From Chaos to Clarity with Doyne Farmer: Why Agent-Based Models Matter Now

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier sits down with innovation pioneer Mickey McManus to explore what it means to design for uncertainty in a world where complexity is the norm. Mickey draws on decades of experience from leading Maya Design and shaping decision-support tools for DARPA, to helping build the Future of Learning team at Autodesk to share insights on how human-centered design, systems thinking, and simulation can empower better decisions when the stakes are high and clarity is scarce.Together, John and Mickey unpack stories ranging from battlefield strategies in Iraq to fifth-grade prototyping workshops, illustrating how the right tools, environments, and mindsets can turn chaos into creativity. They dive into the importance of creating interaction physics in digital tools, the role of cognitive diversity in teams, and how simulation both technological and social builds resilience and foresight.Whether you're a designer, strategist, educator, or technologist, this episode offers a compelling lens on how to build for adaptability, foster innovation, and empower decision-makers in an age of flux.

In this episode of The Flux, we explore how modeling trust, belief, and social sentiment can unlock deeper insights in public health. Our guest, Philippe Giabbanelli, shares how agent-based models are evolving to capture not just behaviors, but the opinions and social dynamics that drive them like vaccine hesitancy or trust in institutions. We discuss the challenges of representing complex human psychology in simulations, the importance of sentiment in shaping real-world outcomes, and how these models are being used to support decision-making in uncertain, high-stakes environments. If you’ve ever wondered how data can reflect what people think, not just what they do, this conversation offers a compelling look into the future of predictive modeling.

In a world full of linear thinking, Dan Eichelsdoerfer is building a company grounded in complexity. In this episode, Dan joins The Flux to discuss why agent-based models are finally ready for prime time and how Macrocosm is creating tools to simulate economic and energy systems with more nuance, flexibility, and realism than ever before.Dan talks about the interdisciplinary “glory days” of modeling inside Macrocosm, where economists, physicists, and data scientists come together to break old paradigms and challenge assumptions. From applying agent-based models to simulate energy markets to envisioning what sustainable economics might actually look like, this is a masterclass in thinking differently to make better decisions.If you'd like to reach out to Dan and his team, email them at [email protected].

On this episode of The Flux, agent-based models (ABMs) have long lived on the fringes of mainstream economics but that’s changing. Doyne Farmer breaks down how advances in computing and data are fueling a new era of bottom-up modeling. He explains where ABMs outperform traditional models, why certain fields (like epidemiology and traffic systems) adopted them earlier, and how economics is finally catching up. We explore the structural and behavioral complexity that ABMs are uniquely suited to handle and what it will take to shift institutional thinking in policy and business.

In this episode of The Flux, we talk with Laura Sheppard, a research fellow at University College London’s Centre for Longitudinal Studies, about how data mining can uncover powerful insights from unexpected sources. Laura shares her work using the British Library’s Ethos dataset, a comprehensive record of UK doctoral theses - to explore gender inequality in higher education. We discuss the process of inferring gender from names, the challenges of working with messy or incomplete data, and how publicly available datasets can be creatively repurposed to answer socially important questions. Laura also touches on her work with The Trussell Trust, combining geographic and census data to map food bank accessibility in the UK.This conversation is a deep dive into the art and science of data mining, and how thoughtful assumptions, transparent methodology, and a bit of creativity can turn raw data into meaningful research.

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier sits down with Andrew Crooks at the Complex Social Systems Society Conference in Santa Fe. They dive into the world of agent-based modeling (ABM) - what it is, why it matters, and how it helps us simulate and better understand human behavior in complex systems. From simulating traffic jams to modeling social influence on vaccine uptake, Andrew shares how data, geography, and synthetic populations are revolutionizing our ability to forecast and inform decisions. They also explore the growing role of AI tools in democratizing modeling, the evolution of computational capabilities, and even ask: what if we had run a simulation before Brexit?Whether you're a policy maker, student, or just ABM-curious, this episode is full of insights on how to think more strategically about the future - no flux capacitor required.

What if we could predict the impact of a pandemic, a policy change, or even a war before it happens? Hamdi Kavak joins The Flux to discuss how agent-based modeling enables researchers to explore "what if" scenarios and simulate real-world behaviors at both small and massive scales. We dive into the applications of ABM in government-funded projects, the difficulties of modeling millions of agents, and how better communication of simulation insights could improve public trust in data-driven decision-making. If you're curious about the future of modeling and simulation, you won’t want to miss this conversation.

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, sits down with Paul Amoruso to explore his unexpected journey into the world of agent-based modeling (ABM). What started as a course recommendation turned into a passion for understanding complex systems and using data to drive better decisions.Paul shares insights from his academic path, the value of interdisciplinary collaboration, and why ABMs foster explainability in research. He also discusses how modeling could reshape fields like education and improve knowledge diffusion. Plus, in our What the Flux moment, Paul reflects on how we might have transformed traditional learning methods if we had embraced active learning sooner.Tune in for an engaging conversation on curiosity, computational social science, and the power of modeling to inform the future.

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier interviews Jim Malone at the Complex Social Systems Conference in Santa Fe. Jim, an experienced government acquisition professional, shares his fascinating journey from contracting to pursuing a PhD in Computational Social Science. He discusses the importance of understanding complexity in systems, particularly in government contracting and policy-making. Jim explores how modeling and data analysis can revolutionize our approach to measuring value in federal spending and its impact on various sectors. This thought-provoking conversation delves into the intersection of complexity science, policy, and the potential for creating more effective and value-driven government processes.

Welcome to The Flux! In this episode, host John Cordier, CEO at Epistemix, explores the intricacies of agent-based modeling and its impact on decision-making with Aaron Frank. Recorded live at the Complex Social System Society of America's conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Aaron shares his journey from traditional national security research to computational models and agent-based simulations. The discussion covers the evolution and application of agent-based modeling in national security, urban planning, public health, and beyond. Dive deep into how these models can create more informed decisions amidst uncertainty and their potential to transform various sectors. Join us for an enlightening conversation on modeling, data, and the future of complex systems analysis.00:00 Introduction to The Flux00:47 Meet Aaron Frank01:16 Journey into Agent-Based Modeling01:39 War Gaming and Computational Models04:30 Challenges in Gaming and Simulations08:32 Advancements in Agent-Based Modeling18:39 Agent-Based Modeling in Urban Design23:12 Policy Implications and Future Directions35:47 Advice for Aspiring Modelers