What’s Your Anchor? Dividends in an Uncertain Market

Markets feel uncertain. Headlines are driving sentiment. Oil prices are volatile, and cracks are forming in private credit, making high yield look more attractive than ever. But is that yield actually protecting you, or pulling you into risk?In this episode, Greg looks at three real-world examples to examine how income behaves under pressure and what that reveals about portfolio stability. We break down private credit and the hidden risks behind high yields and limited liquidity, evaluate Campbell’s ($CPB) and whether its elevated dividend is sustainable amid weakening fundamentals, and revisit Chevron ($CVX) as a case study in durable, growing income during oil market volatility.Along the way, we explore why rising yield can be a warning sign, how cash flow drives long-term returns, and what separates sustainable dividend growth from income traps.Because when volatility rises, the goal isn’t to predict the next move. It’s to stay anchored.Topics Covered[00:11] Introduction[03:31] Market Volatility & Investor Sentiment [04:47] Private Credit Risks & High Yield Illusion [11:04] Campbell’s ($CPB): High-Yield Warning Signs [17:17] Chevron ($CVX): Dividend Stability in Oil Volatility [26:38] Berkshire Hathaway: Reminder on the Importance of Cash Flow [29:11] The Dividend Anchor & Final Takeaways________ Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. Send us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ After a year of lagging the S&P 500, dividend investors are finally playing catch-up. Income is growing. Prices are rising. Total returns are improving.But success brings a new challenge: what happens when valuations rise, yields fall, and future returns get harder to find?In this episode, Greg explores the hidden downside of success in dividend growth investing. With dividend stocks outperforming early in 2026 and capital rotating out of growth and AI, he explains why rising prices create a new challenge: redeploying capital without sacrificing long-term returns. He revisits income growth vs. total return, explains why cash flow acts as the anchor in volatile markets, and walks through why sometimes the best move is to do nothing. He also contrasts chasing yield with sustainable compounding, including why shifting into Treasuries for higher income can miss the bigger picture.The second half of the episode moves into real portfolio examples—showing what “sell,” “hold,” and “buy” look like in practice:Why Emerson Electric ($EMR) no longer fits the modelWhat Clorox’s ($CLX) acquisition strategy could mean for dividend growthHow Hershey ($HSY) shows patience through commodity cyclesWhy Accenture ($ACN) represents a redeployment opportunityLong-term success isn’t about chasing what’s working today. It’s about discipline, letting income compound, and trusting that if cash flow grows, prices follow.Topics Covered: [00:11] Introduction [03:45] Income growth vs. total return investing [07:24] Why dividend income is the anchor [09:52] Valuation risk and redeployment challenges [10:22] Buffett, patience, and portfolio discipline [11:38] Treasuries vs. dividend stocks: yield vs. growth [13:03] Cash flow as the North Star [15:26] Emerson Electric ($EMR): selling a winner [20:03] Clorox ($CLX): acquisition risk and dividend sustainability [27:40] Hershey ($HSY): commodity cycles and patience [32:03] Accenture ($ACN): dividend growth opportunity [35:11] Redeploying capital in rising markets [36:07] Final takeaway: consistency and long-term compounding  Send us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. Markets get noisy. Numbers get confusing. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ If you could only look at one number to judge whether a dividend can keep growing for decades, what would it be?In this episode, we strip investing back to first principles. Greg talks about why investors get overwhelmed with data and how focusing on the wrong metrics can quietly lead you off track. Using a simple hot dog stand analogy, he explains why familiar numbers like return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) can distort reality, especially when leverage enters the picture.From there, he introduces return on invested capital (ROIC) and shows why it does a better job connecting business quality to long-term dividend growth. Later, Greg addresses what ROIC can’t tell you and why context always matters. Along the way, he walks through real-world examples, including Kraft Heinz ($KHC), Southern Company ($SO), Williams-Sonoma ($WSM), and Microsoft ($MSFT), to show how capital allocation decisions compound over time. [00:11] Introduction[02:50] Information overload and the danger of focusing on the wrong numbers[04:40] The hot dog stand: ROA vs. ROE and the role of leverage[08:15] Why both ROA and ROE can mislead dividend investors[09:35] Return on invested capital (ROIC) explained in plain English[13:30] ROIC, cost of capital, and long-term value creation[14:55] Case study: Kraft Heinz and why high yield can be a trap[18:30] Case study: Southern Company and when low returns still “work”[22:10] Case study: Williams-Sonoma and disciplined capital allocation[24:55] Case study: Microsoft and the power of long-term compounding[29:10] The limits of ROIC and why incremental returns matter[31:25] Final takeaway: one number, long time horizons, evolving businessesSend us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

📘Free Short Book: Dividend Growth, the Quiet Engine of Wealth If today’s market feels noisy, this short book lays out a calmer framework. Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth explains the same principles discussed in this episode—discipline, compounding, sustainable income growth, and staying focused when markets distract. It’s a quick read (about 90 minutes) and walks through how dividend growth works across full market cycles, including bull and bear markets. 👉 Download the free eBook: growmydollar.com/dividend-growth-book Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ Dividend growth investing can feel uncomfortable when a handful of growth stocks dominate headlines and performance. When value lags and momentum strategies seem unstoppable, it’s easy to wonder whether patience and discipline still make sense. To round out 2025, Greg steps back from the noise to revisit foundational principles of dividend growth investing and explain why they remain intact, even in today’s market. He walks through why distraction is one of the biggest risks investors face, how compounding quietly does the heavy lifting, and why tying income growth to long-term economic growth creates a durable framework that doesn’t depend on short-term cycles From the “Vitamin C” concept to classic compounding examples like the penny story and the Rule of 72, this episode reinforces how small, consistent decisions compound into meaningful income over time. Greg also revisits dividend growth targets, yield “sweet spots,” and the practical levers investors can pull to sustain income growth. The episode culminates in a real-world look at the model portfolio, which has been running since 2010. From all of us here at The Dividend Mailbox®, Happy Holidays!Topics covered: 00:00 – Introduction and why this is a good time to revisit first principles 01:10 – Market distractions, information overload, and staying focused 03:20 – Introducing the new book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth 04:20 – The “Vitamin C” concept and daily discipline 05:40 – The penny story and how compounding really works 09:40 – The Rule of 72 and the long-term cost of short-term decisions 11:10 – “The line”: GDP growth, earnings growth, and dividend growth 14:30 – Targeting 7% dividend income growth 16:30 – The 2–4% dividend yield sweet spot 17:55 – Income growth levers: reinvesting, reallocating, and dividend increases 20:40 – The Model PortfolSend us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.________Consumer staples look reliable with strong brands, steady cash flow, and good yields. But dividends can’t outrun revenue forever, and across this sector the growth engine has stalled.In this episode, Greg begins with a quick recap of how 2025 has unfolded so far, highlighting strong income growth for the model portfolio, a handful of growth names driving market performance, and value strategies continuing to lag. From that backdrop, he digs into the disconnect between the appearance of safety in consumer staples and the underlying fundamentals that truly support dividend growth. Using Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), General Mills ($GIS), Colgate ($CL), Procter & Gamble ($PG), and Church & Dwight ($CHD) as case studies, Greg shows how companies with high ROIC and defensive business models can still become no-growth traps. These companies were once consistent outperformers with impressive dividend histories, but the economy evolves and so have their growth profiles. Topics Covered:03:05 – Comparing dividend growth to the S&P 50005:43 – Investing styles cycle and chasing rarely works07:07 – Surface numbers can be misleading11:00 – Kimberly-Clark: attractive metrics masking zero growth16:42 – General Mills: high yield but barely growing18:36 – Colgate: excellent margins, slow dividend progression19:58 – Procter & Gamble: financial strength, but limited growth21:03 – Church & Dwight: a past outlier that doesn’t meet our targets23:57 – Kimberly-Clark’s planned Kenvue acquisition29:36 – The mosaic of evidence investors should pay attention to Have questions or want a second opinion on your dividend strategy?Email us anytime at [email protected] for a free portfolio review and ongoing dividend insights.Send us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.________Wall Street’s creativity knows no bounds, especially when it comes to selling safety or income. In this episode, Greg revisits Warren Buffett’s timeless wisdom to uncover who’s “swimming naked” in today’s market. Drawing on Rob Arnott and Edward McQuarrie’s recent CFA research on risk and investor psychology, he explains how both fear of loss and fear of missing out drive market behavior far more than models admit. Greg dissects several headline-grabbing products, from “high income” S&P 500 ETFs and 77% yielding Nvidia options funds to the Dual Directional Buffer ETF and the “Magnificent Seven Snowball,” revealing how they offer the illusion of safety or income while eroding long-term returns. He closes with a Buffett-style case study on Occidental Petroleum and Berkshire Hathaway’s recent deal, underscoring the power of simple, steady cash flow over engineered complexity.As Leonardo da Vinci said, “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication,” and it is also one of the surest ways to compound wealth. Topics Covered[00:00:41] – Who’s swimming naked? The illusion of risk-free returns [00:02:31] – Understanding risk and fear in markets: Rob Arnott’s research [00:06:22] – How fear of loss and FOMO distort risk premiums [00:09:19] – The rise of high-income ETFs: chasing yield in disguise [00:12:32] – The Nvidia ($NVDA) income strategy ETF: 77% yield, but at what cost? [00:16:09] – Dual Directional Buffer ETF: the illusion of protection [00:21:14] – The “Mag 7 Snowball” structured note: Wall Street’s creative packaging [00:25:47] – Why these structures guarantee Wall Street wins [00:26:45] – Buffett, Occidental ($OXY), and the value of consistent cash flow [00:32:20] – Simplicity, cash flow, and the sophistication of staying patient For more on dividend growth investing or to request a free portfolio review, email [email protected]. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.Send us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.________When a stock’s price is falling, its yield is sky-high, and there’s plenty of doubt, it looks like a classic value trap. Does it ever make sense for dividend growth investors to walk into that trap? Sometimes, what’s under the hood tells a very different story.In Episode 51, Greg revisits UPS ($UPS), a company we last covered years ago but is now back on our radar for entirely new reasons. Rising wages, Amazon contract changes, and global trade tariffs have cut the stock price in half since 2022, sending its dividend yield toward 8%. At first glance, it looks like the market is pricing it for a dividend cut.But step behind the headlines, and the story gets more compelling: UPS continues to post solid margins, generates strong cash flow, and has the scale and efficiency to remain a leader in global logistics. Even if a dividend cut occurs, investors may still come out ahead with sustainable yields and renewed dividend growth potential. Greg breaks down the scenarios, risks, and catalysts that make UPS a compelling story to consider.Topics Covered: [00:03:32] Why UPS looks like a high-yield “problem child” but may still be a dividend growth play[00:06:20] UPS’s history: growth in revenue, profits, and dividends since 1999[00:09:58] The “trifecta” of headwinds—union wage hikes, Amazon contract cuts, and tariffs[00:12:36] Comparing UPS vs. FedEx ($FDX), Amazon ($AMZN), USPS, and DHL in market share and profitability[00:19:57] How AI could improve delivery efficiency[00:21:12] Business metrics, profitability, debt profile, and why UPS’s financing signals investor confidence[00:25:27] The dividend dilemma: can UPS sustain its payout, or is a cut coming?[00:27:44] Three scenarios: steady dividend, improved valuation, or a cut that resets growth[00:31:47] Long-term catalysts: tariffs, Amazon shifts, and global trade recovery[00:33:37] What research firms (Morningstar, Value Line) are projecting for UPS[00:34:56] Final take: UPS as a value play that still pays you to waitSend us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.Dividend investing isn’t about settling for slow growth. To grow your income, you need to own growing companies, and the real wins come when you find them at a discount. The trick is seeing past the headlines and recognizing value even in businesses the market assumes are at risk of disruption. In this milestone 50th episode, Greg kicks things off with a Wall Street Journal investor quiz that highlights the timeless power of compounding. From there, the focus shifts to Accenture ($ACN), the world’s largest consulting firm. Despite short-term headwinds from government budget cuts and fears of AI disruption, Accenture’s strong balance sheet, growing dividend, and unique position in the consulting landscape make it a compelling candidate for long-term dividend growth investors. Greg breaks down the numbers, the risks, and the upside scenario if Accenture turns AI into an accelerant for its business model. Topics Covered:  03:13 – The century-long compounding lesson: Coca-Cola, Nvidia, Altria, and Apple 05:15 – Berkshire Hathaway’s glitch and 60 years of outperformance 07:26 – Introducing Accenture ($ACN): A long-held but renewed idea 08:48 – Why the stock has fallen from $400 to the mid-$200s 10:39 – AI disruption fears: risk or opportunity? 11:33 – Morningstar and Value Line’s perspectives on Accenture 14:34 – Historical dividend, earnings, and revenue track record 16:25 – Margins, balance sheet strength, and net debt position 19:03 – Return on invested capital: consistent discipline over decades 20:08 – Acquisition strategy: why Accenture has succeeded where others fail 21:59 – Conservative debt issuance and bond market confidence 24:56 – Profitability metrics: margins remain steady through cycles 26:14 – Accounts receivable and customer credit strength 27:41 – Why the federal contract risk looks like a buying opportunity 28:10 – The 10-year dividend model and forward growth scenarios 30:01 – Potential upside if AI becomes a growth driver 31:45 – Valuation: PE, price-to-sales, and free cash flow yield at decade lows 32:48 – Risks: client concentration, acquisitions, regulation, and AI disruption 34:04 – Final thoughts 📩  Want your dividend portfolio reviewed?Email a list of your holdings (no dollar amounts necessary) to [email protected]. We’ll rate it from 1 to 5 and include a few helpful bullet points to show how well you're aligneSend us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. In what may be the largest M&A deal of 2025 so far, Union Pacific ($UNP) has made a formal bid to merge with Norfolk Southern ($NSC). The proposed merger not only furthers the consolidation of the quasi-monopolistic railroad industry but also raises important questions about what it means for investors. Given the time we’ve spent highlighting Union Pacific as a model of dividend growth, we believe this surprise announcement warrants an early-stage analysis. In this Express Mail episode, Greg covers:[01:12] Merger Details Union Pacific makes a surprise $20B bid for Norfolk Southern—despite their past capital discipline.[03:54] Financial Analysis: Debt, EBIT, and Credit Ratings How the merger affects profitability, interest coverage, and debt loads.[10:29] Lessons from Canadian Pacific’s Kansas City Merger A similar deal that didn’t go quite as planned—and what it might signal for UNP.[15:36] Dividend Outlook: What Now? We break down whether the combined railroad can still deliver 7% dividend growth.[17:59] Final Thoughts Is Union Pacific now a total return story, not a dividend growth story? Why we’re holding through the uncertainty.  📩  Want your dividend portfolio reviewed?Email a list of your holdings (no dollar amounts necessary) to [email protected]’ll rate it from 1 to 5 and include a few helpful bullet points to show how well you're aligned with long-term dividend growth principles. Send us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. If you’ve ever struggled to stay disciplined in a world chasing growth or yield at all costs, this episode is for you. Whether you’re a seasoned dividend investor or new to the strategy, clarity, intention, and long-term thinking are essential to compounding your wealth over time. In this month’s episode, Greg reflects on a personal story about trying to sell his daughter’s old Honda CR-V. What begins with a frustrating lowball offer turns into an unexpected reminder of the core principles behind successful dividend investing. It’s a story that sets the stage for a broader discussion on the power of focus and the cost of distraction. Greg then connects this lesson to recent decisions within the portfolio:Why we sold Emerson Electric ($EMR), even after years of ownership and recent price gains.A quick update on Rémy Cointreau ($REMYY) and why the story has improved.Whether Stanley Black & Decker ($SWK) is a value play or a value trap.📩  Want your dividend portfolio reviewed? Email a list of your holdings (no dollar amounts necessary) to [email protected]. We’ll rate it from 1 to 5 and include a few helpful bullet points to show how well you're aligned with long-term dividend growth principles. Topics Covered:00:41 - Core theme of the episode: Clarity in investing, in mindset, and in strategy 02:01 - New offer: Get your dividend portfolio rated 1–5 by our team 03:17 - The $400 CR-V story and what it reveals about opportunity cost 11:32 - Applying the lesson: Compounding capital vs. chasing small gains 12:46 - Why clarity matters when dividend-based strategies lag 15:08 - Three paths: Pure growth, high yield, and dividend growth 16:08 - Why we sold Emerson: Weak dividend growth, poor capital efficiency 21:49 - Rémy update: Positive developments in the China tariff situation 23:23 - Stanley Black & Decker review: Great yield, but fading margins 30:21 - Dividend growth math: What would it take for Stanley to meet our hurdle? 34:32 - The truck analogy: Growth vs. yield vs. the dividend growth “sweet spot” 36:03 - Final thoughts: Clarity and discipline are non-negotiableSend us Fan MailDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewRESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X