E354: Why Most VCs Misunderstand Peter Thiel’s Power Law

What if the biggest edge in managing $390 billion isn’t picking assets—but controlling risk and liquidity when markets break? In this episode, I sit down with Scott Chan, Chief Investment Officer of CalSTRS, to discuss how one of the largest institutional investors in the world is positioning for a period of massive structural change. Scott breaks down how AI, deglobalization, and the energy transition are driving a multi-decade investment cycle, why traditional diversification is breaking down, and how liquidity and dynamic allocation become critical in volatile markets. We also explore structural alpha, co-investing at scale, and how governance and partnerships enable CalSTRS to generate returns without taking incremental market risk.

What if the next source of alpha in private equity isn’t funds—but individual deals? In this episode, I sit down with Rohan Parikh, Vice President at Houlihan Lokey, to discuss the rapid rise of co-investments and why they are becoming a core part of institutional portfolios. Rohan explains how extended fundraising cycles, larger deal sizes, and slower distributions have created a “perfect storm” for deal-by-deal capital, why LPs are increasingly treating co-investments as a standalone asset class, and how independent sponsors are reshaping the market. We also explore underwriting frameworks, alignment, and how relationships, not just returns, drive long-term success in this segment of private markets.

What if the best investments aren’t found in chaos—but in having the discipline to act when others can’t? In this episode, I sit down with Darren Fisk, Founder of Forum Investment Group, to discuss how he scaled from early syndication deals to a fully integrated multifamily investment platform managing billions. Darren breaks down how he leaned in during the 2008 financial crisis to acquire 9,000 units, why focusing on distressed capital structures rather than distressed assets created asymmetric opportunities, and how flexibility across the capital stack allows investors to generate returns in any market.

What if venture capital isn’t about finding unicorns—but about consistently making good investments? In this episode, I sit down with Eric Scott, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Overlook Capital, to discuss how his approach to venture evolved from chasing power laws to focusing on fundamentals. Eric explains why most venture frameworks only make sense in hindsight, how thinking like a value investor can improve early-stage decision-making, and why founder quality is ultimately revealed through execution, not narratives. We also explore concentrated markets, late-stage venture dynamics, and how reputation, conviction, and timing shape outcomes across cycles.

What if the biggest opportunity in healthcare isn’t new drugs—but reinventing how the entire system works? In this episode, I sit down with David Berry, Founder of over 20 companies including seven $1B+ businesses, to discuss why the traditional biotech model is breaking and where the next wave of innovation in healthcare is emerging. David explains how pricing pressure, rising costs, and global competition are compressing returns in drug development, while AI, data, and new business models are unlocking entirely new ways to deliver care. We also explore how technology is transforming clinical trials, why healthcare is shifting beyond pharmaceuticals, and how investors can find opportunity in mispriced parts of the market.

What if the best venture returns come from avoiding trends—not chasing them? In this episode, I sit down with Colin, Co-Founder of Narya, to discuss how he approaches investing in frontier sectors without falling into mimetic behavior. Colin explains why the best opportunities are often “hidden in plain sight,” how mission-driven investing can still generate venture-scale returns, and why concentration, not diversification, drives outcomes in venture. We also explore defense, space, and advanced manufacturing, and how timing, business model innovation, and founder quality ultimately determine success.

What if the biggest edge in investing isn’t picking better assets—but structuring them better for taxes, incentives, and control? In this episode, I sit down with Michel, Founding CIO of a16z Perennial, to discuss how institutional investing frameworks translate to individual portfolios. Michel breaks down why most wealth management fails at true investment management, how misaligned incentives shape outcomes, and why scale, access, and structure matter more than traditional asset allocation. We also explore concentrated portfolios, tax alpha, and how psychology ultimately determines whether a strategy succeeds or fails.

Is the real edge in investing not picking assets but structuring how you allocate capital? Terence Thompson is a Vice President of Investments at DF Enterprises, about how single family offices think about portfolio construction, liquidity, and structural alpha. We break down why Terry uses a total portfolio approach, how family offices create edge through flexibility, and why being a liquidity provider during market stress is one of the most powerful strategies. We also discuss concentration risk in public markets, the evolution of private markets, and how allocators can think about illiquidity, secondaries, and niche opportunities.

What if the biggest edge in venture today isn’t picking companies—but owning the entire lifecycle of capital? In this episode, I sit down with Paris Heymann, Co-Managing Partner of Technology Investing at J.P. Morgan Private Capital, to discuss how the boundaries between public and private markets are breaking down. Paris explains why companies are staying private longer, how value is increasingly accruing to private investors, and why multi-stage platforms are becoming the new model for capturing returns. We also explore how AI is shifting business models from selling software to selling work, why founder quality still drives outcomes, and how power laws continue to dominate both private and public markets.

Is private equity alpha really about picking great deals—or about executing the same playbook better than everyone else? In this episode, I discuss with Monty Yort, Managing Partner at GenNx360 Capital Partners, about how disciplined execution and consistency drive long-term outperformance in private equity. We break down how GenNx360 approaches proactive sourcing, why lower middle market investing creates structural advantages, and how operational improvement and buy-and-build strategies compound value over time. Monty also shares lessons on leadership, mentorship, and why the best firms continuously refine their process rather than chase new strategies.