Nir & Rupar: Paul Waldman on Trump's Iran debacle

The latest Nir & Rupar features Aaron and special guest Paul Waldman going deep on how Trump bungled his way into a way of choice that’s becoming more and more of a political albatross as it becomes clear he has no idea what he’s doing.Waldman — who does fantastic work as a Public Notice contributor, including a piece from last month that has already aged extremely well about Trump’s failure to sell the public on his Iran misadventure — explains Trump’s failures in the context of George W. Bush’s propaganda efforts surrounding the Iraq War (which look sophisticated by comparison). We also discussed what Waldman thinks about how low Trump’s approval numbers could go this year, the political media landscape in light of Pete Hegseth’s disconcerting comments about CNN’s ownership situation, Democratic strategy heading into the midterms, and much more.I hope you enjoy the conversation, and if you’d like to ask us questions live during next Friday’s Nir & Rupar — we took a number of them this week — please become a paid subscriber. Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice try to wrap their heads around Donald Trump’s berserk war on Iran.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:David and Aaron discuss:* Why it’s important to say aloud that Trump’s actions and motives are insane — and resist the urge to place him in any “normal” political boxes.* How the latest grim economic news can only further undermine the already low support for Trump’s war.* How one of the vilest MAGA warriors is holding Trump back from endorsing his more electable opponent in the Texas Senate race.And much more! Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A!Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.If you missed Friday’s livestream, you can watch it by clicking above! Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and guest-host Joe Sudbay, the host of “State of The States” on SiriusXM Progress, count off the many ways in which Donald Trump is crashing — and crashing out.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:David and Joe discuss:* Why Trump’s State of the Union address got so little traction, despite a desperate GOP attempt to make it go “viral.”* How Trump’s polls on his signature issue of immigration keep getting worse — and what Democrats must do to reverse public perceptions that they’re weak.* A pair of primaries next week in Texas that vividly showcase the GOP’s bitter divide between MAGA and whatever remains of the establishment.And much more!Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.If you missed Friday’s livestream, you can watch it by clicking above! Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice explain why, whatever BS the Trump administration may be spewing now about Minnesota, ICE is on the run.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:David and Aaron discuss:* Why Kristi Noem may be the first Cabinet secretary to get the axe in Trump 2.0* Why congressional Democrats have a stronger hand heading into the DHS shutdown* How a recent election shows just how much anger the Democratic base feels about ICE’s terror campaignAnd much more! Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A!Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.If you missed Friday’s livestream, you can watch it by clicking above! Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice examine why some top Republicans are now embracing Trump’s most disgusting conspiracy theories after years of stiff-arming him.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:David and Aaron discuss:* Why House Speaker Mike Johnson recently echoed Trump’s stolen election claims— even as some other Republicans hammered Trump for his racist social media post about the Obamas.* Why Democrats have the upper hand in negotiations over ICE funding, and it’s not just because of the polling.* Why Republicans are freaking out after a stunning special election upset in Texas last weekend — and why they’re right to do so.And much more! We also took several questions from viewers, which we love to do. Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A!Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.If you missed Friday’s livestream, you can watch it by clicking above! Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice talk about the fallout from ICE’s killing of Alex Pretti, both in Minnesota and nationwide.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:David and Aaron discuss:* Why any talk of a “drawdown” in the Twin Cities or a “softening” in Donald Trump’s approach is sheer nonsense — as anyone who lives in the area, like Aaron, can tell you* How Trump refuses to react like a normal politician in the face of horrific polling numbers — but why the media still (wrongly) expects him to* Why a thunderous special election victory in St. Paul just days after Pretti’s death shows voters are willing to defy the risks to send a messageAnd much more!If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above.Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A! Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, Aaron Rupar of Public Notice tells David Nir of The Downballot what life is like in Minneapolis, a city besieged by its own federal government.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:Aaron explains:* All the ways, big and small, in which ICE’s terror campaign is generating permanent anxiety for everyone who lives in Minneapolis and the entire Twin Cities region.* How Minnesotans are fighting back in spite of the grave risks, bird-dogging ICE thugs and protecting vulnerable residents.* How Donald Trump’s polling on immigration has tanked, and why Democrats should not be afraid to take him on over the issue.And much more.If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above.Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A. Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

If you missed my live mailbag on Substack Live today, you can check it out above. I started it off by talking about what life is like in Minneapolis right now and my workflow covering right-wing media, then took an array of questions from viewers.This was the first time I’ve done something like this, and the response was overwhelmingly positive — over 1,600 people tuned in! I’ll do another one soon, and if you’d like to partake in asking me questions, please become a paid subscriber to the newsletter.David Nir and I will be back with our first 2026 episode of Nir & Rupar next Friday. Thanks for supporting the show! Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

On the year’s final episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice take stock of 2025’s bizarre dual nature, which saw Donald Trump consolidate power at the same time as the GOP got shellacked at the ballot box.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:David and Aaron discuss:* How Trump’s prime-time rant-fest denying the affordability crisis is only likely to hurt him with voters, especially those who aren’t as tuned into politics.* Why America’s bifurcated economy, with the rich doing very well and everyone else struggling, makes a GOP course correction even less likely.* How the incredible streak of Democratic victories and overperformances in elections shows just how hard it is for Trump to subvert democracy, no matter how much he’d like to.And much more!If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above.Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A!This was our last episode of the year. We’re extremely grateful to all of our viewers for tuning in and asking great questions each week, and we look forward to talking with you again in 2026. Happy holidays! Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice talk about the many warning signs about Donald Trump’s health — and why the media isn’t pressing harder.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:David and Aaron discuss:* Why everyone should be alarmed about Trump’s decline — no armchair diagnosis needed.* Why reporters, who were so eager to dissect Joe Biden’s health, have been less aggressive toward Trump, and why that needs to change.* How non-stop setbacks in special elections are freaking out Republicans, and maybe even causing them to slow their roll on redistricting.And much more!If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above.Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A! Get full access to Public Notice at www.publicnotice.co/subscribe