Episode 274: Afghanistan: what future for the country? with Dr. Arian Sharifi

Dive into the ongoing war with Cormac Smith today. Dominic and Cormac discuss Mariupol, whether the war can be considered genocide, the disinformation war, the reality of Russian aggression, war crimes, hybrid warfare, the need for unity, and more!Today we are joined by Cormac Smith. Cormac works at the intersection of authentic leadership & effective communication. He travelled to Ukraine in 2016 to take up a special appointment as the ‘Strategic Communication Advisor’ to Pavlo Klimkin, the then Foreign Minister of Ukraine. Cormac was attached to the British Embassy in Kyiv but was embedded in Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the first foreigner to hold such a position. There he worked for the cabinet ministers of Health, Education and the Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, he worked with The National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine and the NATO mission to the country. In 2018, Cormac joined the National Security Communication Team in the Cabinet Office, specifically to advise on Russian Disinformation / Hybrid Warfare tactics, in the wake of the Skripal poisoning in Salisbury. In addition, Cormac is a communication coach & charity leader & Bobsleigh veteran!The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

In this episode, Dominic Bowen and Dr. Arian Sharifi discuss the events leading to the fall of Kabul in August 2021   and the rise of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan.  Find out more about what the Taliban have implemented in the country, how they managed to secure most of the territory from terrorism, and set a record of complete control of the territory in 50 years since the departure of the US military forces from the country.The conversation also addresses acute human rights violations against the Afghan population and the expected fall of the economy following the ban on opium production. Dominic and Arian also examine the security risks in the region emanating from different terrorist groups (especially the TTP, IS-El-K ) and the ongoing historical fight for dominion over Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Dr Sharifi assesses the way to a sustainable state through negotiations and Hibatullah Akhundzada’s change of heart regarding necessary reforms.Dr. Arian Sharifi is an American-Afghan national security professional with two decades of high-level policy and academic experience. While serving as Assistant National Security Advisor for President Ghani of Afghanistan, he advised senior leaders on foreign and security affairs, led the development of over 20 national-level policies and strategies – including the National Security Policy and Counter-terrorism Strategy – and implemented numerous operations, programs, and projects in the security and intelligence sectors. Dr. Sharifi has taught graduate school at Princeton University, conducted specialized research for major organizations, and advised leading institutions including the UN, NATO, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, and others. Sharifi holds a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in International Security Studies from Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, a Master’s in Public Affairs (MPA) from Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, and a Bachelor’s (BA) in Political Science from Wesleyan University. He has published widely in academic and policy journals, and is a frequent commentator on strategic and security issues in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive adTell us what you liked!

Today Dominic Bowen hosts Professor Adam Chalmers on The International Risk Podcast to explore the global race for leadership in artificial intelligence. They discuss the United States’ AI Action Plan and China’s AI Plus Plan, how these competing strategies reveal different models of governance, regulation, and ideology, and what this competition means for innovation, global influence, and risk. Together they examine how the U.S. approach emphasizes open innovation and technological dominance, how China’s plan embeds ideology and state control, and how the European Union’s AI Act represents a third path prioritizing human-centric regulation.Dominic and Adam also dive into the economic and geopolitical stakes of the AI race, from workforce disruption and re-skilling to public trust, data sovereignty, and the challenge of building safe and transparent AI systems. They explore how governments can manage risk while fostering innovation, how universities and industries must adapt to rapid change, and what it means for democracy and international stability as artificial intelligence becomes a driver of both progress and power.Professor Adam Chalmers is an Associate Professor of Politics at the University of Edinburgh, the CEO and Founder of Resonate AI, and a leading voice on the intersection of political economy, technology, and governance. He has advised governments and organizations on AI strategy and risk, and his work bridges academic research with practical solutions for emerging technologies.Drawing on his research and field experience, Adam explains how AI is reshaping global politics, why public trust and ethical frameworks will define its future, and how democracies can respond to the rapidly evolving risks of the digital age.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

Pakistan is once again underwater.In the country’s north—specifically the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—torrential monsoon rains dropped 150 millimeters in under an hour. That’s six inches of rain, fast enough to overwhelm any drainage system. But here, it didn’t just flood streets—it destroyed entire communities. At least 700 people are dead. Over 100 are missing. And in Bishnoi village, 50% of all homes are gone—flattened or washed away.This isn’t just bad weather. It’s a lethal convergence of natural vulnerability and systemic fragility: hilly terrain, deforestation, poor infrastructure, and collapsing governance capacity. Add climate change, and Pakistan—already one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations—is facing a catastrophe that’s becoming alarmingly routine.On today’s episode of The International Risk Podcast, we’re not just discussing weather patterns. We’re talking about how extreme climate events are redrawing the map of risk—impacting state stability, migration flows, food security, and the future of regional cooperation.Today, we are joined by Dr. Erum Sattar, LLB, LLM, SJD, a Pakistani legal scholar specialising in water law amidst global environmental and institutional challenges. She is a lecturer and former Program Director of the Sustainable Water Management Program at Tufts University in Boston. She holds degrees from Harvard Law School, Queen Mary University and the University of London. Dr Sattar is a Member of the Bar of England and Wales, as well as The Honourable Society of Lincoln's Inn. Her interdisciplinary research examines the impact of water governance and transboundary water sharing on food production, livelihoods and migration, highlighting the legal and institutional adaptation structures required at a global level. She has an upcoming chapter on International Water Law and its history, application and future in Pakistan and is also co-editor of the upcoming The Cambridge Handbook of Islam and Environmental Law. The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.Tell us what you liked!

Today Dominic Bowen hosts Doug Livermore on the podcast to discuss the rise of authoritarian alliances. They dive into the growing cooperation between China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and their proxies, the economic and military dependencies that underpin these relationships, how authoritarian regimes leverage propaganda and “unrestricted warfare,” the role of countries like Venezuela, Sudan, and the Houthis in this expanding network, lessons from Ukraine as a testing ground for irregular tactics and advanced technology, the risks this poses to democratic societies, and much more!Doug is Senior Vice President at CenCore Group and a Lieutenant Colonel in the US Army Special Operations Command. He has served in Iraq, Afghanistan, Mali, and the Congo, and previously directed sensitive activities and irregular warfare at the Office of the Secretary of the Navy. He has also served as Senior Operations Advisor to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict. A decorated officer, Doug has received the Meritorious Service Medal, the Bronze Star, and multiple Army Commendation Medals, including one for valor, and he holds both the Ranger and Special Forces tabs.Doug brings deep expertise on special operations, irregular warfare, and national security, combining frontline military experience with high-level strategic advisory roles in Washington. His insights draw on years of work at the intersection of defense, geopolitics, and the private sector, helping audiences understand how authoritarian regimes are reshaping the global order and how democracies can respond.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

Today Dominic Bowen hosts Broderick McDonald on the podcast to discuss the future of Syria. They dive into the different external actors and their interests, the challenges that the new government of Syria is facing, the fine line of institutional reform and unity, the need for inclusion of the minority groups, what the impact is of sanctions relief, lessons from Syria for global conflict, and much more!Broderick McDonald is a Research Fellow at Kings College London’s XCEPT Research Programme and a Research Associate the Oxford Emerging Threats Group. Prior to this, he served as an Advisor to the Government of Canada and was a Fellow with the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC). Broderick's writing and commentary has appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Financial Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph, and The Globe and Mail amongst others. Alongside his research, Broderick provides expert analysis for a range of international news broadcasters, including ABC News, BBC News, BBC America, CBC News, Good Morning America, France24, and Al Jazeera News.Broderick currently serves on the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism’s (GIFCT) Independent Advisory Committee and the GLOCA Board of Advisors. He previously lived in the Middle East and has conducted extensive fieldwork with combatants from ISIS, HTS, and other armed groups. Alongside his research, Broderick has advised governments, NGOs, law enforcement agencies, intelligence agencies, international prosecutors, parliamentarians, AI Safety Institutes, frontier AI labs, and social media companies on security threats and emerging technologies.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

In this episode Dominic Bowen speaks with Shayan Talabany, Senior Analyst and Advisor at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, about shifting U.S. strategies in the Middle East and what they mean for governance, security, and economic opportunity across the region. They explore how the U.S. retreat from interventionism is reshaping regional power balances, whether self-reliance can bring stability, and how countries like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon are navigating enormous economic and political pressures.Listeners will learn about the risks posed by fragile social contracts and youth unemployment, the uncertain futures of nationalism and populism in the region, how Gaza is influencing both leadership and public opinion in Arab capitals, and the opportunities for businesses as regional governments seek deeper economic integration. Shayan also shares her on-the-ground experiences traveling through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, providing rare insights into the realities citizens face and the optimism that still exists despite immense challengesShayan Talabany is a Senior Analyst and Advisor at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, where she focuses on regional politics, security, and conflict dynamics across the Middle East, with particular expertise on Iraq and Syria. She holds degrees from SOAS, University of London, and the London School of Economics, and also serves as a faculty member with the Aspen Institute in the UK. At the Tony Blair Institute, she leads projects on governance reform, regional integration, and youth engagement, and she has traveled extensively across the Middle East conducting research and advising policymakers.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

When we think about flashpoints between India and Pakistan, most people picture borders, bombs, or Kashmir. But the most strategic weapon in South Asia today may not be nuclear—it’s water.The Indus Water Treaty has been called one of the world’s most successful peace agreements, surviving wars, nuclear standoffs, and decades of political hostility. But in April this year, India suspended the treaty after a terrorist attack in Kashmir, effectively threatening to choke off the lifeline of Pakistan’s agriculture and economy. For the first time in 65 years, the Indus—an ancient river system that sustains over 250 million people—has been turned into a tool of coercion.This is more than a regional spat. It’s a live experiment in how climate stress, nationalism, and security fears can dismantle one of the last bastions of cooperation between nuclear rivals. And if water becomes a weapon here, what does it mean for other fragile river basins—the Nile, the Mekong, the Jordan—where upstream states already hold the cards?Today, I’m joined by Professor Ashok Swain, UNESCO Chair on International Water Cooperation and Head of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University. He has authored and edited 20 books and more than 150 journal articles, and he is also the Founding Editor-in-Chief of the peer-reviewed journal Environment and Security, published by Sage. He has also served as a consultant on environmental and development issues, advising various international organisations, including UN agencies, OCSE, NATO, EU, IISS, the Arab League and Oxfam, as well as the governments of Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Singapore. Few people understand more about how rivers can both unite and divide nations. His work spans transboundary water politics, climate security, and conflict dynamics, and he has been one of the most vocal critics of India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.Tell us what you liked!

With the Zapad Military exercises occurring again near the Polish border, Dominic Bowen has Antoine Renaux on the podcast. They analyse the challenges of NATO, Russia's probing operations, NATO's response, and more importantly, NATO's preparedness. Find out more about Article 5 and the potential scenarios, why hybrid warfare and cyber attacks are the future and the geopolitical risks we are facing. Antoine Renaux is an Economic Intelligence & Geopolitics Analyst, his expertise lies in defence and security policy, economic intelligence, and geopolitical risk analysis. His career spans strategic intelligence, public affairs, and policy analysis roles across both public and private sectors, giving him a nuanced, operational understanding of complex international dynamics.His key areas of expertise lie in:OSINT & competitive intelligence in the defense industry.Policy & geopolitical analysis, including diplomatic reporting at the French Embassy’s Military Representation in Austria.Event & project management, including contributions to high-profile initiatives such as the Warsaw Security Forum.His approach combines precision, strategic insight, and actionable analysis to support decision-making in high-stakes environments. Motivated by a passion for strategy and security, I aim to contribute where analytical rigour, geopolitical awareness, and clear communication can make a decisive impact.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

The student-led protests in Serbia have been going on for months. Today we have Saša Dobrijević on the podcast to discuss:The government response to the protestsThe current situation in BelgradeWhat the Drivers are behind the ProtestGovernment ManipulationMedia InfluenceInternational InfluenceInternational RelationsAnd much more!Saša Dobrijević is an international journalist and reporter based in Belgrade. He is a seasoned journalist with experience in Munich in Berlin and Luxembourg, across geopolitics, social movements, and the green-energy transition. He’s covered protests up close, interviewed decision-makers, and understands how narratives harden, and how they break.Saša is a Diplomatic Press Passport holder, an award-winning journalist, an International Journalist, and a public speaking coach. He started his career as a radio host at the state radio station, trained by experienced editors and journalists who graduated from the University of Political Sciences in Belgrade. Then he moved on to researching the TV industry. Where he found out that he is passionate about video production, interviews, TV packages, and live reporting.His international career began in Munich, mostly reporting about geopolitical and social topics, and interviewing politicians and experts in various fields. He covered environmental and climate change topics, and innovations in green energy. Gained a unique experience, through reporting from protests in Munich, Bonn, Berlin, and Luxembourg.Finally, Saša is the Co-Founder of Pulse Theatre, Society of free artists, and of the media portal Straight to the center.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!