climate-focused keynote speaker, board-level strategist, consultant, and advisor.”  His side deck provides a comprehensive overview of the latest data across a wide range of energy types. Finally, the hosts discuss a couple of new papers by Peter Tertzakian: one titled “Venezuela’s Fiscal Competitiveness” and another called “Oil, Mercantilism, and the Return of Gunboat Economics”. In this segment, they debate the impact of Venezuela’s high government take, which has contributed to declining production, and consider recent reforms to the country’s oil and gas sector aimed at attracting foreign investment.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter are joined by Marcus Rocque, Vice President of Research at the ARC Energy Research Institute. This episode focuses on Canadian federal carbon policy, including a discussion of the carbon pricing policy for large industrial emitters and the recently finalized methane regulations, which target a 75% reduction by 2030 (relative to 2012). The discussion centers on how these policies affect competitiveness, investment, and infrastructure development in Canada's natural gas and oil sector. They start by discussing Prime Minister Carney’s recent speech at Davos. Next, they review recent developments in Canadian carbon policy, including the Canada–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed on November 27, 2025, in which both governments agreed to work toward an oil pipeline to reach Asian markets. The MOU also outlines a plan to develop a revised industrial carbon pricing policy and methane regulations by April 1, 2026. Not long after the MOU was signed, in December 2025, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), a federal agency, issued final methane regulations that conflict with the MOU, with one requiring an end date of 2030 and the other 2035.  Further to this, ECCC released a discussion paper in December titled “Driving Effective Carbon Markets in Canada”, asking for feedback by January 30, 2026, on potential changes to Canada’s carbon markets, which are also being modified as part of the Canada-Alberta MOU by April 1. Jackie, Peter, and Marcus discuss what “carbon competitiveness” means and how Canadians should think about it in a changing global energy landscape. They also share concerns about the carbon market discussion paper and new methane regulations. Content referenced on this podcast:Discussion Paper: Driving Effective Carbon Markets in Canada. Send your feedback to ECCC before January 30, 2026, by emailing: [email protected] Final Methane Regulations: Canada Gazette, Part II, Volume 159, Number 27 Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, we welcome back Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy.  Founded in 2019, the firm provides research that helps decision-makers identify energy opportunities. Based in Estonia, nine time zones away, Rob is an exceptionally productive energy expert whose work spans a wide range of topics. We begin by walking through Rob’s Top Ten Themes for Energy in 2026, including the continued steady growth in global oil demand, a waning focus on net zero, EVs, and decarbonization. With that lens, we also discuss Canada’s Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Rob then shares his bullish outlook for LNG demand growth, with positive implications for Canada’s aspiration to grow LNG exports. Rob also argues that there is a growing investment case for grid-enhancing technologies to increase the utilization of existing infrastructure and meet rising electricity loads. We also touch on the outlook for copper demand driven by electrification, robotics, and AI data centers, as well as Rob’s expectations for electricity load growth, which are more conservative than some other forecasts. Finally, Rob and Jackie revisit Jackie’s “doomsday” scenario: what it would actually cost to back up her home during an extended power outage, comparing options such as using stored power from an electric vehicle, a home battery, and a natural gas generator. Content referenced on this podcast:Sign up for Rob’s daily note at his website, https://thundersaidenergy.com/ Ten Themes for Energy in 2026 from Thunder Said Energy (January 1, 2026) Rob’s video: US load growth: unpopular opinions (September 3, 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify