The Fed Just Became Irrelevant | Gary Brode

AI's $3.1 trillion in off balance sheet commitments can end two ways, and both end with the printer running. Jackson, Michael and Brian make the case for Bitcoin, from the biggest ETF inflow day of 2026 to Howard Marks's new memo and BlackRock's AI research.BOOK A CONSULTATIONHolding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits.👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-tlt-podGET ON THE LISTOur research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email.📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-tlt-podABOUT THIS EPISODEBitcoin ETFs just logged their biggest inflow day of 2026 at $999 million, and year-to-date flows turned positive as holders who sat through the bear market came back above their roughly $81,000 cost basis. The hosts debate whether retail is really back or a larger marginal buyer is behind the move, and whether Bitcoin ends up owned like gold. BlackRock's new paper, The Machine-Native Economy, casts stablecoins as the money AI agents spend and Bitcoin as the store of value, citing Bitcoin Policy Institute research. Howard Marks's latest Oaktree memo calls Treasury intervention in the bond market cosmetic and says dollar assets offer no escape. The back half covers tokenization and the CFTC after the Clarity Act stalled, the FBI data leak, $3.1 trillion in off balance sheet AI commitments, and why prices were nearly flat for 140 years before 1940.CHAPTERS00:00 - Welcome and the Philly happy hour03:00 - Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive for 202604:53 - Is retail back, or is there a bigger buyer?10:34 - $999M: the biggest ETF inflow day of 202613:15 - Bitcoin vs gold: will retail ever FOMO in?20:53 - BlackRock on AI agents, stablecoins and Bitcoin30:03 - Saving a dollar two ways since 202033:23 - Howard Marks: Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics?39:14 - Bonds spike, gold slides, Bitcoin rises45:49 - Is 60/40 becoming 80/15/5?51:45 - Clarity stalls, the CFTC and tokenization1:00:04 - Single point of failure of the week: the FBI data leak1:06:31 - The AI documentary and pacing the frontier1:15:20 - $3.1 trillion in off balance sheet AI commitments1:17:44 - Either way, they have to print1:19:30 - 140 years of flat prices, then 1940ABOUT THE SHOWThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term.▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode]MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA• Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE• Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify• News and data: https://onramp.mediaOnramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

The average Bitcoin ETF holder is back in profit for the first time since January, and the data says most of them held through the whole drawdown. Also on the clock: SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic out-valuing 45 years of US tech IPOs, Meta's Muse agent matching ChatGPT's launch, and wash trading allegations at Kalshi. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?OPEN A FREE ONRAMP FINANCE ACCOUNTOne free account to buy Bitcoin, use the Onramp Terminal, and access the rest of Onramp: Bitcoin IRA, Bitcoin-backed loans, and Multi-Institution Custody. Recurring buys carry no Onramp trading fee. Active clients are eligible for Onramp-funded rewards up to 5%. Cash back on the Onramp Card converts to Bitcoin in one click. Takes a few minutes to open.👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn-podGET ON THE LISTOur research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email.📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-svn-podCHAPTERS00:00 - Intro00:56 - Topic 1 - Bitcoin ETF Holders Are Back Above Their Cost Basis08:01 - Topic 2 - SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic vs 45 Years of US Tech IPOs13:34 - Topic 3 - Meta's Muse AI Agent Rivals the ChatGPT Launch22:15 - Topic 4 - Kalshi Faces Wash Trading Allegations27:35 - Wrap-Up & Lightning Round: AI Token Data from Vercel and OpenRouterABOUT THE SHOWSignal vs Noise is a twice-weekly livestream and show unpacking the biggest stories across capital, markets, technology, and people, six minutes on the clock for each, with Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis.MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA• The Last Trade, Final Settlement, and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify• News and data: https://onramp.mediaOnramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

Meta shipped Muse to a user base measured in billions, and within days Amazon blocked it from shopping on Amazon.com. Michael, Liam and Brian on why autonomous agents will need a settlement unit, and why that is the clearest path yet to Bitcoin becoming ordinary money.BOOK A CONSULTATIONHolding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits.👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-fs-podGET ON THE LIST• Onramp: our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-fs-pod• Early Riders Insights: the best content in the ecosystem, weekly. https://www.earlyriders.com/researchABOUT THIS EPISODEMeta's Muse personal agent is the story of the week, and Michael calls it the biggest thing that has happened in AI so far. It is already ordering groceries, booking services and canceling subscriptions for users, and Amazon has cut it off from shopping on Amazon.com. The argument the three of them build from there is that agents traversing the internet will eventually hit monetary friction, that something has to sit between an agent and the open web, and that Meta acquiring Lightspark is the obvious way it gets a payment layer. Earlier in the show they work through the SEC's five year innovation exemption, which opens tokenized equity trading without the Clarity Act, and what Goldman and Citizens analysts read into it for Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle. The back half covers TypeSafe's Jev model, Tether's $1.45 billion position at Gold.com, and stablecoin hiring at Apple and Google.CHAPTERS00:00 - Bitcoin rips overnight, and the leverage that got washed out05:29 - Bitcoin climbs after a rate hike, which is not how this usually goes07:15 - The SEC's innovation exemption lands without the Clarity Act09:26 - Why a securities rule matters for a commodity13:33 - Goldman and Citizens: Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle win15:48 - Circle's Arc, eleven validators, and what decentralized is not18:25 - The banks sat this one out, and why that ages badly23:13 - The tokens will flow: OpenRouter usage up 25,000%27:14 - Jev, and the case against burning tokens to make a decision33:29 - Meta ships Muse, the biggest AI moment yet38:44 - Amazon cuts off Muse, and the agent knife fight begins42:32 - Why Meta buying Lightspark is the obvious next move46:45 - Instinct raises at $10 billion, and the paper gain problem50:39 - Tether becomes a bullion bank, and Big Tech hires for stablecoins58:40 - Single point of failure of the week: California's AI kill switchABOUT THE SHOWFinal Settlement is a weekly show on capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, Bitcoin applications, and protocol development, presented by Early Riders and Onramp Media with Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis.• Connect with Early Riders: https://www.earlyriders.com/contact• Michael: https://x.com/MTanguma · Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 · Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTC▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode]MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA• The Last Trade and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia• Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify• News and data: https://onramp.mediaOnramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

The Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023, and Gary Brode's answer is that it changed nothing at all. Jackson sits down with the Deep Knowledge Investing founder on why the Fed is now irrelevant, and why he spent a month paying for lunch in Bitcoin.Guest: Gary Brode, founder of http://deepknowledgeinvesting.com/ and a former long/short hedge fund managerX: https://x.com/Gary_BrodeBOOK A CONSULTATIONHolding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits.👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-tlt-podGET ON THE LISTOur research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email.📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-tlt-podABOUT THIS EPISODEGary Brode's argument is that the Federal Reserve has become a spectator. The Fed sets the overnight rate, but corporate borrowing is priced off the five year Treasury and mortgages off the ten year, and the bond market answered two years and 200 basis points of cuts by pushing long yields higher. With the ten year just under 5% and M2 growing about 5%, the real return on Treasuries is roughly zero, which is why Brode says Kevin Warsh is right that policy was never restrictive and why 25 basis points changes nothing. What matters instead is Congress, overspending by trillions a year, and a Treasury he reads as panicking through its buyback expansion and its yen purchases ahead of the midterms. His conclusion is to own what cannot be printed. He closes on a month in El Salvador, where he paid for lunch over Lightning and calls Bitcoin a working currency.CHAPTERS00:00 - Gary Brode on the Fed's First Hike Since 202302:03 - Why 2% Inflation Is Theft, Not a Target04:30 - Congress, Nixon and the End of the Gold Standard07:13 - What the Bond Market Is Telling the Fed09:10 - The Fed Does Not Control Interest Rates11:45 - Warsh Is Right, Policy Was Never Restrictive15:24 - Why the Fed Is Now Irrelevant16:10 - Hard Assets: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Uranium21:45 - Why Bitcoin Rallied When the Treasury Panicked26:10 - The Yen Intervention and the Reverse Carry Trade31:09 - The Midterm Playbook and the Inside Information Line39:22 - Gas Prices Are Not Up in 40 Years46:00 - The 60/40 Portfolio and the AI Capex Risk48:20 - OpenAI, NVIDIA and Circular Financing52:56 - El Salvador: From 36 Murders a Day to Near Zero56:00 - Bitcoin Beach, the Coffee Test and Lightning1:02:13 - A Dollar Economy That Settles in Sats1:05:47 - Where to Find Gary BrodeABOUT THE SHOWThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term.▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode]MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA• Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE• Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify• News and data: https://onramp.mediaOnramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

The Clarity Act fell short in the Senate, and the banking lobby's fear of deposit flight looks like the real sticking point. Jackson, Michael and Brian cover why banks keep building anyway, the oil shock squeezing consumers, and Strategy's STRC buybacks.BOOK A CONSULTATIONHolding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits.👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-tlt-pod*JOIN US AT THE HAPPY HOUR*https://luma.com/event/manage/evt-tQqELhgtqTAeF8UGET ON THE LISTOur research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email.📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-tlt-podABOUT THIS EPISODEThe Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote, and Brian argues the ethics fight reads as cover for the banking lobby's fear of deposit flight, a fear a late Treasury circuit breaker did not settle. Michael points to the GENIUS Act already on the books and to bank custody rules as the piece to watch, while Jackson reads Deutsche Bank's planned custody service for institutions as proof the build continues regardless. The middle of the episode follows the oil shock, from Saudi Arabia canceling late September cargoes to Europe after the East West pipeline shut, to diesel prices and a Fed preparing its first rate hike in three years, and why 25 basis points fixes nothing structural. The back half covers consumers aged 40 to 49 taking the largest share of new bankruptcies since 2015, Strategy repurchasing roughly $950 million of STRC, Satsuma selling all 669 BTC, and Revolut handing nearly 700 customers' data to scammers.CHAPTERS00:00 - Housekeeping and the Philly happy hour02:55 - The Clarity Act fails in the Senate05:15 - Brian: the banking lobby and deposit flight08:23 - Bankers, stablecoins and the circuit breaker fight10:02 - The GENIUS Act and why adoption happens anyway12:04 - Deutsche Bank plans Bitcoin custody for institutions13:39 - Saudi Arabia cancels crude cargoes to Europe16:19 - We feel acceleration, not speed18:59 - How the chaos hides the $40 trillion debt23:50 - The Fed, the bond market and a coming rate hike28:37 - Consumer bankruptcies and the K-shaped economy33:15 - Strategy's STRC buybacks and the treasury companies40:45 - Can a Bitcoin treasury company beat Bitcoin?43:28 - Satsuma sells all 669 BTC44:17 - Single point of failure of the week: Revolut's data leak52:52 - Pacing the frontier and the push to slow AIABOUT THE SHOWThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term.▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode]MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA• Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE• Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify• News and data: https://onramp.mediaOnramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

Anthropic's Dario Amodei says AI labs must pace the frontier. Is it safety, or cost control ahead of an IPO? With Cam Stromme sitting in for Michael, four stories on the clock: that slowdown call, a Fed hike priced in with the 10-year above 5%, foreign money picking US stocks over Treasuries, and the bank deposit fight inside the CLARITY Act. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?OPEN A FREE ONRAMP FINANCE ACCOUNTOne free account to buy Bitcoin, use the Onramp Terminal, and access the rest of Onramp: Bitcoin IRA, Bitcoin-backed loans, and Multi-Institution Custody. Recurring buys carry no Onramp trading fee. Active clients are eligible for Onramp-funded rewards up to 5%. Cash back on the Onramp Card converts to Bitcoin in one click. Takes a few minutes to open.👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn-podGET ON THE LISTOur research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email.📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-svn-podCHAPTERS00:00 - Intro01:03 - Topic 1 - Anthropic's Dario Amodei Says AI Labs Must Pace the Frontier09:23 - Topic 2 - Polymarket Prices a Fed Rate Hike as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5%17:06 - Topic 3 - Foreign Investors Now Prefer US Stocks to US Treasuries25:17 - Topic 4 - The Battle for Bank Deposits and the CLARITY Act Vote33:39 - Wrap-Up & the Strategic Bitcoin ReserveABOUT THE SHOWSignal vs Noise is a twice-weekly livestream and show unpacking the biggest stories across capital, markets, technology, and people, six minutes on the clock for each, with Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis.MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA• The Last Trade, Final Settlement, and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify• News and data: https://onramp.mediaOnramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

New Clarity Act text dropped overnight ahead of a Senate vote on September 15, with the ethics sunset deleted and the ban broadened. Michael, Liam and Brian on why the institutional money is still on the sidelines waiting to see whether the United States fully commits.BOOK A CONSULTATIONHolding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits.👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-fs-podGET ON THE LIST• Onramp: our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-fs-pod• Early Riders Insights: the best content in the ecosystem, weekly. https://www.earlyriders.com/researchABOUT THIS EPISODEMichael, Liam and Brian open on the Clarity Act, where new text dropped overnight ahead of a Senate vote on September 15, the ethics sunset was deleted entirely, and the ban got broader and enforceable by state attorneys general. They get into why the agencies are moving with or without the bill, the 17 attorneys general lining up against it, and why so much institutional money is still waiting to see whether the United States fully commits. The middle of the show is Dario Amodei's Pacing the Frontier essay and the responses from Trump, Sam Altman, Elon Musk and David Sacks, including whether this is the SBF playbook running again and what the IPO timing says about the motive. The back half runs through Nasdaq putting $100 million into Kraken's parent, TRM Labs doubling to a $2 billion valuation, Tether's $400 million private credit joint venture, and Block applying to the OCC for Builders Bank.CHAPTERS00:00 - Live on a Monday, and the 10 year at 5%01:06 - The Clarity Act text gets rewritten overnight03:50 - What the new ethics provisions actually ban07:01 - Why stablecoins make Clarity strategically urgent08:57 - The agencies move with or without the bill, and 17 AGs push back13:27 - Polymarket: 82% in February, 14% in August, 30% now15:10 - Dario Amodei's Pacing the Frontier essay18:39 - Is this the SBF playbook running again?22:46 - Trump, Altman, Musk and David Sacks respond28:58 - IPO timing, the duopoly, and why you cannot police China33:50 - Nasdaq puts $100 million into Kraken's parent37:10 - TRM Labs doubles to a $2 billion valuation39:01 - Tether's $400 million private credit joint venture41:51 - Block applies for Builders Bank, plus Coinbase, Bitwise and Canada46:46 - Single point of failure of the week: the Revolut breachABOUT THE SHOWFinal Settlement is a weekly show on capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, Bitcoin applications, and protocol development, presented by Early Riders and Onramp Media with Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis.• Connect with Early Riders: https://www.earlyriders.com/contact• Michael: https://x.com/MTanguma · Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 · Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTC▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode]MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA• The Last Trade and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia• Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify• News and data: https://onramp.mediaOnramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

Connect with Early Riders — https://www.earlyriders.com/contactConnect with Onramp — https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…Final Settlement Interview Series: a one on one interview series hosted by Liam Nelson, Partner at Early Riders. One guest, and a deep conversation on the deals, the capital and the technology moving through bitcoin, so you can hear how the people actually doing the work think about where the future is going.Liam sits down with Alfonso Gómez-Jordana, co-founder and CTO of Crossmint, who built Google's "I'm not a robot" captcha as an intern and now builds the payment rails those bots use. His argument is that money is becoming a back end technology: agents will hold the card, pick the rail, convert into stablecoins when an endpoint demands it, and inside of ten years most people will stop looking at prices or approving transactions at all. They get into why MoneyGram is replacing its core with stablecoins and finally monetizing float it never touched, why standing up stablecoin acceptance is now easier than getting a Stripe account, what breaks when a prompt injected agent is spending money that is not its own, and whether Bitcoin stays the neutral settlement asset once data centers find something better to mine.Chapters00:00 - Alfonso Gómez-Jordana, co-founder and CTO of Crossmint01:37 - Building "I'm not a robot" at Google, then Firebase and WhatsApp06:12 - Why an economy of agents needs programmable money07:53 - Inside Crossmint: wallets, tokenization, licensed fiat swaps09:50 - The clients: trading apps, MoneyGram, payroll, agent platforms12:57 - Do stablecoins help remittances, or do they monetize the float17:59 - The principal agent problem when a bot holds your money24:57 - Why accepting a card is harder than accepting a stablecoin26:52 - Hacks, trust, and who decides which rail gets used30:47 - Tether, Circle, OpenUSD, and whether one stablecoin wins34:05 - Bitcoin as neutral money, and the compute mined challengers38:27 - Could Bitcoin's consensus follow AI compute40:36 - What the industry got wrong about web3 and consumer crypto43:47 - From meme coins to real assets and tokenized fundraising47:18 - Euro stablecoins and why every country needs a strategy53:13 - Past the singularity, money moves to the back endIf you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://www.earlyriders.com/researchKeep up with Liam:https://x.com/Lnelson_21Keep up with Alfonso Gómez-Jordana:https://x.com/alfongj

First Principles: self custody is a skill you practice, not a device you buy. Tyler Campbell, product manager at Unchained and one of the most experienced multisig onboarders in bitcoin, joins Cam Stromme to rebuild custody as a habit rather than a purchase. The through line is the one they both keep coming back to: find your single points of failure, and then go use your keys before the day you have to.---🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.👉 Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys — open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt📩 Schedule a consultation:https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tltFirst Principles: a Bitcoin education series from Onramp Media, hosted by Cam Stromme, Head of Private Wealth at Onramp. Long, unhurried conversations that build the hard questions in bitcoin back up from the ground, one principle at a time, so you can make better decisions about your own wealth.🎙️ About This EpisodeTyler Campbell spent years on Zoom calls walking people through their first hardware wallet, one seed phrase at a time, before moving to the product side at Unchained. That vantage point produces the argument at the center of this episode: almost everyone treats custody as something you buy once, and almost nobody treats it as something you rehearse. Cam pushes the comparison to gun ownership, where a person can own the right tool, attend one class, and still be useless in the moment that counts. Tyler's practical answer is smaller than people expect. Move a thousand dollars in. Move a thousand dollars back out. Do it before you need to. They also work through the privacy trade off of ever revealing yourself to a custody partner, what the entropy failure in the Coldcard exploit should actually change about your priors, why the lineage from Mt. Gox through FTX to Bybit is one repeated failure and not four, whether paying for custody is rational when you have been getting it free, and the conversation most bitcoiners avoid entirely: selling some of your bitcoin, and why Tyler is glad he did.🧠 Chapters00:00 - Two Bitcoiners, one Minneapolis meetup, ten years01:19 - From private blockchains to bitcoin only07:01 - Leaving Circle for Unchained in the Austin boom14:42 - What collaborative custody actually is, and why onboarding is emotional work20:53 - Eliminate your single points of failure24:42 - The privacy trade off of using a partner27:58 - Take it slow: move a thousand dollars in, then out32:26 - You own the gun. You never went to the range.35:52 - When the gold standard device is too much device37:59 - The Coldcard hack: the entropy was not random41:45 - Mt. Gox to FTX to Bybit: the same failure every time44:51 - Do not get comfortable because the bullet missed you47:21 - Should you actually pay for custody51:15 - Still driving the car you bought ten years ago54:22 - The cardinal sin: selling some of your bitcoin59:58 - Bitcoin backed loans and what the rate tells you1:07:31 - From onboarding calls to building the product1:15:48 - Parting advice: tell a friend, try multisig💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadGet Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/researchSubscribe to Onramp Media for more:🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | First Principles | TLT Interview Series | FS Interview Series

An ex-OpenAI and Anthropic researcher says there is over a 10% chance AI ends humanity within the decade, and his warning has already pulled in 150 million impressions online. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: Donald Trump promising $5,000 to every US adult if Republicans hold the midterms, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying nothing else matters if China wins the AI race, the 10-year Treasury yield near a 19-year high as the Treasury triples its bond buybacks, and a lightning round on OpenAI's contested 10,000-agent math proof. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?---🎙️ About The ShowSignal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.🧠 Chapters00:00 - Intro01:08 - Topic 1 - Trump Promises $5,000 to Every American If the GOP Wins07:13 - Topic 2 - An AI Researcher Says There's a 10% Chance AI Ends Humanity~13:30 - Topic 3 - Bessent Says Nothing Matters If China Wins the AI Race23:25 - Topic 4 - The Bond Market's Yield Crisis and the Treasury's Buyback Escalation29:24 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts💡 Subscribe & Watch Live:▶️ https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE✖️ https://x.com/OnrampMedia📰 Your 1-Stop News & Data Source:https://onramp.media/🔸 Buy, hold, and secure your bitcoin in one place. Open a free Onramp Finance account.👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement | First Principles | TLT / FS Interview Series