Trump’s Huge Day 1, Predictions for 2025

Jay and Justin discuss the Democratic strategy as an opposition party. Will Democrats do better to oppose everything, or to attempt bipartisanship to blunt the edges of Trump's policy? They wrap up with a discussion of the ethics and optics of Biden's proposed commutation of some (or all) federal death sentences. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X  Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike talks about the Zero To Travel Podcast. Whether you are a seasoned traveler or more of the armchair variety, we hope you’ll enjoy checking out this excellent show.

Jay and Justin cover the freshly minted debt ceiling deal and the implications for the strategies for both parties headed into the new year. They then discuss Trump's lawsuits and threatened lawsuits against ABC, the Des Moines Register, and Lynne Cheney, and whether these are undemocratic chilling of the fourth estate or a means of holding them to some ethical standards. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X  Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Jay open the preview of this midweek supporters’ episode by considering everything Donald Trump has promised to do on his first day in office. It’s a huge list, and they get into the probable, possible, and unconstitutional. Then they look back at their predictions for 2024 and make new and improved predictions for what they expect in 2025. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Jay open with a discussion of the murder of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. While they agree that Luigi Mangione’s actions were absolutely wrong, Mike makes the case for a more nuanced understanding of both Mangione and the people in charge at health insurance companies like United Healthcare. This leads to a broader discussion of American healthcare. Mike argues that the system is fundamentally flawed, whereas Jay believes that things aren’t nearly as bad as Mike makes them out to be. Then it’s a look at one of Donald Trump’s many Day 1 promises: ending birthright citizenship. While that will be highly unlikely without a constitutional amendment, they consider what the incoming Trump administration could do to disincentivize immigrants from attempting to come to the US to give birth. Mike doesn’t even see this as a problem, but even if it is, he argues that there are far more important immigration issues to tackle. Jay makes the point that Democrats are often too focused on ‘root causes’ and that even minor disincentives to illegal immigration might be worth enacting. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Ken discuss the implications of the 14th Amendment's state action doctrine. The 14th Amendment cannot be enforced against private individuals or relationships. But what happens when state action and private action intermingle? As a special, this normally supporter-exclusive show is available to everyone free of charge! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Ken start with a look at the Hunter Biden pardon. Trey forcefully argues that it didn’t have to be a terrible move for President Biden. Still, because it involves lying and taking unnecessary shots at the Justice Department, it is wrong and bad for the Democratic Party. Ken argues that the pardon was not only necessary but justified. In Ken’s view, the primary problem is that the pardon did not cover enough people and, maybe due to mental decline, was not worded well.  Next is a discussion of Trump’s nominees with a special focus on Hegseth and Kennedy. They agree Hegseth is a bad nominee but have differing takes on what may happen next. Ken believes one possibility is that it is a flytrap: that is one bad nomination to take eyes off of other nominees.  They close with a look at the oral arguments for United States v. Skrmetti. Ken drills deep into the legal issues and the potential future for the case to return not under the 14th Amendment, but under a parental rights framework. Trey suggests that we live in a post-liberal world primarily concerned about good ends for people and not minimal liberal visions of justice.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X  Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This weekend's episode will be delayed due to technical issues. Trey and Ken recorded on Friday evening, and while they made it through just fine, Trey's microphone didn't. They'll be re-recording on Sunday and we'll have the weekend episode up for you by Sunday evening. Our apologies for the delay. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and May open the preview of this midweek supporters’ episode with a discussion of the gender gap in American politics. Mike thinks that part of the reason for it is that Democratic candidates do a poor job of projecting strength and aren’t offering much to young males. May believes the issue is more policy than vibes, with Mike wondering if he’s overreacting to a loss for his party that can plausibly be explained by bad fundamentals. When May makes an early exit, Mike soldiers on by himself, addressing listener questions on why Biden chose Harris as his VP and if MAGA can survive Trump. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and May open with a look at where the many legal cases against Donald Trump stand as Inauguration Day approaches. They agree that there won’t be any further action on them until Trump is out of office again, with May believing there’s much more of a chance of future Democratic administrations reopening them than Mike does. Next is a discussion of the latest tariffs Donald Trump said he’d enact on day one: 25% on both Mexico and Canada as well as an additional 10% on China. Mike believes that Trump made these promises as the opening salvo in a negotiation and won’t end up following through. May argues that Trump has a real attachment to tariffs, and that he’s likely to stick with them even if they cause markets to drop and inflation to rise. They close with Walmart’s recently announced DEI rollback, which is part of a larger corporate trend. Mike believes that thoughtfully administered awareness training can be valuable, but that it too easily becomes counterproductive hectoring. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices