Opinion Polls

Action to address climate change is essential. But the effects of such action are often imbalanced: the benefits are diffuse and long-term, while the losses are often frontloaded and concentrated amongst certain communities. That imposes two kinds of challenge:- the idea that some people, such as workers in fossil fuel industries, might face higher costs than the rest of us seems unfair.- voters are rarely willing to accept short-term harms in return for future benefits that seem distant and uncertain.A solution to these problems may lie in compensating those who face heightened costs, for example by retraining workers in affected industries. But would these schemes overcome the political hurdles to implementing the needed long-term policies? In a world of deep distrust in political leaders, can voters be persuaded that so-called ‘just transition’ policies really will be fair?We are joined this week by Dr Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy here in the UCL Department of Political Science and Dr Diane Bolet, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Political Behaviour in the Department of Government, University of Essex. Mentioned in this episode:How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a ‘Just Transition Agreement’ on Spanish Election Results.   American Political Science Review.No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The Norm We Need. Science. View the article without a paywall. UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

In the run up to the UK General Election we have a secial episode on opinion polls. Opinion polling is a staple of modern elections, captivating political enthusiasts with fluctuating numbers but also sparking controversy. Polls are sometimes criticized for inaccuracies, notably in the Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election. Polling methods, including sampling and voter prediction, are hotly debated. The emergence of MRP polls, which accurately estimated results in the 2017 UK election, has added to the intrigue, despite producing widely varying predictions for the outcome of the current UK election. So what should we make of the polls? And how can we best interpret all the numbers to understand what’s really going on?Our guest is Prof Ben Lauderdale. Ben is Professor of Political Science here at UCL, a former Senior Data Science Advisor to the polling firm YouGov, the original brain behind the development of MRP methods and general polling guru. UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

Neo-colonialism concerns the actions and effects of certain remnant features and agents of the colonial era. One way in which neocolonialism can be seen is through unequal patterns of cultural goods between the Global North and Global South. Debates surrounding cultural globalization have traditionally divided proponents of free trade and cultural preservation. In this episode we are talking to two Political Scientists who's alternative account is grounded in a global application of the ideal of social equality. Citizens of privileged societies ought to regard and relate to citizens of disadvantaged societies as social equals, and patterns of cultural exchange play an important role in promoting these relationships. Historically, colonized peoples were often regarded as inferior based on perceived failures to produce cultural achievements, to the extent that unequal global cultural production and exchange persist, and the colonial pattern remains. We are delighted to be joined by Prof Alan Patten and Dr Shuk Ying Chan, who argue that the duty to relate to foreigners as equals implies that Global North countries should stop pressing for cultural trade concessions and instead favor the import of cultural goods from the Global South. Mentioned in this episode:Shuk Ying Chan and Alan Patten. (2023) What’s Wrong with Neocolonialism: The Case of Unequal Trade in Cultural Goods. American Political Science Review. UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

One of the most basic questions regarding any state is 'can it act?' Does it have the capacity, that is, to uphold the rule of law and to deliver security and public services? For a state has the capacity to act it needs information on its citizens. You can’t tax someone or assess their eligibility for services if you don’t know who or where they are.But states may be unable to require its citizens to provide information – it may have to rely on their wanting to do so. And that has potentially profound implications for how equitable state activities are – and therefore ultimately how the state develops and builds its legitimacy. We are joined this week by Dr Jeremy Bowles, Lecturer in Comparative Politics, expert in the political economy of development and the interaction of state-building processes with distributive politics. Mentioned in this episode;Jeremy Bowles (2024) Identifying the Rich: Registration, Taxation, and Access to the State in Tanzania. American Political Science Review UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

We're celebrating another inaugural lecture today and welcome the fantastic Professor Lucy Barnes. Lucy has made a career out of breaking new ground in the field of Political Economy. Economic policy clearly matters to us all. The view that the state of the economy is the primary driver of election results is often taken as a given. But we can only understand the implications of that if we understand how people actually view the economy. Do people look to their own good or to the good of society as a whole? Do they look forwards or backwards? What do they think ‘good’ means in this context in the first place?Watch Lucy's inaugural lecture on Youtube: https://youtu.be/hfK8Qd85-xMMentioned in this episode:Barnes, L. and Hicks, T. (2022) ‘Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity’, British Journal of Political Science, 52(3), pp. 1296–1314.Barnes, L. (2021) ‘Taxing the Rich: Public Preferences and Public Understanding’, Journal of European Public Policy, 29(5), pp. 787–804. UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

Ukraine's ongoing struggle against the Russian invasion incurs an annual cost of approximately $50 billion, with projections indicating that post-war reconstruction will require at least half a trillion dollars. Western nations, primarily the EU and the US, have assumed much of this financial burden. In February, the EU pledged 50 billion euros, while the US Congress recently approved a support package totaling $61 billion.However, the future commitment of Western governments and their citizens to continue financing Ukraine remains uncertain, potentially hinging on the outcome of the upcoming American presidential election in November.Some propose an alternative solution to ease this financial strain: seizing Russia's frozen assets, valued at around $300 billion in Western countries. These assets, withheld since the conflict began, could be permanently confiscated and the proceeds allocated towards Ukraine's ongoing war efforts or post-war reconstruction.Dr. Veronika Fikfak, an Associate Professor in International Law at UCL's Department of Political Science and an expert on the European Court of Human Rights, joins us to discuss the legal ins and outs of seizing Russian funds.Mentioned in this episode:Dr Fikfak's talk delivered to the legal adivsors of the Council of EuropeThe Council of EuropeFurther reading, from both sides of the argument:Confiscating sanctioned Russian state assets should be the last resortConfiscation of immobilized Russian state assets is moral and vital UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

We’re back from our Easter break, and since we were last on the airwaves a book has been published by a certain former UK Prime Minister arguing – among other things – that elected politicians are unduly constrained by unelected technocrats, and that ministers should be freed from such fetters in order to enable them better to represent the will of the people. Not least, the book argues for scrapping the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility, which currently offers advice on the likely implications of different fiscal policy decisions.Well Liz Truss is – for better or worse – not our guest on today’s podcast. But the person who is has thought a great deal about how – and by whom – fiscal rules should be set. That person is Stefano Merlo, Associate Lecturer in the Politics of Economic Policy here in the UCL Department of Political Science. Stefano is also currently finishing off a PhD in Political Economy and Political Theory at John Stuart Mill College in the Free University of Amsterdam. Mentioned in this episode:Stefano Merlo. 'A Republican Assessment of Independent Fiscal Institutions.' Journal of PoliticsStefano Merlo. 'A republican fiscal constitution for the EMU.' Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

The NHS is currently in crisis: record numbers of people are on waiting lists, there are serious staff shortages, buildings and equipment are outdated, and research indicates that patient satisfaction is at rock bottom. There does not seem to be much optimism about the UK’s current health system and the NHS’s public support may be waning. Beyond clinical shortcomings, we face a string of public health challenges in the UK, including persistent health inequalities and a slowing or even halted rate of increase in life expectancy. Is there a way out of the current crisis for the NHS – and a way forwards for public health more broadly? How much should the state do to promote our health? And can a look  at the values that ought to underpin public health strategies tell us how to do better? This week we are joined by Albert Weale, Emeritus Professor of Political Theory and Public Policy here in UCL Department of Political Science, and James Wilson, Professor of Philosophy in UCL Department of Philosophy. He is also co-director of the UCL Health Humanities Centre.Mentioned in this episode:Peter Littlejohns, David J. Hunter, Albert Weale, Jacqueline Johnson, Toslima Khatun. 2023 'Making Health Public: A Manifesto for a New Social Contract.'James Wilson. 2021 'Philosophy for Public Health and Public Policy: Beyond the Neglectful State.'James Wilson. 2023  ‘What makes a health system good? From cost-effectiveness analysis to ethical improvement in health systems.’ Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy. UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

Armed conflict is all too common around the world today. One of the consequences of conflict is that civilians are harmed. Military forces – if they respect basic moral and legal standards – seek to avoid those harms so far as they can. But sometimes they will fail in that. So how should armed forces and governments respond when they cause unintended harm to civilians?Well that is a question that the United States and its allies are thinking about very carefully at the moment.One of the researchers whose work is shaping that process joins us today. She is Dr Kaleigh Heard. Kaleigh has advised multiple governments and NGOs around the world. She is also Lecturer in Human Rights here in the UCL Department of Political Science. Mentioned in this episode:Kaleigh Heard. The Price of a Life: The Confluence of Strategy and Legitimacy in Civilian Harm Compensation.  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

Protest is a fundamental part of democracy. From thousands attending pro-Palestine marches in London, to farmers driving their tractors into Paris, Berlin, and Cardiff, to Just Stop Oil spraying UCL’s famous portico orange – protests are rarely out of the spotlight.But what do protests actually achieve? Do they affect political debate and policy outcomes?A new study sheds light on that, focusing on the impact of climate protests here in the UK on what MPs talk about – both in parliament itself and online.One of the co-authors of that article is Tom Fleming, Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics, who joins us for this episode.Mentioned in this episode:Barrie, C., Fleming, T. G., and Rowan, S. S. (2023) ‘Does Protest Influence Political Speech? Evidence from UK Climate Protest, 2017-2019’, British Journal of Political Science. UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.