2025 China-Global South Year in Review

In this special bonus episode, Eric speaks with Kaiser Kuo, host of the popular Sinica Podcast, about China's response to the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Many U.S. and European analysts have framed Maduro's downfall as a "setback" or even an "embarrassment" for Beijing, but while that may be true, Eric argues that it's also premature to make such declarations less than a week after Maduro's downfall. After all, U.S.-led military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya all started well but ended up being very costly failures for Washington. 📌 Topics covered include: China's reaction to Maduro's detention Why "China setback" claims may be premature Beijing's messaging vs. Chinese social media Why Venezuela ≠ Taiwan China's economic exposure in Venezuela The rise and fall of oil-backed loans What "all-weather partnership" really means Panama Canal risks for China Limits of U.S. hemispheric leverage China's Latin America knowledge gap Beijing's coup-response playbook Military lessons—and misreadings Instability as a threat to China's trade model What signals to watch next Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

One of the prevailing narratives that's emerged following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the detention of President Nicolás Maduro is that this is a major setback for China. Some analysts have called it a "strategic failure" on Beijing's part, while others have described it as "reality check" for China's role as a "global player." But China's ability to influence events in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America is extremely limited, so the assessment that what happened in Caracas was a blow to Beijing may also be overstated. Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean, joins Eric from Panama City to discuss whether Maduro's capture presents new risks or opportunities for China. 📌 Topics covered include: China's response to the U.S. detention of Nicolás Maduro Why Venezuela matters to China: oil, loans, and exposure Why Venezuela is not a Taiwan precedent The U.S. "Our Hemisphere" doctrine and spheres of influence China's special envoy visit to Caracas Short-term setbacks vs. long-term gains for China Electoral pushback against China in Latin America Panama tensions over ports and Chinese-linked infrastructure Why Latin America cannot quickly decouple from China Military force vs. economic leverage in U.S.–China rivalry Show Notes: The China-Global South Project: Q&A: Maduro's Fall Tests China's Influence in Washington's Backyard by Alonso Illueca The China-Global South Project: U.S. Strike in Venezuela Intensifies Chinese Media Debate Over Taiwan by Han Zhen Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth      

In this special year-end edition of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud look back on the top stories of 2025 and look ahead to the key trend to watch in 2026.  📌 Topics covered include: Simandou goes online (Guinea) and the iron ore geopolitics shift Zambia's Kafue River spill and the China narrative battle China's manufacturing push, overcapacity, and export pressures Soybeans and South America's growing leverage in U.S.–China trade China–India détente and what it changes (and doesn't) G20 turbulence around South Africa and global governance fractures 2026 outlook: Southeast Asia rivalry, Zimbabwe lithium value-add, Senegal hidden debt Show Notes: The Financial Times: The American company seeking to counter China in Africa by David Pilling and Leslie Hook Foreign Policy: China's Appetite for Rosewood Is Causing Chaos in Africa by Joshua Eisenman and Caroline Costello Environmental Investigation Agency: New Report Finds That Home Depot Sold Illegally Sourced Tropical Wood for Years Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship is the defining trend of this era, upending global politics, economics, and security, especially across the Global South. Countries that have worked hard from having to pick sides in this new competition, may longer have that luxury as this rivalry intensifies. Jane Perlez, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and a former longtime China correspondent for The New York Times, has been covering this story since the 1980s. Now, together with acclaimed Harvard University China scholar Rana Mitter, she's launched season 3 of her award-winning podcast Face Off: The U.S. vs. China, where they explore the key trends reshaping ties between these two powers. Jane joins Eric from Sydney to discuss the forces driving this rivalry: leadership personality, domestic pressure, technological competition, and the tightening link between geopolitics and economic strategy. 📌 Key topics explored: How China defines and uses foreign aid Aid vs development finance in China's system The role of Chinese development banks Myths around "free" Western and Chinese aid Aid as diplomatic influence China's engagement with regional blocs (AU, ASEAN) What China's aid strategy means for the West Show Notes: Listen to season 2 of Face Off: The U.S. vs. China on Spotify Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in Spanish and French: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

Soon after USAID was closed in February, speculation circulated that China would move quickly to fill the void left by the United States. That did not happen. While the Chinese did step in to provide modest additional funding for a handful of programs, like demining initiatives in Cambodia and support for the Africa CDC in Addis Ababa, overall, there's been no significant change in China's foreign aid programs. That did not surprise Alicia Chen, a PhD candidate at Stanford University, who noted in a recent Foreign Affairs article that Beijing is very tactical with where and how it distributes overseas development assistance. Alicia joins Eric to discuss Beijing's foreign aid strategy and how it differs from other major donors. 📌 Key topics in this episode: How China defines foreign aid Aid versus development finance in China Why China's aid budget is relatively small The role of Chinese development banks Myths about "free" Western and Chinese aid Aid as a tool of diplomatic influence China's focus on regional organizations African Union and ASEAN case studies Donkey hide trade and AU diplomacy What China's aid strategy means for the West JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden unpack a major question facing middle powers everywhere: What happens when the global security architecture you relied on for decades no longer exists? Fresh from meetings at Australian National University and the Australasian Aid Conference, Eric shares conversations with scholars, diplomats, and policymakers in Canberra who are wrestling with a new geopolitical reality. Topics include: Eric and Cobus also break down China's push to promote its Global Security Initiative at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, the limitations of the UN system, and why both Western and Chinese security narratives fail to address Africa's real on-the-ground security challenges. 📌 Key topics in this episode: • The U.S.–China rivalry and why middle powers feel trapped • Australia's dilemma: China is the biggest customer AND biggest security concern • Why the Pacific Islands have become a frontline of strategic contestation • Joint patrols in the South China Sea and shifting regional alliances • Whether the Five Eyes model still works in a world where U.S. power is unpredictable • How Japan, South Korea, and Canada are rethinking security and trade • Why "rules-based order" no longer resonates across the Global South • China's Global Security Initiative (GSI) and what it actually means for Africa • Why many countries fear mass migration more than great-power conflict • Why middle powers still lack a clear, forward-looking vision JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China has funded, designed, and built more than 200 government buildings across Africa, including the headquarters of the African Union and Ecowas, foreign ministry annexes in Ghana and Kenya, and at least 15 national parliaments. Eric and Cobus speak with Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of the new book China and African Parliaments. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in Lesotho, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, Batsani-Ncube explains how China's parliamentary construction boom works, why African governments welcome it, and what he calls "subtle power"—a form of elite-level influence that sits between soft and sharp power. 📌 Key topics in this episode: Why China builds African parliamentary buildings — and why African governments accept them "Subtle power" vs. soft power vs. sharp power The politics behind construction, design, and land selection How these buildings shape legislative capacity and political identity Case studies: Lesotho, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Congo-Brazzaville Does this compromise sovereignty? Or strengthen parliaments? Are these buildings really vectors for Chinese espionage? 📘 Purchase China and African Parliaments by Innocent Batsani-Ncube on Amazon JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China's rapid ascent from rural poverty to industrial superpower reshaped the global economy and established a new center of gravity for manufacturing. Today, Chinese factories anchor much of the world's supply chains, producing goods at a speed and scale that few countries can match. Behind this transformation is a system that author Dan Wang describes in his new book "Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future" as the "engineering state," a model defined by massive investments in infrastructure, strategic planning, and so-called "process knowledge" gleaned from the country's rapid industrial development. Now, more and more, the Chinese government touts this development model as an example for other countries in the Global South to emulate. Dan joins Eric to discuss whether the so-called "engineering state" is replicable elsewhere or if it's a uniquely Chinese phenomenon. CHAPTERS: • Setting the Stage – China's rise from rural poverty to industrial superpower • The Engineering State – How China builds, plans, and organizes at a massive scale • Roots of the Model – East Asian development traditions and Soviet legacies • Infrastructure as Strategy – High-speed rail, bridges, airports, and the costs behind them • Industrial Capacity – Manufacturing clusters, supply chains, and process knowledge • The Speed Advantage – Why Chinese firms move faster than global competitors • Tech Transfer Debates – Joint ventures, old IP, and myths about forced transfers • Subsidies and Support – What Chinese industrial subsidies do—and what they don't • Exporting the Model – Limits of replication in Africa, Asia, and the Global South • The China Price – How scale, logistics, and workforce learning lock in dominance • Internal Tensions – Debt, underused infrastructure, and diminishing returns • Shifting Priorities – Xi's push away from consumer tech and toward strategic industries • Global Backlash – Overcapacity, trade pushback, and rising protectionism • Future Crossroads – Why China's development engine is losing momentum • Lessons for the Global South – What countries can adapt—and what they must avoid JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China is breaking the rules of development. Typically, as countries progress up the value chain, they transition from agriculture to light industry, then to heavy industry, and ultimately to high-technology and services. And as they move up the value chain, this creates opportunities for less-developed countries to advance. But China's not doing that. Chinese manufacturers are holding on to their immense productive capacity, enabling them to produce both low-tech sneakers and high-tech semiconductors at a scale and cost that are unrivaled. Now, as developing countries around the world seek to move up the value chain, they will have to compete head-on against the dreaded "China Price." James Kynge, who covered China for nearly 30 years at the Financial Times, delved into this challenge in a fascinating audiobook that came out earlier this year, "Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate." James joins Eric from London to explain how China's ability to produce a $6 toaster exemplifies the country's enormous manufacturing advantage that will be very difficult, if not impossible, for other countries to match. CHAPTERS: • Introduction – The $6 toaster and the global value chain crisis • The Flying Geese Model – How automation broke development's old path • China's Dual Reality – A continent-sized economy of billionaires and low-wage labor • Industrial Clusters – The unbeatable advantage of Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta • The Global South's Dilemma – Competing against the "China price" • Automation and Inequality – Why manufacturing isn't moving offshore • The $1 Trillion Surplus – Trade backlash and global tensions • Searching for Solutions – Industrial policy and self-strengthening in the Global South • Winners and Losers – Cheap exports, consumer gains, and producer pain • Political Risk – Xi Jinping's lesson from Western deindustrialization • The Humanoid Robot Moment – From $6 toasters to $6,000 robots • China's Auto Revolution – BYD and the new wave of affordable EVs • The Double-Edged Future – Opportunity and disruption in China's rise SHOW NOTES: Financial Times: Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate by James Kynge Financial Times: China's plan to reshape world trade on its own terms by James Kynge and Keith Fray JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

As China's economic influence expands, so does its ambition to shape the very system that once constrained it. In this episode of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric speaks with Greg Chin and Kevin Gallagher from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center about their new book that details China's transformation from a "rules taker" within the Bretton Woods system to a "rules maker" who's now reshaping the international development finance architecture. Greg and Kevin explore the country's growing role in the IMF and World Bank, its creation of new institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB), and what this means for developing nations navigating between Western and Chinese-led finance. CHAPTERS: • Introduction – A brief calm in U.S.–China tensions • Rule Taker → Rule Maker – China's rise inside global finance • Building Alternatives – Creating the AIIB and NDB • Two-Way Countervailing Power – Leveraging inside–outside influence • Green Finance and "Next Practices" – Raising the bar on development norms • Debt and Diplomacy – How China handles restructuring • Institutional Layering – Shaping without dismantling • Washington's Dilemma – Anxiety over losing control • The Global South's New Agency – More options, more leverage • A New Multilateral Moment – Uncertain future for global governance SHOW NOTES: 📚 Read the book (free download) JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth