Navigating Complex Systems with Don Burke: Epidemiology, AI, and Modeling

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier sits down with Don Burke, co-founder of Epistemix and a trailblazing epidemiologist, to explore the fascinating intersection of infectious disease research, artificial intelligence, and agent-based modeling (ABM). Burke shares his journey from a traditional career in infectious disease research to becoming a passionate advocate for modeling and simulation, offering a behind-the-scenes look at his groundbreaking work with HIV, vaccines, and global disease prevention.

Burke recounts his early days in the military, developing vaccines for tropical diseases and his epiphany when he first encountered genetic algorithms and artificial intelligence. This moment sparked a shift in his approach to public health, leading him to apply simulation methods to complex biological and social systems, ultimately culminating in his co-founding of Epistemix. He discusses his pivotal role in creating agent-based models for predicting disease outbreaks like smallpox, avian flu, and most recently, COVID-19, illustrating the power of simulation in making better decisions in public health.

Beyond infectious disease, Burke reflects on the future of modeling, emphasizing its potential to not only tackle epidemics but also simulate human behavior, social contagions, and decision-making processes—showing how these tools are critical for addressing broader societal challenges. Throughout, Burke conveys his belief that interdisciplinary collaboration and data-driven insights are essential for solving today’s most pressing global issues.

This episode offers an in-depth, accessible exploration of how AI, computational social science, and agent-based modeling are shaping the future of public health and decision-making across industries.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction to the Flux Podcast

00:19 Meet Don Berg: From Infectious Disease Physician to Modeler

00:30 Early Career and Vaccine Development

01:47 HIV Research and Genetic Algorithms

04:29 The Epiphany: Modeling Viral Evolution

06:52 Transition to Johns Hopkins and Building Modeling Skills

08:16 9/11 and the Rise of Biodefense Modeling

12:42 The MIDAS Program and Agent-Based Modeling

20:23 Expanding Agent-Based Modeling Beyond Infectious Diseases

26:43 The Campfire Concept: Collaborative Modeling

30:12 Lessons from DA Henderson and Smallpox Eradication

32:49 Reflections on a Career in Modeling and Simulation

34:49 The Future of Modeling and Simulation

39:11 Current Projects and Historical Insights