July 15, 2025: A political Bizarro World

What do Republicans need to do to outperform expectations in the coming midterm elections? According to new polling obtained exclusively by Playbook, the answer may in part rest in touting their support for a facet of Obamacare. Meanwhile, Democrats see a split among progressives in a major House primary today in Arizona, and the party seems to be sounding somewhat MAGA-fied when it comes to the Jeffrey Epstein files. What’s going on? Contributing author Adam Wren and chief Playbook correspondent Dasha Burns unpack it all.

For years, prominent voices from Trump world have agitated for the release of all files in the case of Jeffrey Epstein, the wealthy and well-connected financier and convicted sex offender who died by suicide in prison. Which is a big part of the reason why the blowback is so ferocious to last week’s announcement from AG Pam Bondi that no further documents will be released in the case. If they thought that would end the story, they were wrong: Trump’s hyper-loyal base isn’t satisfied with the departments’ findings, and they’re taking it out on Attorney General Pam Bondi and other senior administration officials. What sets this issue apart for the base, and will Democrats be able to capitalize on this fracture? Playbook contributing author Adam Wren and chief Playbook correspondent Dasha Burns walk through it all.

Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, is a longtime immigration law enforcement official now tasked with helping implement the administration’s massive deportation campaign. In a wide-ranging interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns, Homan explains what will be done with the $170 billion recently passed by Congress to help the effort, defends the tactics of ICE agents, and has a message for those who say undocumented farmworkers should be spared. “People who say ‘don't arrest workers,’ they don't understand the whole ugly underbelly of illegal immigration the way I do,” he tells Burns.  Plus, on the one year anniversary of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Butler, PA, journalist Salena Zito shares her first-hand account as described in her new book, “Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump and the Fight for America's Heartland.”

There has been a quiet shift in President Donald Trump’s Washington. Halfway through the first year of his second term, Trump can boast a list of successes, most recently the passage of the sweeping Republican megabill. Now, Washington’s attention is starting to pivot to the midterms. And what comes next for the president is less clear. He won’t be on the ballot in 2028, but in many ways he will in 2026. How is the White House navigating these new political straits, and how are they calculating which fights they want to pick? Playbook editor Zack Stanton and POLITICO White House reporter Megan Messerly discuss.

Today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Malaysia, where the ASEAN Foreign Ministers summit is underway. On its surface, the Rubio-Lavrov meeting isn’t necessarily notable. But it comes as a seismic shift is underway in President Donald Trump’s approach to Russia and Ukraine — and as he seems to have finally reached the limit of his patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As Russia continues to attack Ukraine, Putin is putting Trump’s reputation as an expert negotiator — and his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize — on the line. Playbook author Jack Blanchard and chief Playbook correspondent Dasha Burns discuss how this could play out, and what it means for the future of Ukraine.

Yesterday, the Supreme Court eased the way for President Donald Trump to proceed with his plans to fire tens of thousands of federal workers by executive order. The implications for Washington — and the nation — are vast. But will the win — and the ensuing makeover of the bureaucracy — satisfy a disgruntled MAGA base? Playbook author Jack Blanchard and chief Playbook correspondent Dasha Burns talk it through. Plus, a peek at the growing daylight between the White House and members of Trump’s Cabinet.

After a few weeks during which things seemed to go more or less as the Trump administration had hoped, MAGA world is suddenly in revolt. Yesterday, the Justice Department announced that it would not release any further documents pertaining to its investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, the notorious sex offender and wealthy financier whose 2019 death fueled conspiracy theories across the political spectrum. Many members of the MAGA base aren’t satisfied with the DOJ’s decision — and its conclusion that he died by suicide and did not maintain a long-rumored “client list” — and are aiming their ire at Attorney General Pam Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel and Deputy Director Dan Bongino. Playbook author Jack Blanchard and chief Playbook correspondent Dasha Burns discuss the potential political fallout.

For President Donald Trump, it’s a week of tests on several fronts. After deadly floods in Texas, his administration’s cuts to the NOAA and National Weather Service are receiving new scrutiny, with many critics calling for investigations into what went wrong — and wondering how to prevent more disasters in the coming hurricane season. Meanwhile, as the nation inches toward a new trade deadline and a wave of new tariffs, the economy is bracing for impact. And on the global stage, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to visit the White House this evening — his third such trip in the Trump 2.0 era. Playbook author Jack Blanchard and chief correspondent Dasha Burns walk through all you need to know to start the week.

As Congress wrestles over the GOP’s megabill package, President Donald Trump heads to Iowa for a major rally on the eve of the July 4 holiday. Playbook’s chief correspondent Dasha Burns joins author Jack Blanchard to talk through the ghosts of rallies past, what to watch for this time around and what some people misunderstand about Trump’s connection with his audience.

The GOP’s massive reconciliation package heads back to the House this morning after narrowly crawling to passage in the Senate yesterday. But it looks much different than the last time the chamber considered it: To get through the Senate, the bill underwent an major makeover that drastically increases the deficit and could complicate the voting math in the House. The implications — for everyday Americans, for President Donald Trump’s agenda and for the 2026 and 2028 elections — couldn’t be much bigger. POLITICO senior Congress editor Mike DeBonis joins Playbook author Jack Blanchard to talk through how it went down and what comes next.