EP 72: Global economic outlook and investment strategies for 2025 - Vanguard

When over 50% of a portfolio’s offshore assets are USD-denominated, currency risk isn’t just a theoretical issue—it can be a real drag on performance. In episode 75 of the Portfolio Construction Podcast Series, Paul O’Connor (Netwealth Head of Investment Management & Research) speaks with Tom Averill, Managing Director of Rochford Capital, about how investors can more effectively manage USD exposure—especially with the AUD near the low end of its long-term range. They discuss why traditional hedging tools often fall short, how the Rochford Leveraged Long AUD Fund provides targeted FX exposure through OTC derivatives, and why this can be a more accurate, scalable, and tax-efficient solution than switching between hedged and unhedged funds. Also covered: the macroeconomic outlook for the Australian dollar, implications of the US credit downgrade, the growing structural role of China, and how geopolitical shifts are reshaping global currency dynamics.   To learn more about today’s guest and Netwealth, visit: 👉 Super Accelerator (for super): https://www.netwealth.com.au/web/personal/super-and-smsf/super-accelerator-plus/?utm_source=pc 👉 Wealth Accelerator (for investment accounts): https://www.netwealth.com.au/web/personal/investment-solutions/wealth-accelerator/?utm_source=pc 👉 Compare Funds & Models tool to view investments: https://www.netwealth.com.au/nw/Fund/CompareFundsAndModels?utm_source=pc   Timestamps:  00:00 – Intro & context: AUD volatility, USD exposure, and the case for smarter hedging 01:45 – Meet Tom Averill: Background in FX, macro strategy, and launching Rochford Capital 05:10 – Institutional hedging explained: Why hedging behaviour differs across asset classes 08:00 – Is the AUD undervalued?: Long-term range, fair value metrics, and capital flows 11:40 – US downgrade & structural debt risk: What rising deficits mean for USD confidence 15:30 – Global dynamics: China’s slowdown, US retrenchment, and implications for AUD 18:25 – The Rochford fund mechanics: 3x leveraged AUD exposure via OTC derivatives—not futures 23:05 – Precision and efficiency: Why the fund helps avoid CGT events and hedging inefficiencies 26:50 – Cash management & execution: Managing liquidity, carry, and cost through institutional relationships 30:40 – Portfolio applications: How direct investors and advisers are using the fund for targeted hedging 35:10 – AUD/USD outlook: Interest rate differentials and the case for longer-term AUD strength 38:15 – Key takeaways: Where the fund fits in portfolio construction and risk management   Disclaimer: Netwealth Superannuation Services Pty Ltd issues Netwealth Super Accelerator. Netwealth Investments Limited issues the Netwealth Wealth Accelerator Multi-Asset Portfolio Service. Information contained within this podcast is of general nature only. Consider whether the products are appropriate for you and seek advice where required. To help you decide, read the PDS or IDPS Guide and TMD available at https://www.netwealth.com.au/

In this episode of the Portfolio Construction podcast, Paul O’Connor, Head of Investment at Netwealth, chats with Dmitry Solomakhin from Fidelity International. Dmitry unpacks the thinking behind Fidelity’s Global Long Short Fund, which uses a contrarian value approach to invest in "unloved companies" they believe are mispriced. The discussion explores Dmitry’s disciplined approach to shorting stocks, grounded in rigorous analysis to ensure its aligned with the fund’s contrarian philosophy. Paul and Dmitry also examine the inherent risks of shorting, such as volatility and potential losses, and how these are mitigated through thoughtful portfolio construction and diversification. Dmitry shares his perspective on the evolving AI ecosystem, its practical applications, the potential risks associated with the current AI craze, and what it means for his stock selections.

In this episode of the Portfolio Construction podcast, Paul O’Connor, Head of Investment at Netwealth, chats with Nathan Lim, Chief Investment Officer at Lonsec Investment Solutions. Nathan breaks down Lonsec's take on alternatives, explaining the difference between defensive and growth assets based on their volatility, while emphasising that volatility alone doesn't fully capture the strategy's nature. They dive into the opportunities and risks of alternative strategies like private equity and private credit, highlighting the importance of picking the right managers and understanding illiquidity. They also discuss how the post-COVID economic landscape, with rising inflation and interest rates, impacts alternative investments and what to consider when building a portfolio.

In this episode of the Portfolio Construction podcast, Paul O’Connor, Head of Investment at Netwealth, chats with Matt Cho, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Vanguard Australia. Matt shares insights on Vanguard's recently released economic outlook for 2025, the performance of multi-asset products in 2024, and potential returns for various asset classes. They review the strong 2024 returns from international and Australian equities, and the positive performance of fixed-income markets. The discussion covers the global economic outlook, including perspectives on Europe, Asia, and Australian economies, as well as the US and the impact of Trump's re-election. They discuss the role of private credit in diversified portfolios, and Vanguard's long-term forecasts for equities and fixed income.

In this episode of the Netwealth Portfolio Construction podcast, Paul O'Connor, Head of Investments at Netwealth, is joined by Jolon Knight, an investment specialist from Hyperion Asset Management. They dive into the global equities market, exploring the opportunities Hyperion sees for investors. They discuss investing in "new world" businesses as opposed to "old world" businesses and how Hyperion identifies and invests in these companies for the long-term, acting as business owners rather than share traders. Knight also shares insights on the potential impact of the recent US presidential election, and their outlook on inflation and the market environment moving into 2025.

In this episode of the Portfolio Construction podcast, Paul O'Connor, Head of Investment at Netwealth, is joined by Tim Van Klaveren, Head of Australian Fixed Income at UBS Asset Management. They discuss macroeconomic factors impacting fixed-income markets, including the global shift towards more accommodative monetary policy following a period of high inflation, the complexities of managing fixed-income portfolios in this environment, and the potential implications for various bond market segments. Van Klaveren offers his outlook on interest rate movements, and they discuss APRA's regulatory changes regarding tier one securities and what these mean for a diversified portfolio, as well as the impact of global trends, including the US election and China's stimulus measures, on fixed income investments.

The Indian economy is the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Driven by internal demand and a burgeoning middle class, India may offer an opportunity for investors. In this episode of the Portfolio Construction podcast, Paul O’Connor, Head of Investment at Netwealth, chats with Mugunthan Siva, Managing Director and Co-Founder of India Avenue Investment Management. Mugunthan shares his perspective on why he believes India is poised for continued growth, the factors driving corporate earnings, and the expanding investment opportunities in specific sectors like pharmaceuticals and real estate. They also explore the impact of government policies, digitisation, and infrastructure development on the Indian economy and the potential risks of investing in India, such as rising oil prices and industrial challenges.

The private equity landscape is evolving, with companies staying private longer due to available growth capital, expanding access and investment opportunities in private markets. In the latest episode of the Portfolio Construction podcast, Paul O’Connor, Head of Investment at Netwealth, chats with Craig MacDonald, Managing Director of HarbourVest Partners Ireland. Craig shares his perspective on why he believes private equity consistently outperforms public markets, the growing interest from Australian investors, and the innovative structures of modern private equity funds. They also explore emerging companies, liquidity and risk management strategies, and the transformative impact of AI on private markets, highlighting growth opportunities in sectors like healthcare and industrials.

Considering an allocation to small cap stocks? Many Australian investors do, seeking the potential for higher returns that small caps can offer. But with greater opportunity comes increased volatility—so how do you navigate this space effectively? In this episode of the Netwealth Portfolio Construction Podcast, Paul O'Connor is joined by Richard Ivers and Mike Younger from Prime Value Asset Management to explore the strategic benefits of small cap investing. They share their insights on the current market, highlighting specific stocks that offer strong, long-term growth potential. They discuss the benefits of diversifying with New Zealand stocks and how careful portfolio construction can manage volatility and downside risk in this dynamic space.

In this episode, Paul O’Connor, Head of Strategy and Development at Netwealth, sits down with Chris Bedingfield, Principal & Portfolio Manager at Quay Global Investors. They delve into the complexities and opportunities within global real estate markets. Chris shares his expertise on why investing in real estate below replacement cost provides downside protection and potential upside. They also explore the resilience of the US economy, the impact of interest rates on global property markets, and emerging investment themes such as self-storage, senior housing, and residential real estate. Tune in to understand the strategic differences between global and local REITs and how global real estate can enhance your diversified portfolio.