The Limits of Trump's "Madman" Iran Strategy

Trump says the ceasefire is holding — but the bigger question is: what’s actually changed? Jessica Tarlov and Aaron Parnas break down a Middle East conflict that feels stuck in place while the consequences keep escalating. Oil prices have surged past $100, the U.S. is burning through thousands of missiles, and tensions with Iran are still boiling beneath the surface as both sides escalate in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the ripple effects are hitting closer to home — from rising fuel costs to surprising supply chain impacts that could drive up everyday prices in ways most Americans didn’t see coming. Back in the U.S., the political chaos isn’t slowing down. A major redistricting fight in Virginia heads to the courts, the high-stakes California governor race starts to take shape with big-money candidates, and Republicans float the possibility of a Ghislaine Maxwell pardon — raising serious questions about accountability. And in a moment that feels almost too on-the-nose, Alex Jones melts down as The Onion takes over Infowars, with plans to convert it into a parody site — with proceeds going to Sandy Hook victims. Plus: Trump plans to attend the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Pre-order Jessica's new book I Disagree: Winning Arguments Without Losing Friends out in September! ⁠https://a.co/d/02RdR1Wa⁠ Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is this a ceasefire in name only? What does “ceasefire” even mean?  After extending the ceasefire with Iran, Donald Trump is threatening “shoot to kill” in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran seizes ships and commercial vessels come under fire. Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov break down how close we are to open conflict, what the Secretary of the Navy’s firing means, and what happens if global oil shipments become even more incapacitated.  Plus: Scott and Jessica talk about the potential government bailout for Spirit Airlines, discussing how this move would evade corporate bankruptcy laws and amount to cronyism. And, with Tim Cook’s announcement that he will step down as CEO, what comes next for Apple in the Trump era? Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jessica Tarlov sits down with activist and influencer Carlos Espina to break down Democrats’ aggressive redistricting win in Virginia and what it means for the fight for control of Congress. They dive into voter backlash, Trump’s shaky ceasefire as global tensions rise, and the growing chaos inside Trump’s orbit.  Plus — after losing ground with Latino voters in the 2024 election, what will it take for the party to win them back before 2028? #trump #uspolitics #politics #scottgalloway #jessicatarlov #republicans #gop #republicanparty #democrats #democraticparty #carlosespina #latinovoters #iranwar Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Just hours before a fragile ceasefire deadline, tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating — and the political fallout at home is already taking shape. Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov sit down with Ben Shapiro, one of the most influential voices on the right, who has called this the “single bravest foreign policy move” of his lifetime. But as the risk of a prolonged conflict grows, so do the stakes: for American power, for President Trump, and for the future of the Republican Party. They press Shapiro on whether this risks becoming the kind of “forever war” Republicans once opposed, what a realistic definition of “winning” actually looks like, and how this moment could reshape the GOP heading into 2028. They also dive into the fractures emerging inside the conservative movement — from Tucker Carlson and the right-wing media ecosystem to the growing divide among younger Republicans. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov break down a fast-moving moment in global and domestic politics as Iran steps back from new peace talks following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian cargo ship. With tensions rising, questions are mounting over whether the current ceasefire can hold — or whether negotiations are already beginning to unravel. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel back to Pakistan, even as Tehran signals deep hesitation. At home, the Supreme Court has struck down key elements of Trump’s tariff policy, triggering a potential $166 billion wave of refunds for importers and raising new questions about who ultimately bears the cost of trade policy gone wrong. Abroad, U.S. allies are openly reassessing their reliance on America. Scott and Jessica talk about the implications of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s warning that economic ties to the United States may now represent a “weakness.” Plus, the rise of AI-generated political “influencer” accounts is reshaping the information landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Trump is claiming a win after the Strait of Hormuz reopens — but the reality is far more complicated. Jessica Tarlov and Aaron Parnas break down the fragile Middle East ceasefire and the mixed signals coming out of the Trump administration. With reports of backchannel talks, a possible cash-for-uranium proposal, and Trump publicly denying it, the key question at the center of it all: is there a real deal with Iran, or just the illusion of one? Meanwhile, new concerns are emerging about conditions for U.S. troops in the region, as reports of food shortages raise serious questions about resources and preparation. Back home, Trump is still trying to sell his economic message — while brushing off rising gas prices as “fake,” even as Americans feel the squeeze. Is the White House spin landing, or are voters starting to tune it out? Plus, RFK Jr. seems to soften his stance on vaccines during tense congressional hearings, and Trump sparks backlash with his latest comments on Epstein, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s push to tax ultra-wealthy second-home owners gets a noteworthy announcement. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today is the last day to vote! We’ve been nominated for a Webby Award for Best News & Politics Podcast! Now it’s time to bring it home — and we need your help.  Cast your vote HERE:⁠ ⁠https://wbby.co/57448N⁠ Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov break down a rapidly escalating global crisis as the Iran ceasefire nears expiration and peace talks teeter on the edge of collapse. With Pakistan stepping in as a potential mediator and no clear diplomatic breakthrough in sight, questions are mounting about whether the U.S. is edging closer to renewed military action. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned the U.S. is prepared to resume combat operations if negotiations fail, including the possibility of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and expanded military pressure at sea. At the same time, calls for accountability are growing in Washington, with Democrats moving toward impeachment efforts amid mounting criticism of the administration’s handling of the conflict. The political fallout is spreading. Donald Trump is weighing in on China’s role in the region, even as global markets continue to hit record highs—raising questions about whether investors are underestimating the risk of escalation. Meanwhile, a major Senate vote on U.S. weapons policy toward Israel underscores deepening divisions inside Congress over America’s role in the region. They also examine Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s contentious testimony on Capitol Hill and the broader cultural and political battles shaping his MAHA agenda. Finally, Scott and Jessica turn to an unexpected flashpoint: growing tension between the Trump administration and Pope Leo over the moral framing of the war, and what it signals about the shifting alignment between religion and American politics. Pre-order Jessica’s new book, I Disagree: ⁠https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/803493/i-disagree-by-jessica-tarlov/⁠ Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Big news! We’ve just been nominated for a Webby Award for Best News & Politics Podcast! Now it’s time to bring it home — and we need your help.  Voting closes on Thursday 4/16 — So cast your vote HERE: ⁠https://wbby.co/57448N Jessica Tarlov sits down with data-driven political analyst Galen Druke, host of the GD Politics podcast, to break down what the numbers are actually saying — and what everyone else is getting wrong. On Tax Day, Republicans are still trying to sell last year’s tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill as a political win. Federal refunds are slightly higher — but well below expectations — and many voters either don’t know about the cuts or simply aren’t feeling the benefit. So is the message falling flat, or just getting drowned out by bigger forces? Because right now, the economy is being reshaped by the war in Iran. Oil prices have surged, gas is climbing, and new warnings suggest global growth could take a hit. Is that what voters actually care about heading into the midterms? They also dig into Trump’s approval rating, hovering around 40 percent. On its face, that looks weak — but is it actually just “normal bad” in today’s political environment? And how much do approval ratings really matter anymore? Plus: are real cracks forming inside MAGA over the Iran war? Are Democrats building genuine momentum — or getting ahead of themselves? What do voters actually want, and why does it feel like neither party is delivering? Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Big news! We’ve just been nominated for a Webby Award for Best News & Politics Podcast! Now it’s time to bring it home — and we need your help.  Cast your vote HERE: ⁠https://wbby.co/57448N Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov break down the escalating crisis following the Trump administration’s Iran blockade—and what it could mean for the global economy. As tensions intensify in the Strait of Hormuz and negotiations stall between the U.S. and Iran, markets are flashing warning signs that a broader economic shock may already be unfolding. Senator Chris Murphy joins the show to discuss the legality of the administration’s actions, Congress’s inability to assert War Powers authority, and whether the U.S. is being pushed toward a wider conflict without meaningful checks and balances. The conversation also explores growing international backlash, shifting alliances in Europe and the Middle East, and the potential fallout for global trade and energy markets. With the IMF warning of slowing global growth, rising inflation, and increased recession risk, the panel examines whether Trump’s Iran strategy could trigger a broader economic downturn—and what, if anything, can be done to stop it. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Big news! We’ve just been nominated for a Webby Award for Best News & Politics Podcast! Now it’s time to bring it home — and we need your help.  Cast your vote HERE: ⁠https://wbby.co/57448N What was supposed to be a de-escalation between the United States and Iran is already rapidly collapsing. U.S.–Iran talks in Pakistan ended without a deal, and tensions are now rising sharply after President Trump moved toward a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, a political earthquake is unfolding in Europe. Hungary’s longtime nationalist leader Viktor Orbán has been voted out after 16 years in power, marking a stunning setback for the global right-wing movement and a major realignment in European politics. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance is facing mounting scrutiny amid diplomatic setbacks abroad and declining approval at home, as questions grow about the administration’s ability to stabilize multiple crises at once. In California, the governor’s race is also in turmoil after Congressman Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following a wave of sexual assault and misconduct allegations, triggering a criminal investigation and reshaping an already volatile political field. Jessica Tarlov and Scott Galloway break down what all of this means: Is the U.S. edging closer to direct confrontation in the Middle East? Is Orbán’s defeat a one-off shock — or part of a wider global rejection of populist nationalism? And what happens when multiple political systems start breaking down at the same time? Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices