E267: Why 95% of LPs Misread Private Market Returns

Why do so many strong GPs struggle to raise capital today and what actually separates fast, oversubscribed fundraises from stalled ones? In this episode, I talk with Alexander Russ, Senior Managing Director at Evercore and Head of North America for the firm’s Private Funds Group, about what really drives fundraising success in today’s crowded private markets. Alex breaks down the psychology of LP decision-making, why momentum in the first close matters more than almost anything else, and how the best GPs differentiate themselves through narrative, preparation, and credibility rather than fee discounts. We dive into why fundraising is ultimately a momentum machine, how to engineer demand early, and why trust—built over years—can be lost in a single raise.

Do private markets actually outperform public markets once you properly adjust for risk or is that belief built on flawed data? In this episode, I talk with Dr. Gregory W. Brown, one of the leading academic researchers in alternative investments, about what decades of data really say about private equity, venture capital, and risk-adjusted returns. We break down why private-market performance is so hard to measure, how tools like the Kaplan–Schoar PME changed institutional thinking, and what investors misunderstand about beta, volatility, and alpha. Greg also explains why buyouts and ventures behave very differently, how fund size and geography affect outcomes, and what this research implies for building diversified portfolios today.

Why do most investors fail at the exact moments when staying invested matters most—and how can options help fix that? In this episode, I talk with Hamilton Reiner, Managing Director at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and CIO of the U.S. Core Equity Team, about how options can be used not for speculation, but to create discipline, manage risk, and help investors stay invested through market volatility. Hamilton shares lessons from more than three decades managing equities and derivatives, explains why volatility is misunderstood, and breaks down how hedged strategies, rebalancing, and risk-based portfolio construction can dramatically improve long-term outcomes—without requiring heroic market timing.

Why do the most successful investors and founders still miss their best opportunities—and how much of that comes down to poor relationship management? In this episode, I talk with Patrick Ewers, founder of Mindmaven, about why relationships—not intelligence or effort—are the true limiting factor in professional success. Patrick shares lessons from being an early employee at LinkedIn under Reid Hoffman, coaching partners at top firms like Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz, and building a systemized approach to relationship management that scales. We break down why important things lose to urgent ones, how delegation and leverage unlock effectiveness, and why small, consistent actions compound into billion-dollar outcomes.

How do the best venture investors consistently spot unicorn founders before the rest of the market even knows they exist? In this episode, I talk with Jamie Lee, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Tamarack Global, about sourcing asymmetric deal flow in deep tech and why founder referrals are the single strongest signal of future breakout companies. Jamie explains how Tamarack applies hedge-fund-level diligence at the seed stage, why intuition and pattern recognition matter as much as data, and how concentrated conviction—combined with relentless research—drives their unusually high unicorn hit rate. We also explore humanoid robotics, labor automation, and why the next industrial revolution is already underway.

How do you scale a growth equity firm from a $52M first fund to $5B across six funds—without losing discipline or trust? In this episode, I talk with Brian Neider, Managing Partner at Lead Edge Capital, about building a durable growth equity platform by combining rigorous metrics with deep relationship-building. Brian shares how Lead Edge created a differentiated LP model centered on high-net-worth individuals who actively support portfolio companies, why communication and education compound trust over decades, and how a strict investment framework helps avoid negative alpha as the firm scales. We also discuss why exits matter more than paper gains, how to think about “walking dead” portfolio companies, and what truly energizes long-term investing.

How do you build portfolios that survive liquidity crises, inflation shocks, and the most volatile market regimes in modern history? In this episode, I talk with Alfred Lee, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Q Wealth Partners and one of Canada’s most experienced multi-asset portfolio architects. Alfred previously managed over $75 billion across equities, fixed income, commodities, factor strategies, and thematic ETFs at BMO—while also spending a year at the Bank of Canada running part of its quantitative easing program during the pandemic. He shares what he learned from overseeing $25B in fixed income and $50B in equities, how ETFs transformed the public markets, why alpha is harder to generate than ever, and why alternatives, real assets, CTAs, and discretionary macro strategies must anchor the next generation of portfolios.

What does it take to build a sovereign wealth fund from scratch—and still outperform in some of the hardest markets in decades? In this episode, I talk with Peter Madsen, Chief Investment Officer of the Utah School & Institutional Trust Funds Office (SITFO), one of the most quietly sophisticated sovereign wealth funds in the United States. Peter shares how he went from running hedge fund portfolios in London to becoming the first investment hire tasked with modernizing Utah’s endowment. We break down SITFO’s philosophy on mean reversion, factor-based investing, public vs. private markets, active vs. passive strategy, and how a small CIO team competes with far larger institutions. Peter also explains why small caps are broken, how he shifted capital into private equity, why micro-VC funds outperform mega-funds, and how SITFO uses AI and collaborative models to underwrite managers in a world of overwhelming information.

How do you turn distressed opportunities into structural alpha—again and again—in an asset class most investors still misunderstand? In this episode, I’m joined by Philip Benjamin, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Colzen Capital, about how he built a differentiated pre-exit liquidity strategy that serves founders, executives, and investors simultaneously. Philip shares how his fourth-generation real estate background and the 2008 financial crisis shaped his investing worldview, how he applies a distressed-real-estate mindset to late-stage ventures, and why Colzen’s structured equity financing model creates downside protection, aligned incentives, and access to elite companies long before IPO. We also discuss portfolio construction, expected return math, founder psychology, and why this emerging asset class is quietly becoming massive.

What does it take to build four top-decile crypto funds in one of the most volatile asset classes on earth? In this episode, I talk with Rennick Palley, Founder of Stratos, about how he approaches crypto investing with a disciplined, mathematically grounded framework. We break down how Stratos constructs top-performing venture and liquid portfolios, why crypto is shifting from momentum-driven trends to fundamentals, how to size positions without blowing up, and why Bitcoin and gold are behaving the way they are in today’s macro environment. Rennick also shares his philosophy on decisiveness, conviction, and avoiding the costly mistakes investors make when they hesitate.