Countering Russia's Shadow Fleet and the Limits of Sanctions

How has Russia managed to keep its oil exports flowing despite sanctions and what can governments do to more effectively disrupt the shadow fleet? As Russia adapts its energy exports to withstand sanctions pressure, a parallel maritime system has emerged to keep oil flowing across global markets. In this episode of the Suspicious Transaction Report, CFS Research Fellow Gonzalo Saiz is joined by Michelle Wiese Bockmann, Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst at Windward, and Claire Grunewald, Co-Founder of Clarity Compliance Consulting and a former Sanctions Compliance Officer at OFAC, to examine how Russia's shadow fleet emerged, the tactics it uses to evade sanctions and continue moving oil despite international restrictions, and what governments can do to disrupt its operations as Russia's war in Ukraine enters its fifth year.

Following Russia's full-scale invasion, Western governments issued a slew of sanctions against oligarchs. But to what end? What's been achieved, and what happens next? Over the past decade, the UK has grappled with its reputation as 'Londongrad': a home for oligarchs – most often from Russia – to park and enjoy their money. Successive governments resisted calls for action against these individuals, whether the calls came from civil society, opposition MPs or European ambassadors in London. Even following the Salisbury poisonings in 2018, the oligarch community remained untouched. That all changed in February 2022 when the UK government's resistance to sanctioning oligarchs crumbled in the face of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Accommodating Russians and their money in London become indefensible. In this latest episode of the STR podcast, CFS Director Tom Keatinge is joined by expert oligarch watchers Michael O'Kane, a partner at Peters & Peters, and Natalia Kubesch, Legal Director at REDRESS. Four years since the Johnson/Truss government finally pulled the trigger on oligarch sanctions, one basic question remains unresolved: what is actually meant to happen to these sanctioned individuals — and, perhaps more importantly, to their frozen assets?

Marking four years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we examine how EU sanctions have evolved, expanded and intensified enforcement. As we mark the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this episode explores how EU sanctions on Russia have evolved from an emergency political response into the most extensive and technically sophisticated sanctions regime in the EU's history. Kinga Redłowska, Head of CFS at RUSI Europe, speaks with Brice De Schietere, Head of the Sanctions Division at the European External Action Service (EEAS), about how EU sanctions are designed, negotiated and implemented. The conversation examines the objectives behind restrictive measures, including targeting Russia's energy revenues, restricting access to critical technologies, countering sanctions circumvention and addressing the Russian shadow fleet. They also discuss enforcement challenges, coordination with G7 partners and the UK, the role of third countries and the growing use of autonomous EU sanctions regimes. Four years on, EU sanctions are no longer merely about signalling unity. They are about constraining Russia's war effort, increasing economic pressure and shaping Europe's broader security toolkit. As the war continues, the question is not whether the EU has sanctions instruments at its disposal, but how effectively it uses them in support of Ukraine's peace and security.

As the UK brings forward new electoral legislation, what should the government do about crypto donations, and does it really understand the risks? Discussion about cryptocurrencies is often polarised. Nowhere is this more so the case than in the ongoing discussion about the inclusion – or not – of cryptocurrency for donations to political parties in the UK. In this latest episode of the STR podcast, host Tom Keatinge is joined by Eliza Lockhart, a Research Fellow in our CFS team leading our work on Cryptocurrencies in UK Politics which examines the risk of opaque, foreign or malign influence entering UK politics via cryptocurrency donations; and James Gillespie, a CFS Associate Fellow, formerly of HM Treasury, to reflect on where the real threats from crypto to electoral integrity lie, and what to do about them.

Financing is a critical yet overlooked element of Russian sabotage in Europe, shaping how operations unfold and where they can be disrupted.  In this latest STR episode, host Kinga Redłowska is joined by CFS Director Tom Keatinge and CFS Senior Associate Fellow Matthew Redhead to review the team's recent report on how Russian sabotage campaigns are funded, and why this important angle has been overlooked by authorities.   From low-cost 'disposal agents' to social media recruitment and crypto transfers, the discussion exposes both the vulnerabilities sabotage networks rely on and the leverage points where disruption is possible. Understanding the money trail, they argue, is essential to staying one step ahead. 

Over two billion pounds from the sale of Chelsea FC languishes frozen in a UK bank account. Why is that, and what happens next? Nick Purewal, news and sports journalist, and author of 'Sanctioned: The Inside Story of the Sale of Chelsea FC' joins host Tom Keatinge to explore the sanctioning of Roman Abramovich by the UK following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the consequences for one of England's biggest football clubs and two decades of investment in south west London. Differences in opinion - and legal drafting - mean that despite rising rhetoric from the UK government, the net proceeds of the sale remain frozen and in limbo in a UK bank account.

In a new book, author Anton Moiseienko argues that designing the right incentives will determine the future success of financial crime fighting. In this latest episode of the STR podcast, host Tom Keatinge is joined by former CFS colleague Anton Moiseienko, who is now a Senior Lecturer and Research Director at the Australian National University Law School in Canberra. They discuss Anton's new book, 'Doing Business with Criminals: Between Exclusion and Surveillance'. It is a book that provides an important assessment of the history of financial crime fighting and the policies and laws that govern our actions today; and questions whether we have created the right incentives to ensure all involved are pulling in the same direction, presenting a compelling argument of how the system needs to change.

Jeffrey Robinson writer, storyteller, and passionate believer joins host Tom Keatinge to think the unthinkable and challenge the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) status quo. After all these years of effort to combat economic crime, are we so convinced that our approach is the right one that we are unwilling to challenge the status quo? Acknowledging that we are on the wrong path is hard to do, particularly when there are so many vested interests at play. As Obi Wan Kenobi might have said, the force of the Echo Chamber is strong.

Gonzalo Saiz and Galen Lamphere-Englund speak with host Tom Keatinge about how online gaming might be exploited by extremist and terrorist actors. In this latest episode of the STR podcast, host Tom Keatinge caught up with CFS Research Fellow Gonzalo Saiz and Galen Lamphere-Englund co-founder and convener of the Extremism and Gaming Research Network to discuss Gonzalo's recent paper on the growing threat of terrorist financing through online gaming platforms. They discuss how terrorist and extremist actors are increasingly exploiting online platforms, not only to fundraise but also disseminate propaganda, recruit members and incite and engage in radicalisation activities.

Jessica Davis, Stephen Reimer and host Tom Keatinge discuss the Financial Action Task Force's recent report on terrorist financing. In this latest episode of the STR podcast, host Tom Keatinge caught up with CFS Associate Fellows Jessica Davis and Stephen Reimer to review the Financial Action Task Force's latest report on the means used by terrorists to raise funds and the wide variety of methods used to move money within and between organisations. They consider that while the FATF update is undeniably comprehensive in terms of its scope and heft, they query whether it properly measures and evaluates the evolution of terrorist financing threats to allow a smarter and more nuanced approach to counter-terrorist financing.