Grumpy Strategists Popes and Prime Ministers edition - Episode 40

With the UK Eurovision entry "What the Hell Just Happpppppened??" fitting Australia's reaction to the Trump AUKUS review, Marcus and Michael discuss the two Oz views: "PANIC it's over!!!!" & 'There's nothing to see, IT'S ALL PERFECTLY NATURAL" bunch - and set out why both are wrong. Politics, security, industrial capacity & cash are all at work here. This review won't be the last, particularly with 1. Anthony Albanese asserting his sovereign right to free ride on America while dissing Donald Trump, 2. US sub production numbers falling not rising, and 3. the UK's Keir Starmer choosing this moment to make UK submarine challenges 500% harder by doubling the UK's desired production rate while also building much bigger boats. What can go wrong?

Back from teaming with Dennis Rodman to help Kim Jong Un fix his naval troubles, the Grumpies get into myth busting on defence spending & on drones. They examine 6 common Myth Takes on defence spending & capability - a common feature is they all excuse inaction. Similar manoeuvres are used by those who still insist Australia's sleepy response to drone warfare is masterful & strategic. They finish with a look at the UK's new Defence Strategic Review - oops: Strategic Defence Review. It's not just a rebadge of Australia's DSR with additional buzzwords. Of course it's not. And it's not heroically courageous on submarine ambitions either.

Taiwan's representative in Australia, Douglas Hsu, talks with a Grumpy Strategist about the World Health Assembly, now as a time to reinforce multilateral & international organisations, and paths to reverse Beijing's attempts to isolate & intimidate Taiwan. They do something unusual: look at the texts that say what the UN actually said about recognition of the PRC (no mention of Taiwan) and how Australia's text recognising the PRC in 1972 does not sign up to Beijing's 'One China' formula - instead it 'acknowledges the position of the Chinese Government that Taiwan is a province of the PRC'. Words - and memory - matter, it turns out.

Marcus and Michael set out fast moving developments in military use of drones. they're happening not just in Ukraine, but in Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Singapore and the UK (just not in Australia). Then it's a dive into the Acting US Navy head's startling view that a US airstrike into Somalia was the biggliest in history. Then the Grumpies look at the investigation into the fatal Taipan helicopter crash, the Audit Office's scathing but calm assessment of Defence's failure to implement its own industry policy. The episode ends with some of the 'so what's' from revelations that Democrat seniors and White House staff worked around Joe Biden's obvious fragilities while assuring everyone they didn't exist.

The Grumpy Strategists road test Incat's latest product, the 130m electric ship "China Zorrilla", while assessing the whiplash shifts in American engagement with the Middle East. They contrast the ambitious 'Golden Dome' homeland defence project announced by Pres Trump with its lowballed price tag and courageously aspirational delivery date of 2029 with the Pentagon's troubled ICBM renewal program, the chronically delayed & over budget $141bn Sentinel program. The bright spot isn't data on the failed US campaign against the Houthis, it's the success of Aussie companies like Incat, Gilmour Space and EOS.

Marcus beams in from the Vatican after running the numbers for Pope Bob, while Michael fights his way through the clouds of smug spilling from the re-elected Labor government and a deeply relieved, complacent Defence bureaucracy. It turns out that the defeated Liberal-National coalition parties had a campaigning gift - unfortunately, it was in making Mr Albanese's performance look good. The Grumpies discuss what new polling reveals about the growing gap between government & the population on AUKUS, and the performative politics that is Trump 2.0

Marcus and Michael go through the -sparse - highlights of Australia's election campaign from a defence perspective - the Coalition's policy release has shifted the defence permafrost on funding and capabilities, and added a note of required urgency. But polls show a collapse in Australians seeing the US as a reliable ally. They also show reluctance to raise defence spending. Meanwhile, in DC the DOGE chainsaw has bogged in the swamp and Pentagon savings are turning into Pentagon spending, just why isn't clear....Also available as a Grumpies YouTube video podcast.

This is the audio only version of the Grumpies' first video podcast. The full version is available on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le9t8gRT380

The Grumpy Strategists visit Trump tariffs' Ground Zero on Heard Island. While President Trump's shifting global moves are creating uncertainty about working with America, the good news is that Australian strategists & planners must have got everything about our world now right years ago, judging by the unchanging nature of Defence plans & budgets since the 2016 White Paper. The Grumpies end by noticing that the AUKUS subs will cost $500bn more than the cancelled French program, Xi Jinping's purges continue - & 5% GDP on defence is the new normal. No changes here.

Grumpy Strategist Marcus Hellyer talks with co-founder Peter Jennings in SAA's secure bunker deep in the Brindabella ranges. They discuss the puzzle of the Canberra consensus that Australia is in a much more dangerous world, sitting alongside the fact that Australia's government and its security agencies are then taking no useful steps to strengthen our security. Instead, Australia is stuck with a plan to create a small, perfectly formed Australian military - the Fantasy Force - sometime in the 2040s, to plug seamlessly into an American force structure - while not knowing if America even wants such a thing...They set out practical ways Australia's military can be strengthened over the next 1, 3 and 5 years.