Ukraine conflict: thoughts on Russian gas and the wider impact of sanctions

Resilienza dell'Unione Europea, inaspettato ottimismo, riapertura della Cina e il ruolo della guerra nelle relazioni internazionali. Questi alcuni dei punti chiave che sono emersi al World Economic Forum 2023 a Davos.Ascolta l'intervento di Davide Serra (Founder e CEO, Algebris Investments)

Some of the key takeaways from the World Economic Forum 2023 in Davos: The resilience of the European Union, unexpected optimism, China's reopening, hawkish central banks and the role of war in international relations. Listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments)

Bond and equity markets hit an air pocket in September 2022 as central bankers got serious about raising interest rates to tackle inflation. Both markets are now down around 20% YTD, with the S&P 500 down 25%. So: what is the global situation now? Listen in to Simon Peters (Investments Strategist) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development)

Until the end of 2021, macroeconomic volatility seemed a thing of the past. Secular stagnation would keep inflation low forever, paving the way for indefinite financial repression. Fiscal discipline was abandoned en masse, as central banks would buy bonds at any price. Unfunded fiscal expansions became the norm, leading to large deficits that didn’t revert.The developed world accumulated imbalances, and markets did not react. Currency and interest rates instability was a concern of just a few underdeveloped countries.2022 came as a sudden wake-up call. Global inflation jumped from 2% last year to 10% today, burning years of easy money in the bat of an eyelid. Developed markets had to re-learn how to cope with market discipline. Central banks had to re-learn how to be inflation watchdogs. Loose policies are now punished with higher rates and currency crashes. Bond vigilantes are back, and policy-makers need to get used to it once again.

When fortunes are lost, fortunes can be made. Timing can make all the difference between the two. June marked an important month in the ongoing bear market, as by month-end many “buy boxes” had been ticked, at least in credit markets. Russia reduced gas flows, inflation increased further, and central banks were not budging on growth. All that could go wrong has gone wrong, and fear has taken over markets. When the overriding emotion is panic, it is important to understand that there will also be opportunities. Listen in to Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research) discuss the key market risks for the next 12 months and what opportunities are arising for investors.

The longer the party, the worse the hangover. The old adage certainly applies to 2022. The Fed’s balance sheet is 3x larger than it was in 2019, and easy money turned into all-time high household wealth. Couple that with the largest fiscal push since WWII and the worst supply shock since 1973, and something has to give. That something is inflation, and with it, markets. Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research) discuss the key market risks for the next 12 months and what opportunities are arising for investors.

Wars are symptoms of broader trends. WWI marked the end of the globalization started with the industrial revolution, and WWII the beginning of a new era of global integration. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is no exception. Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) and Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) discuss what the longer-term developments might be, how concerned should investors be about inflation and recession and how they can approach portfolio construction.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine raises important questions about whether or not financial and economic sanctions can work as intended. The scenario around Europe's ability to significantly reduce or remove its reliance on Russian gas should also be considered. Silvia Merler (Head of ESG and Policy Research) and Gabriele Foà (Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) talk to Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) about the evolving situation in the latest episode of The Alpha Horizon

Recent developments on the geopolitical front have created increased uncertainty and volatility. Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development, and Simon Peters, Investment Strategist, discuss how the environment for risk assets has changed and what investors and asset allocators are doing.

Inflation is creating significant volatility and uncertainty. Simon Peters (Investment Strategist) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) discuss what investors should be aware of in the current environment and how best to avoid the negative effects of inflation on investors’ portfolios.