Francis Hunt: Why Silver Just Broke Out, The End of Cycle & Western Collapse

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Francis Hunt “The Market Sniper” to the show. Francis opens by declaring that a major reset is underway, urging listeners to aggressively accumulate gold and silver while nations like South Korea and Norway dump US treasuries and increase gold holdings. He sees this as part of a broader loss of faith in American assets and the dollar, driven by unsustainable debt, eroding rule of law, and diminishing global trust. Hunt believes the US is in the final injury time of its economic dominance, with a major crisis likely within three years, leading to a severe contraction in asset values, credit, and living standards. Technically, Hunt identifies a re-engagement of precious metals, noting that gold and silver have broken out of falling wedge continuation patterns and are resuming their uptrends. He points to silver showing relative strength and expects both metals to trade higher into year-end, though not yet reaching extreme targets. His macro technical structure for silver targets $330 and eventually four-digit prices, while gold is also set for substantial gains. He views the current correction as a healthy pause before the next major leg up. Hunt frames gold as the “king” of anti-fiat assets, with silver and miners following. He warns that the coming economic collapse will be global but centered on the West, triggering a parabolic rise in precious metals as fiat currencies debase. He advises heavy allocation to physical metals, far beyond typical portfolio percentages, as protection against systemic risks including potential capital controls, digital currency mandates, and wealth confiscation through unrealized capital gains taxes. Hunt also sees opportunity in precious metals miners and emphasizes the importance of geographic diversification away from Western epicenters. He concludes that building and preserving wealth through this period is not greed but a necessity for survival and maintaining quality of life. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:10 – Current Market Trends Radar 00:03:30 – Precious Metals Charts Analysis 00:09:50 – Gold Silver Ratio Discussion 00:14:50 – Macro Empire Collapse Themes 00:24:02 – Financial Crisis Timeline 00:34:20 – Gold Remonetization Possibilities 00:38:27 – Precious Metals Miners Outlook 00:42:07 – Rerating of Precious Metals 00:44:46 – Global Economic Contagion 00:47:28 – Wealth Preservation Strategies 00:53:53 – The Market Sniper Guest Links: X: https://x.com/themarketsniper X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper Website: https://themarketsniper.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Contrarian Investor and Publisher of the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report Marc Faber to the show. Faber opened the discussion by emphasizing the unprecedented complexity facing economists and investors today, driven by a confluence of dismal fiscal situations in Western democracies, geopolitical tensions, and the central role of central banks in financing massive deficits. He questioned whether Western economies have experienced real growth over the last 20 years or merely nominal expansion fueled by money printing, which has inflated asset prices for the wealthy while eroding the purchasing power and living standards of the middle and lower classes. Faber argued that this monetary inflation, which began in earnest with quantitative easing, is a path to societal disaster that cannot be stopped without causing pain that democracies will not accept. He asserted that the current multi-decade bull market in assets will inevitably end in a significant crash, and the key question for investors is how to lose the least amount of money when it does. While he acknowledged the US Treasury market remains healthy for now, he cast doubt on official inflation figures, suggesting real cost-of-living increases are much higher. On gold, Faber reiterated his long-standing advice that individuals should act as their own central banks and consistently accumulate physical gold as a store of value, noting it may decline less than other assets like AI and semiconductor stocks in a crash. He also warned of the risk that governments could outlaw private gold ownership, as they restricted freedoms during COVID. Faber concluded by noting that in real terms, energy and agricultural commodities are historically cheap, but he stressed that in a debt deflation, nearly all asset prices would fall, making capital preservation the paramount concern. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:04 – Key Economic Trends Focus 00:05:31 – Real vs Nominal Growth 00:09:19 – Capitalism and Market Reforms 00:14:40 – Money Printing Unsustainability 00:15:40 – Debt & Economic Growth 00:17:40 – Future Asset Bubble Crash 00:20:48 – US Treasury Market Health 00:22:30 – Inflation Measurement Issues 00:29:06 – Gold as Value Store 00:35:49 – Correction in Asset Prices 00:38:12 – Energy Markets Outlook 00:44:37 – Gloom Boom Doom Report 00:47:33 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/ X: https://x.com/gloomboomdoom Dr. Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a Ph.D. in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Mr. Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich, and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, Marc was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, publishing a widely read monthly investment newsletter, “THE GLOOM BOOM & DOOM,” a report highlighting unusual investment opportunities. Dr. Faber is also the author of several books, including “TOMORROW’S GOLD – Asia’s Age of Discovery,” first published in 2002 and highlighted future investment opportunities. “TOMORROW’S GOLD” was on Amazon’s bestseller list and translated into Japanese, Korean, Thai, and German. Marc is also a regular contributor to several leading financial publications around the world. In addition, Dr. Faber is a frequent speaker at various investment seminars and is well known for his “contrarian” investment approach.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Don Durrett to the show. Don is an Author, Investor, and the Founder of GoldStockData. Don outlines his multi-stage debt bubble framework driving his bullish gold outlook, arguing the US has passed a point of no return on its fiscal path. He describes seven phases, from the bubble’s formation to the eventual “doom loop” recognition, and believes recent Treasury interventions signal the start of stage five. This deteriorating bond market confidence, he argues, creates an extremely asymmetric opportunity for gold and silver, with gold’s floor around $3,750 and a long-term target of $15,000, while silver could reach between $200 and $500. Durrett sees the current gold bull market as having started in early 2020, with the real momentum beginning in 2024. He expects a near-term correction in gold back toward the $4,200 level before a powerful second leg higher begins around November or December. This second leg, he emphasizes, is historically the easiest and most profitable phase because it is when mining stocks finally begin to outperform the metals, attracting broader investor interest. He notes that miners only started outperforming gold in July, a development he links directly to the onset of government bond market interventions. The conversation highlights the significant leverage available in precious metals miners due to the sector’s small universe of quality producers. Durrett explains his speculative, buy-the-dip approach, aiming for multi-bagger returns and managing a portfolio of over 170 stocks with an expectation that 30% will disappoint. He stresses the importance of patience, selling underperforming “dogs” for tax-loss purposes, and not taking profits too early in what he views as a paradigm-shifting, one-time trade. He concludes by directing experienced investors to his data tool, Goldstockdata.com, and newcomers to his book for foundational education on analyzing mining stocks. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:12 – Gold Bull Market History 00:04:19 – First Leg and Correction 00:09:25 – Fundamental Drivers of Gold 00:12:22 – Debt Bubble Stages Explained 00:20:22 – Interventions and Stage Five 00:23:32 – Silver Monetary and Industrial Role 00:28:13 – Silver Gold Ratio Analysis 00:29:30 – Gold Re-Rating Potential 00:34:49 – Golden Legs Up 00:38:00 – Fifteen Thousand Dollar Gold Target 00:44:23 – Portfolio Defense Strategy 00:51:04 – Goldstockdata.com and Book Guest Links: Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com X: https://x.com/DonDurrett Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DonDurrett Gold Book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-investors/dp/1427650241/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1291065729&sr=1-3 Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Mario Innecco to the show. Mario is a Financial and Macro Economic Analyst, and Host of the ‘Manneco64 YouTube Channel’. Mario Innecco presents a compelling case that we are in the early stages of a secular bull market for commodities, driven by decades of underinvestment and a historic reversal in the bond market. He argues that the 40-year bull market in bonds, which began in 1981, is definitively over, and this shift will fundamentally reallocate capital toward hard assets like gold, silver, and other commodities. The core problem, he explains, is an unprecedented global debt bubble. Western nations, particularly the United States, are trapped in a debt-based fiat currency system where ever-increasing debt requires more debt issuance to service, creating a vicious cycle now exacerbated by rising interest rates. This situation, he believes, will force governments into financial repression, eroding purchasing power and driving investors toward gold and silver as timeless stores of value that cannot be printed. The discussion highlights Japan as a critical “canary in the coal mine,” with its carry trade and the potential repatriation of capital posing a systemic risk to interconnected global financial markets. Innecco suggests that the ultimate solution to this monetary instability will be a return to gold as a settlement asset, a move already being pioneered by China and the BRICS nations. He views the pure fiat currency era since 1971 as a historical aberration that is nearing its end. For investors, he sees significant upside not only in physical gold and silver but particularly in undervalued mining stocks, which offer substantial leverage. While gold and silver are expected to lead, he also notes strong potential in other commodities like copper, tungsten, and oil, all supported by supply constraints and the global trend toward resource sovereignty. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:42 – Commodities Secular Bull Market 00:05:08 – Reversal of Financial Trends 00:09:04 – Gold and Silver Drivers 00:12:07 – Debt Based System Issues 00:16:05 – Inflationary Spiral Risks 00:19:28 – Japan Yen Carry Trade 00:26:25 – Gold as Government Solution 00:28:45 – China Gold Settlement Push 00:36:05 – Gold Remains Underowned 00:39:34 – Upside Scenario for Silver 00:42:30 – Miners and Portfolio Allocation 00:46:04 – Bonds and Real Returns 00:48:27 – Broader Commodities Outlook 00:50:58 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/maneco1964 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/maneco64 Mario Innecco is a seasoned financial markets and macroeconomics analyst with over 25 years of experience in the industry. He began his career in private banking in Geneva, Switzerland, before spending two decades in the City of London, specializing in exchange-traded derivatives, government bonds, interest rates, and broader economic trends. During this time, he advised major financial institutions and corporate clients on market strategies and risk management. A dedicated proponent of the Austrian School of Economics, Mario founded the maneco64 YouTube channel in November 2015, which serves as a platform for alternative economics and contrarian views. Through his videos, blog articles, and social media, he educates a worldwide audience on the intricacies of the fiat monetary system, financial markets, and the enduring value of precious metals like gold and silver.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Willem Middelkoop to the show. Willem Middelkoop is an author and is the Founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund. Middelkoop asserts that the “big reset” of the global financial system, a thesis he developed over a decade ago, is now unfolding in real time. He points to the accelerating decline of U.S. hegemony, evidenced by the collapsing petrodollar system and waning international support, particularly in the Middle East. This shift from an era of cooperation to confrontation is driving a fundamental change in capital flows, with generalist investors beginning to move away from paper assets like U.S. Treasuries toward hard assets. He notes that foreign ownership of U.S. debt has fallen below thirty percent, a situation he describes as “Weimar Lite,” where the Federal Reserve is increasingly forced to monetize government debt. This environment explains the strong performance of gold, which is being reintroduced into the monetary system without official decree, primarily through record central bank purchases. China alone is buying sixty percent of the world’s annual mine production outside its borders. While Middelkoop does not foresee a hyperinflationary collapse, as the U.S. retains powerful tools like revaluing its gold holdings, he believes a new financial crisis is likely in the coming years. In such a crisis, he expects central banks to play the “gold card,” driving a significant revaluation. This outlook informs his investment strategy, which focuses on hard assets including real estate, physical gold and silver, Bitcoin, and high-quality equities. Shifting to the mining sector, Middelkoop highlights the exceptional opportunity in gold producers, which are generating record free cash flow yet trade at historically low valuations. His fund, however, specializes in discovery investing, concentrating on a select portfolio of world-class tier-one and tier-two discoveries. He emphasizes that the key to outsized returns is maintaining a long-term position in a major discovery, allowing value to compound over decades as the deposit is developed into a producing mine. This patient, concentrated approach involves taking significant stakes in companies after the initial discovery hype and supporting them through to production. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:00 – Financial Reset Discussion 00:04:00 – US Losing Superpower Status 00:09:08 – Central Bank Gold Purchases 00:13:00 – Empire Decline and Debt 00:18:45 – Weimar Lite Scenario 00:23:00 – Gold Revaluation Process 00:28:00 – Mining Sector Opportunities 00:35:00 – Discovery Investing Strategy 00:42:00 – Portfolio Construction Advice 00:47:22 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Commodity Discover Fund: https://www.cdfund.com X: https://x.com/@wmiddelkoop Willem Middelkoop: https://substack.com/@wmiddelkoop The Big Reset: https://www.cdfund.com/download-the-big-reset.html Willem Middelkoop is the founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and also an author. He became a well-known personality through his work as a stock market commentator for the Dutch business television channel RTLZ. Middelkoop predicted the credit crisis’s onset in his book “Als de dollar valt” (If the dollar falls) in 2007. Subsequent publications were “De permanente oliecrisis” (The permanent oil crisis) – 2008, “Overleef de kredietcrisis” (Surviving the credit crisis) – 2009, “Goud en het geheim van geld” (Gold and the secret of money) – 2012, and The Big Reset – 2013. In total, he sold more than 100,000 copies of his books. The Commodity Discovery Fund was established in the summer of 2008. It started with three million euros and 22 participants. By the end of 2023, it had grown to about 2,000 participants and €104 million in assets under management.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Matthew Piepenburg to the show. Matthew Piepenburg is Partner – Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland, Author – Gold Matters. Piepenburg argues that despite 2026 volatility, including war, a historic gold correction, and US government debt surpassing $40 trillion, the secular gold bull market remains in its early chapters. He sees shakeouts and price interventions as features, not an end, and believes conditions today are stronger than the 1970s run, driven by $265 trillion global debt, negative real rates, and currency debasement. He contends that governments and central banks have narrowed options and increasingly rely on hidden QE, misleading inflation and employment data, and dollar debasement to manage debt, while Main Street suffers a real recession and middle-class erosion, and stock market gains mostly benefit top wealth. Piepenburg highlights central bank gold accumulation at record levels, especially after dollar weaponization, as a sign gold is replacing Treasuries as global collateral. He notes the shift in physical gold flows from Western exchanges to Eastern central banks and sovereign funds, and the development of Shanghai-Hong Kong physical settlement, challenging paper price discovery. He expects continued eastward shift, not dollar collapse, but a significant repricing. Matthew discusses possible US gold revaluation, either marking gold certificates to market or letting gold run, as a form of “gold QE” that would further debase the dollar. He sees miners as leveraged opportunity after sentiment lows, and stresses patience and education. For high-net-worth investors, physical gold outside the banking system in Switzerland and Singapore serves as wealth preservation. He closes that gold won’t get one rich quickly but protects from getting poor. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:10 – Volatile Year Market Overview 00:03:48 – Gold Bull Market Status 00:08:20 – Mining Sector Investor Interest 00:18:55 – Global Debt & Demographics 00:28:30 – Inflation & Conflicts 00:35:55 – Central Banks & Gold Holdings 00:45:30 – Gold Revaluation Mechanics 00:54:17 – Gold & Gov’t Debt Doubling 01:01:12 – Preparing for Coming Risks 01:07:34 – Von Greyerz Storage Services Guest Links: X: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland Website: https://goldswitzerland.com/ Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/ Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, “Rigged to Fail”. Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis MSA to the show. Michael Oliver opens the discussion by highlighting what he considers the most explosive signal in his decades-long career: the historic undervaluation of gold and silver miners relative to gold. He explained that for decades, the XAU index averaged around 25% of the gold price, but this ratio has collapsed and is currently trading near 9%. Oliver pointed to a critical technical breakout occurring in the GDX-to-gold spread, which is moving above a 13-year resistance range. This breakout, he argued, is a powerful signal not just for miners to vastly outperform the metal, but also for an impending dramatic price advance in gold itself, as the spread only rises during precious metals bull runs. The conversation shifted to the broader macroeconomic backdrop, where Oliver identified a “nuclear” government bond crisis as the primary catalyst. He warned that the US Treasury market is far larger than the stock market and is now slipping into quarter-century lows in price, reflecting extreme distrust among investors. Oliver stated that central banks will have no choice but to print money aggressively to defend their debt markets, which will further degrade the currency unit and propel gold higher. He believes this environment will force large asset managers to rotate out of an overvalued stock market, where key financial sector ETFs are showing imminent technical breakdowns, into a vastly underpriced commodity sector. Regarding other commodities, Oliver maintained that silver is the single most explosive market, being historically repressed relative to gold and the broader money supply. He suggested that if silver merely caught up to the rise seen in other metals since the 1980s, a price of $500 would not be shocking. On oil, he argued it remains vastly underpriced relative to both its historical highs and the decay of the dollar, predicting a broad repricing of commodities as an asset class. Finally, Oliver cautioned that the US dollar index is on the verge of a sharp decline, breaking down from a year-long consolidation, which could accelerate gold’s rally and inflict further damage on US equities. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:08 – Miners Relative Value to Gold 00:02:27 – GDX Spread Chart Analysis 00:05:44 – Breakout Implications for Miners 00:08:30 – Precious Metals and Bond Crisis 00:11:15 – US Government Bond Market Crisis 00:16:30 – Financial Sector Momentum Breakdown 00:19:03 – Capital Rotation and Liquidity 00:21:38 – Gold History Versus Stocks 00:25:15 – Silver Explosive Upside Potential 00:28:20 – Inflation & Debt Expansion 00:31:00 – Commodities Oil and Asset Shift 00:41:45 – Dollar Index Implications 00:43:35 – Platinum Group Elements Outlook 00:44:52 – MSA Details & Dollar Crisis Guest Links: Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/ X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5 Email: mailto:[email protected] Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview. J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX. In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth. In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology. In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Henrik Zeberg to the show. Henrik Zeberg is Head Macro Economist at Swissblock. Zeberg believes the equity rally is entering its final phase, with a major market top likely within the next quarter. He warns this will not be an ordinary correction but a significant downturn, driven by a weakening US economy that many market participants have yet to recognize. The consumer is in a particularly fragile state, with depleted savings, rising credit card delinquencies, and housing affordability at crisis levels, all pointing to an imminent economic rollover. Zeberg explains that the current cycle mirrors past business cycles, where high rates and inflation eventually stall growth. However, this time the situation is exacerbated by the massive debt accumulation enabled by years of quantitative easing and artificially suppressed rates. The unwinding of these distortions will be severe, combining elements of both the 2000 tech bust and the 2008 financial crisis, but likely worse due to opaque private credit risks and the psychological impact of recent inflation on consumer behavior. Gold is expected to face headwinds initially as a liquidity crunch and a strengthening US dollar cause a pullback, potentially to $3,100 or lower. However, once the Federal Reserve is forced to intervene aggressively with yield suppression, gold will enter a powerful rally, potentially rising fivefold in a few years and outperforming equities dramatically. Zeberg sees this as a buying opportunity for physical gold, recommending dollar-cost averaging. Silver and gold miners will also benefit, though they may suffer during the initial downturn. Zeberg advises listeners to prepare for a significant stock market decline, suggesting that taking profits now and developing a contingency plan is prudent. While the US dollar may be the best near-term safe haven, precious metals and commodities will be the ultimate beneficiaries when the Fed steps in for real. He encourages following his work through Swissblock’s services and his Substack for ongoing analysis. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:04 – Macro Picture and Equity Rally 00:03:22 – Drivers Behind Market Top 00:05:27 – State of the Consumer 00:09:00 – Inflation and Business Cycle 00:13:50 – Debt-Loads Gov’t & Consumers 00:18:35 – How Bad Recession Could Be 00:21:45 – Equities and NASDAQ Decline 00:24:05 – Chain of Events in Crash 00:27:26 – Government Debt Intersection 00:33:54 – Energy and Oil Crisis? 00:37:00 – Gold Fate in Liquidity Crunch 00:44:24 – Gold Pullback Expectations 00:45:20 – Gold Miners & Upside? 00:49:20 – Stock Market Topping 00:55:00 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg Website: https://swissblock.net/ Henrik Zeberg is a Macroeconomist (M.Sc. Econ) from the University of Copenhagen. He is a Business Cycles student, Elliott Wave practitioner, and Chartist. He is the Head Macro Economist at Swissblock where he writes the Zeberg letter a comprehensive monthly macroeconomic report.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Art Berman to the show. Art Berman is The Energy Realist. Berman explains that the initially feared catastrophic disruption from the Iran War has been partially offset, with production losses revised down to roughly 5 million barrels a day, though he stresses this remains a historically massive number. The absence of immediate global economic collapse is attributed to significant demand destruction, particularly in China, and the critical role of inventories. Using an analogy of a savings account versus a paycheck, he distinguishes between strategic and commercial reserves, noting that ample inventories have cushioned the market, preventing oil prices from spiking as they did during the Ukraine war when stocks were dangerously low. However, he warns that this cushion is finite and being drawn down at an alarming rate, with his comparative inventory model suggesting severe price pressures could materialize by November. The discussion highlights the profound risks associated with shut-in production, where wells may never return to prior output levels due to complex subsurface physics. Berman describes the situation as a permanent “phase shift,” arguing the global oil system is fragmenting into distinct geopolitical blocs and will never revert to its pre-war state. He emphasizes that alternative supplies are not a simple solution because crude oil quality varies dramatically; light U.S. shale oil cannot easily replace medium-grade Persian Gulf crude required by many refineries. Looking at the longer term, Berman frames oil as a mature, declining resource, stating that civilization must eventually adapt to the end of perpetual growth, a transition that will fundamentally reshape society. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:44 – Iran War Energy Disruptions 00:03:00 – China Demand Destruction Analysis 00:05:24 – Diesel Prices Regional Impacts 00:06:52 – Stocks Versus Flows Distinction 00:09:04 – Savings Account Analogy 00:18:14 – Global Inventories Assessment 00:22:37 – Persian Gulf Production Losses 00:33:15 – Lost Production Focus 00:39:51 – Phase Shift Market Scenario 00:50:53 – Refinery Tightness Crack Spreads 00:59:03 – Comparative Inventory Tool 01:21:20 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://artberman.com X: https://x.com/aeberman12 Art Berman isn’t your run-of-the-mill energy consultant; he’s a full-blown disruptor in a realm riddled with myths. With 40 years in petroleum geology and an intriguing twist – a degree in Middle Eastern history – Art slices through energy complexities with academic rigor and market savvy. Forget what you thought you knew. This man’s comparative inventory approach is a guiding light for traders, investors, and policymakers. And he doesn’t just spend his time consulting. Art is an adjunct lecturer at the University of Houston, your go-to expert witness, and an electrifying keynote speaker who doesn’t mince words. In a sector awash with misinformation, Art’s your source for gut-punching, data-backed truths. His clientele spans from ambitious investors to globe-spanning corporations, all seeking decisions steeped in reality, not fantasy. Love him or hate him, one thing is certain: Art Berman is an undeniable force in the energy sector. Away from the charts and graphs, Art enjoys Baroque music and psychology and spending family time with his wife, kids, grandkids, and his dog, Lily. So, are you ready for the unvarnished truth? Look no further.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Ted Oakley to the show. Ted Oakley is Founder and Managing Partner | Oxbow Advisors. The discussion explores investment strategy, focusing on long-term holdings, hard assets, and contrarian opportunities. Oakley emphasizes the importance of a longer investment horizon, typically holding stocks for three to ten years, while acknowledging that most traders focus on short-term moves, often using leverage and options—which he views as risky. He notes that his firm recently bought back gold, silver, and mining stocks after significant corrections, considering them cheap on a cash flow basis, and continues to hold energy positions. Oakley expresses caution regarding certain AI-driven tech companies, citing concerns about debt levels, earnings quality, and the sustainability of current growth. He sees parallels to the late 1990s and the potential for revaluation if commercial viability falters. He advocates maintaining liquidity to seize opportunities during market dislocations, often holding substantial short-term treasuries alongside gold as a currency hedge against dollar depreciation and long-term inflationary pressures from rising government debt and deficits. The conversation turns to gold, with Oakley viewing the recent pullback to around $4,000 as a buying opportunity for those with a multi-year outlook, expecting much higher prices driven by central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends. He sees gold miners and royalty companies as undervalued, noting strong balance sheets and wide profit margins relative to extraction costs. Silver is also considered attractive, though more volatile. On energy, Oakley highlights the sector’s profitability even at moderate oil prices and the structural supply constraints from underinvestment. He recommends a diversified approach across producers, pipelines, and service companies, focusing on quality names bought at a discount to intrinsic value. He also discusses critical minerals and iron ore as part of a broader hard asset strategy to protect against currency debasement. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:00 – Current Investment Opportunities 00:02:23 – Long-term Investment Horizon 00:05:05 – Microsoft and AI Concerns 00:09:37 – Liquidity and Market Risks 00:11:29 – Debasement and Hard Assets 00:14:36 – Gold Market Opportunity 00:18:19 – Silver vs Gold Thesis 00:28:34 – Gold Miners Landscape 00:31:30 – Royalty Companies Value 00:34:01 – Energy Sector Fundamentals 00:39:13 – Critical Minerals Exposure 00:46:35 – Wrap Up Guest Links: X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Website: https://oxbowadvisors.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/OxbowAdvisors J. Ted Oakley, CFA, CFP, is Managing Director and Founder of Oxbow Advisors. With more than forty years of experience in advising high net worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, Thoughtful Money, The David Lin Report, and many more. Mr. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Mr. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 40 years ago. He is the author of Eleven books: You Sold Your Company, $30 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, Your Money Mentality, Stay Rich with a Balanced Portfolio & his 2025 latest release: Second Generation Wealth. Mr. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. Mr. Oakley recently arranged for Foster Angels in South Texas to represent The Heart Gallery of Texas to further their adoption efforts.