S2 E6: US Stocks - Exit Stage Left?

Send us a textVladimir Lenin once said... "The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."While there is controversy as to whether it was in fact Lenin who said that, or the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes, who attributed that line to Lenin following an interview he conducted with the Russian leader...the fact is simple, the US Consumer is being CRUSHED, ground up between the millstones of taxation and inflation.Here is what Keynes wrote, quoting Lenin..."As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery."We have bubbles all over, especially in Consumer Credit, and specifically Credit Card Debt. In fact, the total of US Credit Card Debt has risen ABOVE the level of Household Savings for the first time since 2008, while the Seriously Delinquent Rate rose to 10.83%, the highest since 2008.With no savings and "real" wage growth that is less than one percent year-year, the Consumer is being ground up and crushed by the "millstone". The Fed WILL be FORCED to respond in the not-so-distant future, a dynamic that will meld into HUGE Trade and Budget Deficits, MASSIVE Government, Consumer and Household Debt, and the onset of the BRICs Unit to replace the USD as the means of "settling" global trade ... ALL point to a LOWER USD, which means HIGHER Commodity prices, and a STAGFLATION defined macro-economic environment ...and...bullish breakouts in Silver and Bitcoin, in the wake of the push in Gold prices to new all-time highs.Indeed, Vladimir would be bullish here, on Silver and BTC! Find out why in Season Two, Episode 12 of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing!" Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textThe "Twin Towers" are gone, but never forgotten. Greg worked in Four WTC for several years, and in the adjacent World Financial Center as well, so it is with all humility and respect that he discusses the macro-economic version of the "Twin Towers", because they are back, standing taller than ever, and putting the US Dollar in harm's way. Greg speaks to the records being set within BOTH the US Federal Budget data, and the US Trade data, as the Twin Tower DEFICITS are a BIG problem, again.Throw in a discussion of how the Fed is behind the "monetary curve", and how the stock market faces an "economic reality check", let alone detailing the RAPID evolution of a viable and wholly credible BRICs Unit as an alternative to the USD as the "currency" used to transact/facilitate global trade ...... and the greenback is about to be exposed, as the "Emperor Has No Clothes".So, what to do, investment wise, to protect yourself? Greg answers that question, in today's episode of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing". Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textIt's Season Two, Episode Ten and Greg reviews the dramatic shift in the monetary policy narrative from the Federal Reserve this past week, away from "fighting inflation" to "protecting the economy", following yet another in a string of EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK economic data, culminating in a nightmarish Employment Situation Report on Friday from the BLS.Greg dissects the data, not only in the US, but also in China, who published equally WEAK macro-economic in the last two weeks, as the two largest economies on the planet are suddenly in a downward race towards a "recession".As such markets have reacted precisely as Greg has been expecting since the first week of July, and dating back to late-March/early-April when he stated that by the August-October period the market would suffer from an "economic reality check". Bonds prices SOARED, boosting his Podcast picks in the SHY Short-Term Treasury Bond ETF, the MBB Mortgage Bond ETF and the XLE Real-Estate ETF, all of which rallied last week in the face of a deep decline in the indexes.The reality check Greg has expected became more of an epiphany, as the market is realizing what Greg talked about in Episode Nine in mid-July, that the Fed and other global Central Banks have fallen "behind the policy curve" and need to act more aggressively amid a DEFLATION in economic activity. Greg has discussed that deflation since May, highlighting the crash in Home Building, a vicious contraction in the Mortgage market, a plunge in Home Sales, a Consumer who is being choked by continued, sticky, price inflation, and now a Service Sector into a mini-melt-down, and a Labor market that has turned to the downside, with 1.3 million more people unemployed in July, versus July of last year.What is next for the markets? Greg ponders that question too. And finally, Greg examines a pertinent lesson to be learned from a Market Wizard, as he continues his review of (his former colleague, and boss) Jack Schwager's must-read classic book, "Market Wizards". This week Greg "talks to" legendary Commodity-Currency trader Bruce Kovner of the famed "Caxton Corporation" (formerly a client of Greg's, to be fully transparent.) Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textIn Episode 9, Greg introduces his new Three Podcast Special Series, "interviews" with a handful of the greatest money managers/traders of all-time, thanks to his colleague of many years, the legendary Jack Schwager, author of the must-read and top-ten all-time financial market book, "Market Wizards".Yes, Greg has received permission from Jack to share excerpts from this classic book, an abundance of real world blood, sweat and tears lessons from the greatest of all time, several of whom Greg has worked with or for during his long-tenured career. Of course, Greg's color commentary is priceless unto itself, given his status as a tenacious trader and money manager with four decades of hands-on experience.And there's more, as Greg shares his current macro-monetary view on the latest US economic data, Fed policy, key comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the volatile price action in US stock indexes at the end of the week...and...a preview of his new MASSIVE Special Report on the BRICS currency and its implications for the US Dollar, and most specifically, for Gold and Silver sector, replete with an overview of his top ranked bullish trends among the individual mining shares.Listen for details on how to get a copy of this landmark report, at the end of today's Podcast. Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textThere was a mind-numbing Presidential debate this week on national TV, but there is NO "debating" the facts:Fact -- the US consumer is cocooning, cutting back discretionary spending amid a depletion of savings, maxed-out credit cards, and "real" wages that barely keep pace with (still high) inflation. "Real" (inflation adjusted, in dollar terms) Retail Sales have been NEGATIVE for five consecutive months, in 19 of the last 20 months, and in 24 of the last 27 months. That is a FACT.Fact -- the US housing market is CRUMBLING, as New and Existing Home Sales PLUNGE and violate multi-decade uptrend lines as prices hit new record highs and mortgage rates remain high. Moreover, Sales crash while Starts, Permits and Completions all are plummeting and reaching recession-like levels, setting up the next great home price inflation when the Fed does eventually cut rates.Fact -- excluding the 2Q of 2020 and $3.2 trillion in COVID relief, Joe Biden has created more debt than ANY other President, BY a factor of +50%, and he still has three more quarters to continue his policy of using taxpayer money to try and buy this election. Oh, and as of the end-1Q Public Debt hit another record high of $35.586 trillion, up by +$6.839 trillion since Biden took office.Fact -- inflation remains HIGH, and is set to re-accelerate to the UPSIDE, after posting a Gasoline price decline induced unchanged reading for the month of May. Over half of the (16) major US cities still post a year-year CPI rate of +4%, or higher.Greg discusses all of the above, and offers specific investment strategy thoughts on Energy, Crude Oil in particular, the high-flying Information-Technology shares, the Communication Services sector, the XLRE Real Estate ETF, and the Mortgage Backed Securities market, in today's Money, Markets & New Age Investing podcast.And, for the charts mentioned within, or for any other information pertaining to the topics discussed in this podcast, please feel free to email directly [email protected] Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textFirst, don't miss the offer of a FREE Chart Book that accompanies this Episode, with dozens of cool charts on Consumer Credit, Delinquencies, Household Finances, Inflation, Retail Sales, and, ALL the markets we are currently involved with, Financials, Utilities, Consumer Staples and Utilities along with the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, Base Metals, Uranium, Natural Gas, Bitcoin, Ethereum and more!  Email us at [email protected] to request this FREE Chart Book. As for "Powell Taps Out", Greg notes that at the May FOMC meeting, as he did in March, Jerome Powell offered subtle yet significant "signals" that the Fed has no interest in raising rates again, and that eventually there will be rate cuts. But nuance speaks more loudly, as the Fed is increasingly signaling that they are willing to acquiesce to higher general rates of inflation, and inflation expectations, as long as the labor market remains relatively "tight" and the Consumer continues to spend.  But the latter point is coming under attack, even as Powell's "downshift" in the policy narrative is causing ALL asset prices to appreciate, primarily because as US interest rates fall, again, the US-EU (German) Rate Spreads are narrowing, among others, meaning a lower premium is being paid to holders of Dollars, versus other currencies. A lower US Dollar is bullish for stocks, but in times of inflation a lower USD is MORE bullish for commodities, especially Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum) and commodities in short supply (Copper, Cocoa, Coffee, Wheat, Energy). Indeed, increasingly hard assets are outperforming paper assets, specifically over the last two weeks since our last podcast.Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textThe S+P 500 has risen by +50.8% since the October 2022 low.  The XLK S+P Information-Technology ETF has risen by +88.0% since the October 2022 low.   And since just last October the NASDAQ-100 Index has risen by +31.2% .The last six-months of this massive bull move in US stocks has been driven by three themes: ·       Expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024 ·       AI and chip stocks ·       The perception that the Consumer is "strong" Two of these themes have IMPLODED, and the other has run its near-term course, leaving the US stock market VERY VULNERABLE to profit-taking and an economic-reality-check sell-off. Get the inside scoop and prepare to take some "protective" and "defensive" moves. Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textTwenty-two global Central Banks held meetings this past week to decide what, if any, changes they would make to their monetary policy stance. More than one-third of those Central Banks (8) voted to CUT their official short-term Policy Rate, TWICE as many as voted to raise rates (4), while 10 of 22 left policy unchanged.Of those Central Banks that left rates unchanged, the majority of them communicated belief that they would be cutting rates this summer or fall, as global monetary officialdom is starting to ease policy before inflation actually declines to their target rate, thereby "acquiescing" to higher general rates of inflation, via higher lows to be set in year over year inflation rates. Greg discusses all of this and then some, particularly as it relates to the US FOMC and how their move this week to prepare markets for EASING of "Quantitative Tightening" is the first step towards a full-blown policy reversal, which in turn is supporting asset prices, specifically stock indexes and commodity markets, like Energy. Listen to find out which specific markets to which Greg is allocating his client's money. Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textYou have heard me warning about a coming crisis in US Commercial Real-Estate and how it would link to Small Banks, not only here in the US, but around the world. Moreover, I warned in December about Small Bank Balance Sheets, and cited that as the likely REASON WHY the Fed abandoned their hawkish rhetoric at the year-end meeting.  You have heard me warning about a coming Consumer credit problem, particularly as it relates to out of control borrowing via Credit Cards, and how this would link to the global economy in a way that would force the "dovish" hands of Central Banks, particularly the US Fed. Please welcome to the stage that infamous pirate..."Captain Crunch", here to lead us into the next big macro-economic phase, a Credit Crunch and Consumer Cocoon, here in the US, in the UK and across much of Europe.In today's episode Greg will detail the data, explain the dynamic, explore the possible macro-scenarios, and talk end-game as it relates to where specifically to invest your money (including Info-Tech, Healthcare, Uranium, Food Commodities and Bitcoin or Ethereum) in order to stay out of harm's way, and out of the reach of...Captain Crunch!Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textIn Episode #3 of Season Two Greg offers an in depth look at three countries which reflect the three primary and dominant macro-economic "backdrops" - Stagflation, Inflation and Deflation. Each of these locations offer crystal clear evidence within the data and the market positioning and thus gives us clues as to how these scenarios may emerge in other countries, including the Anglo-nations (AKA USA, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia). Subsequently we can use these three examples to provide a roadmap to aid in deploying risk capital, depending on which of the three primary macro-economic themes becomes dominant. Greg also digs into the latest US macro-data, and more importantly offers his thoughts on investment "themes" for 2024, focusing on global equity markets, US industry-sectors, and commodities, including Gold, Uranium, and Ethereum-Bitcoin. Moreover, if you wish to receive a FREE copy of Greg's "Gold Guru 2024 Year-Ahead Outlook Special" (as he offers at the end of today's episode) shoot us an email at "[email protected]" Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels