The people betting on catastrophic world events

Prediction markets allow you to put money on everything from the US attacking Iran to Jesus returning. Saahil Desai explains their dizzying rise. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

A small number of Palestinians from Gaza have started crossing into Egypt for medical treatment after Israel allowed a limited reopening of the Rafah border crossing. It had been largely closed since Israeli troops seized it in May 2024, cutting off a critical lifeline for those in Gaza. About 20,000 Palestinians needing medical care hope to leave Gaza using the crossing, but only a handful have been allowed through so far. The reopening of Rafah is seen as a key step in the US-brokered ceasefire agreement as it moves into its second phase. Lucy Hough speaks to chief Middle East correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison – watch on YouTube. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

A succession of political leaders have been trooping to Beijing in recent months. Is it an indication of a new world order? Tania Branigan explains. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

Donald Trump claims that the release of millions more files related to Jeffrey Epstein ‘absolve’ him of wrongdoing, even though his name appears hundreds of times. The latest documents also indicate high-profile figures, including the former prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Labour peer Peter Mandelson, continued friendships with the disgraced financier after his child sex abuse convictions. So what have we learned from the newly released files and what happens next? Lucy Hough speaks to columnist and host of Politics Weekly America Jonathan Freedland – watch on YouTube. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

The Pakistani writer on enduring an abusive relationship in the public eye, and how she broke free. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

With Donald Trump tearing up the world order, governments across Europe are having to confront the fact that most of the technology they rely on comes from US companies. French officials have taken a step this week to reduce their dependence on US digital infrastructure, announcing they have stopped using Zoom, the US-owned video meeting software, in favour of a French-made program. But how viable is this? And what are the risks? The Guardian’s Michael Safi speaks to the tech journalist Chris Stokel-Walker – watch on YouTube. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

How does it feel when ICE agents swarm your city? Minneapolis residents on why they are rising up. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

Donald Trump says ‘time is running out’ for Iran as the threat of war appears to loom closer. A huge US armada is being moved towards Iran and is seen as the starkest indication yet that Trump intends to strike. The US president had called on the Iranian regime to negotiate a deal on the future of its nuclear programme, only weeks after he promised Iranian protesters ‘help was on the way’ then backtracked days later. Nosheen Iqbal talks to the Guardian’s deputy head of international news, Devika Bhat, about what Trump could do next – watch on YouTube. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

Miqdaad Versi, Shaista Aziz, Aamna Mohdin and Nosheen Iqbal on the rise of the far right and growing Islamophobia in the UK. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

Keir Starmer has landed in China to meet Xi Jinping, in the first trip to the country by a British prime minister in eight years. But Starmer is facing myriad issues, including pressure to try to secure the release of Jimmy Lai, the jailed former media tycoon and one of Hong Kong’s most significant pro-democracy voices, as well as raising other human rights concerns. On top of that he has the difficult task of trying to boost trade with China without triggering the fury of Donald Trump. Nosheen Iqbal speaks to the Guardian’s political editor, Pippa Crerar, who joins from Beijing – watch on YouTube. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus