Do Democrats understand why they won?

Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias break down the 2026 midterms. They go over JD Vance blaming the Iran war (and Israel) for the blue wave but not tariffs, California’s failed billionaire tax, and why both parties struggle to lower prices. They also get into whether “affordability” is just inflation by another name, why Democrats might be tempted by price controls, and which issues are going to be most salient come 2028. Plus, a peer review on how often America’s wealthiest families continue to stay rich.(0:00) Analyzing the 2026 midterms(6:32) Tariffs vs. the Iran war(15:01) “Affordability” is just inflation(25:13) Democrats care more about climate than prices(34:23) Are the populists anti-democratic?(44:20) What should a billionaire tax pay for?(53:45) What the midterms mean for 2028(1:03:40) Peer Review: Can America’s economic elite stay elite?The Argument podcast is taking questions for an upcoming mailbag episode! Please email your questions to [email protected]. Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

This week, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias review “You Can See Everything,” Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s new film following Elizabeth Holmes as she maintains that she did nothing wrong. In this spoiler-filled episode, they get into how the Theranos fraud actually worked, why Holmes was convicted of defrauding investors but not patients, and why her refusal to admit fault makes her so hard to sympathize with. They also debate whether dramatizations like “The Dropout” and “The Social Network” are lying to audiences, if it’s ever okay to lie, and whether Nathan Fielder even qualifies as a documentarian. Plus, a Peer Review on why AI models tell left-wing voters in Japan to back the Communist Party.(0:00) Are you being real right now?(3:07) The Theranos pitch(13:47) Nathan Fielder isn’t a documentarian(15:17) Why Holmes and Sunny Balwani got different verdicts(18:07) Can Elizabeth Holmes win us over?(27:10) Amanda Seyfried and “The Dropout”(29:58) Matt still hates “The Social Network”(33:15) Is it ever OK to lie?(38:38) Can a documentary tell the truth?(45:33) The strange form of “You Can See Everything”(50:48) Peer Review: Why AI tells Japanese leftists to vote CommunistSupport the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

For this month’s book club, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias read Hannah Arendt’s “The Human Condition,” the 1958 classic that asks what gives life meaning once automation frees us from labor. They get into why Arendt thought material abundance was a distraction from what makes us truly human, how her experience as a Jewish refugee shaped her views of public life, and whether it’s really that important to act in the public arena.(0:00) How to be human in the AI age(4:08) Work vs. labor(8:59) Arendt’s life as a stateless refugee(15:02) What is Arendt actually arguing?(18:59) Is prosperity overrated?(22:48) Why Arendt hates social science(52:14) Art is good because it’s useless(1:03:19) Are some books better than others?(1:08:15) The “to be sure” problem(1:14:23) Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State(1:21:07) What to take from Arendt (and what to reject)Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Why are so many environmentalists against permitting reform? Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias explain the bipartisan permitting reform bill and why many environmental groups oppose it. Known as the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), the bill is seen as a potential win for the abundance movement because it speeds up permitting for energy infrastructure. But progressive critics worry it will lead to even more fossil fuel infrastructure.Plus, a peer review on why people want fewer kids and what it means for the pro-natalist movement.Our next Book Club episode will discuss Hannah Arendt's "The Human Condition," so grab a copy now if you want to read along!(0:00) Permitting reform explained: the bipartisan bill(5:29) What NEPA actually does(11:58) How NIMBYs abuse environmental protections(14:02) What Democrats don’t like about BAAJA(20:27) Why environmentalists should like this bill(31:06) Matt’s problem with green groups (34:06) Why geothermal is stuck on federal land(40:23) Is this bill good for data centers?(47:48) Mark Carney’s carbon pricing in Canada(49:00) Has the abundance movement failed?(55:03) Can permitting reform fight climate change?(1:04:55) Peer review: Everyone’s having fewer kidsSupport the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias debate which historical figures deserve to be canceled and which shouldn’t have been. With the Trump administration pushing to restore statues of figures removed during the “Great Wokening,” they ask what a statue, a holiday, or a name on a school is actually for. Jerusalem lays out her test: why we honor someone and whether their cruelty is the main thing they’re remembered for. Matt argues the bigger problem is that we undercommemorate people, and that we should want more statues, not fewer.Plus, a peer review on whether machine learning can predict who will be shot, and how much power the government should have to use that data.(0:00) Who deserves to be canceled?(1:30) Why Matt wants more statues, not fewer(3:43) Jerusalem’s test for canceling a historical figure(9:04) Should we cancel Columbus Day?(11:24) The Cesar Chavez cancellation(19:46) Robert E. Lee and the myth of the Lost Cause(28:08) Cancel Paul Ehrlich of The Population Bomb(39:07) Uncanceling Flannery O’Connor(48:35) Uncanceling Thomas Jefferson(59:27) Peer Review: Can AI predict who will be shot?Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

ChinaTalk's Jordan Schneider joins Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias to compare how the U.S. and China are approaching artificial intelligence. They dive into the Trump-Xi summit, whether AI will change how politicians govern, and the limits of what Chinese AI models are allowed to say. They also discuss the gap in public opinion: why do so many people in China have positive expectations for AI while Americans are dooming?Plus, a peer review on how childhood neighbors shape the careers we choose.(0:00) AI, China, and the Trump-Xi summit(3:50) Will AI replace politicians?(8:26) Grok, DeepSeek, and who controls AI(12:09) Can AI save Congress?(22:25) Asking DeepSeek about Chinese Democracy(26:45) Does AI break the development ladder?(31:13) Why China is more optimistic about AI than America(54:37) Corruption in China vs. the U.S.(1:06:17) Why the White House wants to rebrand AI as "superintelligence"(1:10:50) Peer Review: Do childhood neighbors shape your career?Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

How can Europe's liberals stop the far-right? Matt Yglesias and Jerusalem Demsas debate the far right's rise in Germany, France, and beyond, and whether Europe's mainstream parties mishandled immigration and opened the door for the AfD and Marine Le Pen. They get into what Sweden and Denmark got right on integration, why deportations and asylum deterrence are so hard, whether liberals should ever govern with the far right, and why Europe's strange aversion to air conditioning is a gift to populists.Plus a peer review on whether having more kids pushes mothers into remote work.(00:00) Are liberals losing Europe?(6:24) Magna Carta, freedom of movement, and immigration(14:05) Dril tweets and the sane-washing dilemma(20:29) Should liberals give into populist demands?(28:14) Joe Biden, deportations, and asylum(31:47) Libya, the Mediterranean, and deterrence(41:02) What Sweden and Denmark got right(48:20) France, the UK, and air conditioning(52:02) Peer Review: moms and remote workSupport the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias debate whether artificial intelligence poses an existential risk to human civilization, or if that idea is just a dangerous distraction from real, near-term risks. Matt's case for doom is that we'll cede more power and authority to AI agents as they recursively self-improve, leaving humans more vulnerable in the end. Jerusalem pushes back on this and argues that obsessing over extinction scenarios makes it harder to regulate biological weapons, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and the economic disruptions already underway.Plus a peer review of a new paper on why meetings can actually be good for you and your company.(00:00) Is advanced AI going to kill us all?(04:09) Jerusalem pushes back on AI doom(07:26) The Claude Code auto-mode problem(11:02) Bioweapons and AI's real near-term risks(15:41) Why extinction risk still matters politically(19:21) Why Matt is scared of a flawless AI(33:13) Reasons AI won't take over(52:08) The case for an AI pause(58:54) Peer review: why meetings are actually good for youSupport the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

For this month’s book club, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias read Friedrich von Hayek’s “The Road to Serfdom,” the 1944 book that argued central planning inevitably leads to totalitarianism and became one of the most cited books in American and British politics. Jerusalem and Matt get into whether Hayek’s central thesis actually explains Nazi Germany, the similarities between socialism and fascism, and why authoritarian regimes are always run by scumbags instead of nice-guy technocrats.(00:00) Are we on the road to serfdom?(02:25) Hayek's real argument: central planning leads to dictatorship(05:26) Britain puts Hayek's theory to the test(08:20) What's the line between socialism and the welfare state?(14:49) Why this 80-year-old debate keeps coming back(20:45) The viral tweet about life before Uber(31:49) What does "economic freedom" actually mean?(48:22) Decentralizing power: philanthropy, federalism, and price controls(56:45) When regulation goes too far(01:15:28) Why the worst people always end up on topSupport the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

As the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks approaches, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias look back at the day itself, the warning signs that preceded it, and the 25 years of politics that followed. They trace how the response reshaped foreign policy, launched the global War on Terror, and set the Republican Party on a path that eventually led to Donald Trump and the rise of MAGA. They also get into the intelligence failures before the hijackings, the Patriot Act, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and how the Republicans and Democrats have flipped on issues like security and surveillance. Plus a peer review on how private tutoring centers like Kumon affect student performance.(00:00) The difference between George W. Bush and Donald Trump(03:53) The World Trade Center bombing(07:02) Why the towers didn't collapse right away(11:58) The many red flags(15:55) Bush, Saddam, and the Gulf War(24:40) How today's GOP would have responded differently(29:05) The hate crime surge, and who it actually hit(33:06) Neocons, hawkish Democrats, and the case for war(45:55) Why right liberalism is in retreat(57:06) Somalia, Black Hawk Down, and intervention fatigue(01:09:04) Explaining 9/11 to people who don't remember it(01:13:07) If a Democrat was president on 9/11(01:22:52) Peer review: How much do private tutors really help?Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.