Ben Carlson: Exploring Risk and Reward

Today on the podcast, we’re delighted to welcome back Jeremy Grantham to discuss his book, The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World, which he co-authored with Edward Chancellor. Jeremy is the long-term investment strategist at his namesake firm, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Company, or GMO, which he co-founded in 1977. He serves on GMO’s asset-allocation committee and board of directors. Prior to GMO, Jeremy was co-founder of Batterymarch Financial Management and, before that, was an economist at Royal Dutch Shell. He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield and his MBA from Harvard University. Jeremy is a member of the Academy of Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the UK, and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy. In 1997, he and his family started the Grantham Foundation for the protection of the environment, which supports research and action to address climate change. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Writing Permabear With Edward Chancellor 00:06:44 Value Investing and Identifying Market Bubbles 00:15:07 Current Market Outlook and Valuation Risks 00:20:28 Value Discipline, SpaceX’s IPO, and Past Market Bubbles 00:27:26 Speculative Trading, Indexing, and Zero‑Sum Markets 00:34:24 Market Inefficiencies, Small-Cap Stocks, and the Greater Fool Theory 00:43:27 Artificial Intelligence Hype, Attractive Assets, and Market Pessimism 00:47:02 Climate Risks, Resource Constraints, and Shrinking Populations More From Morningstar 3 Warnings for Investors From the Ultimate Contrarian Ben Carlson: Exploring Risk and Reward What Today’s Index ETFs Get Right, and Wrong, for Investors If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We’re taping this podcast live at the Morningstar Investment Conference, where we’re delighted to be joined by Fidelity’s Will Danoff. Will runs a number of Fidelity equity strategies, the best known of which is Fidelity Contrafund FCNTX, a mutual fund he’s been managing since September 1990. Morningstar named Will its Domestic-Stock Manager of the Year in 2007. Prior to becoming a portfolio manager, Will served as a retail analyst at Fidelity and assistant portfolio manager at Fidelity Magellan FMAGX. He graduated from Harvard University and earned his MBA at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Will, welcome back to The Long View. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:56 Investing Origins and Early Influences 00:00:53 Retail Analysis and Unit Economics 00:10:29 Reg FD Changes and Adapting Research Processes 00:15:00 Identifying Durable Competitive Advantages 00:19:24 SpaceX and Buying Private Companies 00:22:40 Investing Mistakes and Avoiding Unprofitable Companies More From Morningstar 2026 Morningstar Investment Conference: From SpaceX to Safeguarding Retirement Here’s Fidelity Contrafund’s Will Danoff’s Secret Sauce As Legendary Manager Will Danoff Leaves Fidelity, Should Investors Follow Him Out the Door? If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today’s guests are Morningstar’s Brian Moriarty and Jack Shannon. Brian is a principal, fixed-income strategies, for Morningstar. Before assuming his current role in 2015, Brian was a client solutions consultant for Morningstar Office, a practice and portfolio management system for independent financial advisors. Before joining Morningstar in 2013, he was a research assistant for DePaul University’s religious studies department. Brian holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from Michigan State University and a bachelor’s degree in Islamic world studies from DePaul University. Jack Shannon is a principal, equity strategies, for Morningstar. He focuses on actively managed equity strategies and is the lead analyst for MFS and Artisan Partners, among other firms. Before joining Morningstar in 2020, Jack worked in commercial banking and was a consultant providing subject-matter expertise on complex financial litigation. Jack holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and history from James Madison University. He also holds a master’s of business administration in investments and corporate finance from the University of Notre Dame’s Mendoza College of Business. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Introduction 00:02:06 What are Private Markets, and What Investment Opportunities Do They Provide? 00:03:13 Do Semiliquid Funds Provide Easier Access to Private Markets? 00:05:57 Applying Morningstar Processes to Evaluate Private Markets 00:09:50 Managing Liquidity in Private Market Investments 00:18:48 Valuation and Transparency: Putting Private Assets Under the Microscope 00:24:07 Payment in Kind as a Valuation Concern 00:28:02 Public vs. Private Markets: Understanding Risk, Language, and Infrastructure Differences 00:39:28 Building Methodology to Explain Private Asset Fees and Incentive Structures 00:44:22 What Morningstar Medalist Ratings Signal for Semiliquid Funds More From Morningstar Morningstar’s Guide to Public/Private Investing Private Equity Funds Step Into the Spotlight Private Credit Pricing: Are Prosecutors Opening Up Pandora’s Box? If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Kathleen Rehl. Kathleen is an author, educator, speaker, and certified financial planner dedicated to empowering widows financially and guiding the professionals who support them. She operated her own planning firm for 18 years before shifting her focus to writing, teaching, and research. After her husband died, she transformed her personal grief into a mission, helping others navigate widowhood, legacy planning, and purposeful aging. She is the author of Moving Forward on Your Own: A Financial Guidebook for Widows. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Introduction 00:02:17 Learning Widowhood From the Inside 00:04:13 Decision-Making Without a Spouse 00:05:16 Early Irreversible Choices For Widows 00:08:39 Stress-Testing Life Without a Spouse 00:16:03 Why Widows Leave Advisors 00:18:53 Slowing Down Decisions to Prevent Emotional and Financial Harm 00:25:55 Continuing Care Retirement Communities 00:30:38 “Refirement” vs. Retirement and Building a Legacy More From Morningstar Harry Margolis: How to Confront Aging Challenges Head-On How to Tackle Estate Planning Basics in 7 Steps 3 Tricky Decisions for Every Retirement Plan If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Don Phillips. Don is a managing director for Morningstar. He joined the company in 1986 as its first mutual fund analyst and soon became editor of the flagship print publication Morningstar Mutual Funds, establishing the editorial voice for which the company is best known. He helped to develop the Morningstar Style Box, the Morningstar Rating, and other distinctive proprietary Morningstar innovations that have become industry standards. Don has served in a variety of leadership roles at Morningstar, most recently head of global research, before paring back his schedule to take on a part-time nonmanagement role. He holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas and a master’s degree from the University of Chicago. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Introduction 00:01:57 Viewing Investing From 100,000 Feet Up 00:08:20 The Role of the Manager, From Salesmanship to Stewardship 00:11:18 What Indexing and AI Make Easier—and What They Risk 00:17:50 Private Credit and Private Equity Risks for Retail Investors 00:28:01 Finding the Unmet Needs in Asset Management 00:35:47 Fixed-Income Funds as the Industry’s Achilles’ Heel 00:43:42 The Value of a Liberal Arts Education and the Power of Storytelling More From Morningstar Morningstar’s Why Don Phillips: We’re All in the Behavior Modification Business Private Equity Funds Step Into the Spotlight If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Adam Grossman. Adam’s the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. He’s also a regular contributor to Humble Dollar, the website founded by late financial writer Jonathan Clements. Before founding Mayport, Adam worked as an investment advisor or analyst at several firms, including Middleton & Company, Ballentine Partners, and MFS Investment Management. He also founded About Face Software, a social networking software firm. Adam received his undergraduate degree from Williams College and his MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management, and he’s also a CFA charterholder. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Introduction 00:01:16 Writing for Humble Dollar and Jonathan Clements 00:05:15 How Flat‑Fee Advice Beats AUM Pricing 00:10:29 Helping Investors Stay Calm in Market Stress 00:17:30 Simple Stock/Bond Portfolios Still Work 00:22:58 How to Protect Your Portfolio Before Retirement 00:27:20 Social Security Timing: Math Versus Emotions 00:34:19 How AI Is Changing Financial Advice More From The Long View Bill Bengen: ‘Inflation Is the Greatest Enemy of Retirees’ Jim O’Shaughnessy: Investing Lessons From a Lifelong Learner Harry Margolis: How to Confront Aging Challenges Head-On If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Listen Now: Listen and subscribe to Morningstar’s The Long View from your mobile device: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Our guest on the podcast today is William Bengen. Bill has been a prolific researcher of retirement planning matters over his career, and he pioneered the exploration of safe withdrawal rates with his groundbreaking 1994 research that gave birth to what’s now called the 4% rule. His new book, A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More was published in August 2025. Bill is the former owner of Bengen Financial Services, an independent registered investment advisor that he launched in 1989 after his family sold the soda bottling business that he had helped manage. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in aeronautics and astronautics from MIT. Bill retired from his financial planning practice in 2013 but continues to conduct research on retirement planning and withdrawal rates. Episode Highlights Why the 4% Rule Needed a Rethink Inflation as the Biggest Retirement Risk Different Approaches to Finding Your Withdrawal Rate Factoring in Longevity, Taxes, and Legacy Managing Your Asset Allocations, and Outsourcing the Rebalancing Process The 4% Rule Is Not for Everyone More From Morningstar Bill Bengen: Revisiting Safe Withdrawal Rates How to Find Your Perfect Withdrawal Rate Strategy How Much Should You Allocate to Safer Assets? If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Listen Now: Listen and subscribe to Morningstar’s The Long View from your mobile device: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Today on the podcast, we welcome back Ben Carlson, who’s the author of a new book called Risk and Reward. Ben is the director of institutional asset management for Ritholtz Wealth Management. In addition, Ben’s a prolific creator of content. His blog is called A Wealth of Common Sense. He also co-hosts the podcast Animal Spirits with Michael Batnick. Ben is the author of four books about investing and money, and he’s a CFA charterholder. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Understanding Market History Is About Preparation, Not Prediction 00:02:00 Lessons From Japan’s Asset Bubble and Mean Reversion 00:06:54 The Different Ways Investors Respond to Crashes 00:08:36 The Automatic Investing Revolution Has Changed Behavior 00:15:22 Why Patience Is Harder to Come By in an On‑Demand World 00:19:32 The Importance of Education in Private Asset Investing 00:21:35 Inflation Psychology and How to Respond 00:28:15 Two Different Kinds of Bear Markets 00:35:40 Using Alpha to Deliver Better Aftertax Outcomes for Clients More From Ben Carlson Everything You Need To Know About Saving For Retirement Don’t Fall For It: A Short History of Financial Scams Invest Your Way to Financial Freedom Risk and Reward More From Morningstar Ben Carlson: How Not to Get Scammed What We’ve Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market Crashes The 60/40 Portfolio: A 150-Year Markets Stress Test If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today’s guest on The Long View is Amit Wadhwaney, portfolio manager and co-founder at Moerus Capital Management. Amit has over 30 years of experience researching and analyzing investment opportunities in developed, emerging, and frontier markets worldwide. Prior to co-founding Moerus, Amit was a portfolio manager and partner at Third Avenue Management, where he worked alongside his Moerus co-founding partners. Amit founded the international business at Third Avenue and was the founding manager of the Third Avenue Global Value Fund, the Third Avenue Emerging Markets Fund, and the Third Avenue International Value Fund. Earlier in his career, Amit worked at MJ Whitman LLC, a New York-based broker/dealer. Prior to joining M.J. Whitman, Amit was a paper and forest products analyst at Bunting Warburg, a Canadian brokerage firm. He began his career at Domtar, a Canadian forest products company. Amit holds an MBA in finance from the University of Chicago. He also holds a BA with honors and an MA in economics from Concordia. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Introduction 00:02:05 Investing Versus the Business of Investing 00:09:48 Why Macroeconomic Forecasting Often Fails Investors 00:10:36 Survivability as the Core of Risk Management 00:16:58 Why “Trouble” Creates Opportunity for Value Investors 00:32:04 Exploring Value-Accretive Corporate Activity 00:47:23 Is Today’s Market Setting Up a Value Comeback? More From Morningstar How the Iran War Is Shaping Markets 3 Well-Regarded Large-Value Funds for Investors Seeking Balanced Portfolios The Value Stock Comeback Is Messy. Here’s Why Investors Shouldn’t Turn Away If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Claudia Sahm. Claudia is chief economist at New Century Advisors, the founder of Sahm Consulting, and a regular contributor at Bloomberg Opinion. She has policy and research expertise in macroeconomics, consumer spending, and household finance. She created the Sahm rule, an automatic trigger for stimulus payments in recessions. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve, where she oversaw the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. Before that, she worked for 10 years on the staff’s macroeconomic forecast. She was a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan and a bachelor’s degree in economics, political science, and German from Denison University. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Lessons From the Fed During the Global Financial Crisis 00:04:56 Making Sense of Fed-Speak 00:09:29 The “Whiplash Economy” and Understanding Risk 00:14:21 Rising Gas Prices, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Consumer Sentiment 00:18:03 Interest Rates, AI, and Fed Leadership Changes 00:29:48 Undoing the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs 00:33:34 The Sahm Rule and Recession Risk Today 00:43:56 Costs of Underfunding US Economic Data 00:49:57 “Economics Is a Disgrace” More From Morningstar Risk, Not Volatility, Is the Real Enemy for Investors Michael Gates: Why More Advisors Are Migrating to Model Portfolios Q2 Market Outlook: Why a Stock Barbell Strategy Is Ideal for Today’s Market If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at [email protected]. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.