The Fed is back to lowering rates

All of the major US equity indices hit a new all-time high, a day after the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of the year and stronger-than-expected economic data. Europe followed suit with strength in semiconductor stocks. Central banks diverged: Norway cut rates, the Bank of England held steady, and the Bank of Japan surprised by announcing plans to offload its large equity ETF holdings. Asian markets are mixed, with Japanese stocks volatile and Asian dollar bond spreads at record lows—reflecting global optimism in credit markets. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his take on this week’s central bank decisions, while Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, examines the USD and gold following a central bank heavy week.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:08) - Central bank actions – implications for bonds: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (12:28) - FX and metals markets: Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva (16:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US central bank delivered a widely expected rate cut, sparking mixed market reactions amid cautious optimism. Tech stocks wobbled, especially Nvidia, after China’s internet regulator had told the country’s tech companies to stop buying Nvidia’s AI chips and terminate its existing orders. Robotaxis and a USD 42 billion tech pact between the US and the UK fuelled gains elsewhere. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains copper’s role in powering the AI revolution and what the Fed decision means for the gold price.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:44) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Yesterday brought a mixed set of signals across global markets. We saw unexpected optimism from Germany, developments on the US–China trade front, stronger-than-expected US retail sales figures, and mounting anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Equity markets in both Europe and the US ended the session lower, partly weighed down by profit-taking ahead of the policy announcement. In contrast, gold surged to new highs, breaking through the USD 3,700 per ounce mark. Today, all eyes are on the Fed, its forward guidance, and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference that will follow the rate decision. Joining us on the show is Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who provides deeper insights into the rate decision, equity market valuations, and the outlook for emerging markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:30) - Equity markets in Fed week: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (12:31) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global stocks rise on upbeat US-China trade talks, with technology giants driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs. Alphabet is joining the USD 3 trillion club, while Tesla is surging after Elon Musk’s USD 1 billion share purchase. US chip stocks are facing pressure from Chinese antitrust probes, and gold is at an all-time high on rate cut expectations. European markets are gaining despite France’s credit downgrade, with French 10-year government bond yields above their Italian counterparts – a first since 1999. Asian equities reach a 4-year high on strength in technology, and Tencent is launching its first offshore yuan bond. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research shares insights on the ‘Buy now, pay later’ industry.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:21) - Future of finance: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:01) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets are off to a strong start this week, which will be a critical one with a 'triple-header' of major central bank decisions. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are all scheduled to announce their latest monetary policy moves. Recent economic data suggest it may now be time for the Fed to restart its rate-cutting cycle, following a pause that began in January. In today’s discussion, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who anticipates further declines in US Treasury yields and the value of the US dollar. He also expects equities to continue their upward momentum, supported by improving technicals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:06) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:58) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

marked a second consecutive pause following eight hikes since last year. In the US, data was mixed: inflation remains sticky but isn’t accelerating, and jobless claims unexpectedly surged. These developments have reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Asian markets were lifted overnight by renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. In commodities, gold is trading near record highs, while oil has pulled back from earlier gains this week as investors refocus on fundamentals. Joining us today is Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on what the ECB’s decision and US inflation data mean for bond markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:07) - Fixed income markets after ECB and US inflation data: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (12:43) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities surged again yesterday, closing off their intraday highs but nevertheless achieving new records. US PPI data confirmed that growth is slowing, providing more of the data that the Fed needs to start cutting rates again – markets will now scrutinise today’s CPI data for more clues. Oracle’s near 36% rally yesterday was sparked by astonishing cloud demand numbers. Asian tech also drove markets there higher. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, explains why his team believes oil prices should trend lower and gold higher in the next 12 months, whilst Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides some insights into relative trends in equity style factor performance and why they are important when making portfolio decisions.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:35) - Oil and gold: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:05) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis (14:12) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks in the US hit another all-time high on expectations that the Federal Reserve will fight the slowdown in jobs growth with interest rate cuts. US inflation data out today and tomorrow will be the next test for markets. The Anglo/Teck ‘merger-of-equals’ creates a premier global player in copper and critical minerals. Today, we are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who explains why he believes markets will grind higher into year-end, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PMPrivate Banking Sales Geneva, who shares his current insights on currencies and metals markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:39) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (13:03) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (17:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

French Prime Minister Bayrou lost the confidence vote yesterday, triggering the collapse of his government. European markets had no chance to react, as the decision came after trading ended. The political uncertainty adds fresh strain to the eurozone, where stock markets actually started the week on a high. Speaking of highs, the Nasdaq hit a fresh record, driven by strength in tech and AI-related stocks, while gold also rallied to a new peak, supported by expectations of a US rate cut and ongoing geopoliticaltensions. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly touched a record intraday high before turning negative, as investors assess the implications of Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation. Joining us today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the video game industry and the structural transformation it’s undergoing.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (05:40) - Video game industry undergoing structural transformation: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (09:06) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Nikkei 225 was up around 1.5% and the Topix hit a record high this morning after Japan’s prime minister resigned over the weekend. It’s hoped that a new regime should provide greater longer-term policy and political stability, and a more conducive pro-growth environment for the equities market. Asia’s stock markets rallied after the US jobs report on Friday provided further justification for data-based Fed rate cuts.At the start of a big week including inflation data, a vote of confidence in the French government and the September ECB meeting, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that there’s room for both US equities and the price of gold to rally further and for US Treasury yields to keep falling.  (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:31) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.