Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Tale of Two Assets

It's Friday, March 7th, 2025. This is Nelson John, let's get started.  India’s Market Turmoil & Potential Rebound The Nifty 50 has plunged 14% from its September peak, making it one of 2025’s worst-performing global indices. However, India’s steep valuations have cooled, with MSCI India’s forward P/E ratio dropping to 17.93x. Analysts suggest the correction may be nearing its end, as similar past downturns have led to rebounds. While Jefferies India sees potential for outperformance, uncertainty remains due to delayed tax cuts, RBI policy shifts, and global trade tensions. Investors are closely watching upcoming inflation data (March 12), RBI’s April rate decision, and the U.S. Fed’s March 18-19 meeting for liquidity signals. The road ahead remains volatile, but history hints at a turnaround. Razorpay Expands to Singapore Fintech giant Razorpay is entering Singapore, its second Southeast Asian market after Malaysia, aiming to simplify payments and cut cross-border transaction fees by up to 40%. “Singapore is the ideal market for our next phase of growth,” said co-founder Shashank Kumar. With digital payments projected to hit $180 billion by 2029 and near-total cashless adoption, the expansion is strategic. Razorpay’s payment gateway Curlec, which launched in Malaysia, is already seeing 30% month-on-month growth. Backed by investors like Tiger Global and Peak XV, Razorpay reported ₹2,501 crore in FY24 revenue, with net profits at ₹34 crore. While expanding globally, the India-born firm is also preparing for a domestic listing. Mudra Yojana’s Impact on Small Businesses For years, small business owners in India struggled to access credit due to collateral requirements and complex banking norms. In 2015, the government launched the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) to provide collateral-free loans. Since then, ₹31.85 trillion has been disbursed, with Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka receiving the highest amounts. Over 516 million loans have been sanctioned, fueling entrepreneurship, job creation, and financial inclusion. Q3 FY25 saw a record ₹3.39 trillion disbursed, reflecting strong demand. In response, the government raised the loan limit to ₹20 lakh, effective October 2024. Meanwhile, non-performing assets (NPAs) under the scheme have improved, dropping to 3.4% in FY24. The U.S.-China Quantum Computing Race Quantum computing, a technology capable of solving problems in minutes that would take today’s supercomputers billions of years, has sparked a fierce U.S.-China rivalry. In Hefei, a Chinese startup displayed a rare quantum machine, while American giants like Google and IBM pushed the field’s limits. China’s state-backed model has advanced quantum communications, sensing, and cooling technology, while America’s private-sector-led innovation faces investor pressure. The U.S. imposed strict export controls, fearing China’s rapid progress. With China leading in ultra-secure quantum communications and America holding a wide lead in quantum computing, the race for dominance remains heated, with global power at stake. Nestlé’s Nespresso Bets Big on India’s Coffee Boom India has long been a tea-drinking nation, but a new wave of young, affluent consumers is driving a coffee boom—one Nespresso wants to tap into. The brand launched its first boutique in Delhi’s Nexus CityWalk mall, catering to consumers eager to recreate café-quality coffee at home. “Young consumers are exposed to coffee trends through social media and cafés. Now, they want that experience at home,” says Nespresso CEO Philipp Navratil. With machines starting at ₹16,500 and coffee pods at ₹95 each, Nespresso is targeting the premium market. The company is also eyeing India’s growing hospitality sector, supplying five-star hotels, offices, and corporate lounges. With the café market growing at 8.1% annually, Nestlé is making a long-term play to redefine India’s coffee culture.

It's Thursday, March 6th, 2025. This is Nelson John, let's get started.  ITC Hotels’ Rough Debut January 29 was supposed to be a landmark day for ITC Hotels as it began trading independently. However, shares debuted nearly 30% below the implied price, dampening initial enthusiasm. Despite this, analysts remain bullish, valuing the company between ₹42,500-₹62,000 crore. ITC Hotels aims to expand to 200 hotels with 18,000 rooms in five years, relying on managed properties. However, investors worry about its limited owned-hotel pipeline. As competitors like IHCL and Marriott ramp up expansion, ITC Hotels must carve out its niche in a booming industry. Coforge’s Record-Breaking Deal Coforge Ltd soared 8% after securing a record 13-year, $1.56 billion deal with US travel tech giant Sabre Corp. This long-term contract ensures strong revenue visibility for FY26, even as tech budgets shrink. Coforge also acquired Rythmos Inc. for $48.7 million and TMLabs for $12.5 million, further expanding its portfolio. A 1:5 stock split was announced to boost liquidity. However, Sabre’s $5.1 billion debt raises cash collection concerns. Despite this, Coforge has outperformed peers, with its December order book reaching $1.4 billion—up 40% YoY. Tesla, Tariffs & Trump India’s sky-high auto tariffs—up to 110%—have kept foreign automakers like Tesla out, despite Elon Musk’s repeated attempts to enter the market. Now, US President Donald Trump has joined the fight, slamming India’s “unfair” tariffs and threatening retaliatory action. As trade negotiations intensify, India has begun cutting duties on luxury vehicles—a possible opening for Tesla. With Trade Minister Piyush Goyal in the US for talks, the world watches to see if India will open its doors to global carmakers or protect its domestic industry. Cancer Drug Prices Set to Fall Cancer treatment in India is notoriously expensive, with some drugs costing up to ₹2 lakh per month. That’s changing, thanks to domestic production under the government’s PLI scheme. Leading pharma firms like Sun Pharma, Cipla, and Biocon are now manufacturing key cancer drugs, significantly cutting prices. For example, Trastuzumab, once ₹70,000 per month, now costs ₹12,000. More price reductions are expected as local production scales up. The initiative not only benefits Indian patients but also strengthens India’s role as the “pharmacy of the world,” with exports to South America and Africa. Rupee Rises Amid Market Rally The rupee strengthened by 19 paise to close at 87.00 against the US dollar, supported by a rally in domestic equities, a weaker dollar, and falling crude oil prices. Volatility remained high, with the currency fluctuating between 86.93 and 87.20. Meanwhile, the dollar index slipped 0.79% amid Trump’s escalating tariff moves. Brent crude also declined 0.75% to $70.51 per barrel. Markets responded positively, with the Sensex surging 740 points to 73,730 and the Nifty rising 255 points to 22,337. However, FII outflows and ongoing trade uncertainties could limit further rupee gains.

It's Wednesday, March 5th, 2025. This is Nelson John, let's get started.  India’s Steel Industry Faces Tariff Fallout India’s steel industry was on a growth path—until US tariffs disrupted global trade flows. With Washington slapping 25% tariffs on steel from Mexico and Canada and doubling duties on Chinese imports, China’s steel exports to the US have become unviable. This surplus steel now threatens to flood India, driving prices down and squeezing margins. “India becomes the natural target for Chinese steel at the worst possible time,” warns Karan Pahuja of ISSDA. While some see opportunity—like Abhyuday Jindal of Jindal Stainless, who notes that Indian exports to the US may gain—others worry that surplus steel from Korea and Japan could also hit domestic markets. The industry is now looking to the Indian government for protective measures. BSE Stock Tumbles Amid SEBI Proposal—But Is Panic Justified? BSE shares plunged 20% after SEBI’s February 24 consultation paper raised concerns over trading volumes. At issue is SEBI’s plan to change how open interest is calculated in index derivatives, shifting to a delta-based method to reduce systemic risks. But fears may be overblown—SEBI’s own data shows that in 89% of cases last November, the proposed limits wouldn’t have been breached. Additionally, SEBI’s move to restrict derivatives to broader indices aims to prevent manipulation, but exchanges could tweak index compositions to comply. With single-stock derivatives also facing new limits, analysts believe only low-liquidity stocks will be affected. After four days of declines, BSE shares rebounded 2%, signaling investors are reassessing the panic. SEBI’s ‘Mitra’ Helps Investors Recover Forgotten Mutual Funds Millions of old mutual fund investments remain unclaimed, particularly those opened before PAN was mandatory in 2006. SEBI’s new digital assistant, Mitra, developed by KFin Technologies and CAMS, aims to fix this. Investors can visit MFcentral.com, enter their details (beyond just PAN), and track down inactive folios. While verification remains a challenge for accounts with outdated contact details, experts see Mitra as a game-changer. “It’s a much-needed tool to consolidate scattered investments,” says Abhishek Kumar of SahajMoney. Still in beta, Mitra marks SEBI’s latest effort to safeguard investor wealth and modernize financial tracking. Adani Wilmar Expands Into Packaged Foods With ₹603 Crore Deal Adani Wilmar, known for its Fortune and Kohinoor brands, is strengthening its foothold in Indian kitchens. The company is acquiring G.D. Foods—makers of Tops ketchup and noodles—for ₹603 crore as part of its ₹1,000 crore push into packaged foods. The deal gives Adani Wilmar access to a range of processed products and a retail presence in 150,000 stores across North India. MD Angshu Mallick emphasized their commitment to scaling Tops, positioning it alongside FMCG giants like Marico, ITC, and Tata Consumer. With this acquisition, Adani Wilmar aims to turn Tops into a household staple. India’s IT Giants Face Growth Uncertainty Amid US Banking Slowdown India’s IT heavyweights—TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra—are entering uncertain territory. US banks, their largest clients, are pausing tech investments due to inflation worries and trade tensions. JM Financial’s Abhishek Kumar warns, “Uncertainty has crept in… Trade war seems imminent.” Banking contributes nearly a third of revenues for these IT firms, meaning any spending cuts could hit growth. Adding to concerns, Capgemini forecasts zero organic growth this year, signaling global headwinds. Kotak analysts expect FY26 to be marginally better than FY25 but still below pre-pandemic levels, with weak discretionary spending and AI-driven pricing pressures weighing on the sector. Nasscom predicts IT revenue will cross $300 billion next year, but analysts caution that achieving this won’t be easy amid economic challenges.

It's Tuesday, March 4th, 2025. This is Nelson John, let's get started. India’s Motor Insurance Crisis For years, third-party motor insurance in India was a predictable business, but premium rates have been frozen for nearly three years, even as claims and inflation surged. As a result, underwriting losses are mounting. While some experts call for a 20% premium hike, others argue for better provisioning. With insurers struggling and India’s “Insurance for All” vision at stake, the big question is—will regulators step in before insurers pull back? Paytm’s ₹611 Crore Regulatory Setback Once a fintech darling, Paytm now faces a regulatory storm. The Enforcement Directorate has issued a ₹611 crore FEMA violation notice, alleging improper foreign investments between 2015-2019. Paytm disputes the claims, saying it didn’t own the subsidiaries in question at the time. While its stock dipped 4%, it rebounded by close. Can Paytm navigate this crisis, or is more turbulence ahead? IDBI Bank’s $143.7 Million Legal Victory IDBI Bank won a UK court ruling over a $67 million loan default tied to former Aircel promoter C. Sivasankaran. The court deemed a “letter of comfort” legally binding, but enforcing the judgment in India could prove challenging. With potential delays from appeals and insolvency proceedings, IDBI may need to explore aggressive legal options to recover its dues. India’s Shift from Two-Wheelers to Used Cars As incomes rise, more Indians are moving from two-wheelers to cars—but many are choosing second-hand vehicles. Used car sales are booming, fueled by certified pre-owned programs and easier financing. Passenger vehicles now make up 17.7% of total vehicle sales, up from 12.9% in 2018-19. By 2028, the used car market is expected to double to $80 billion. Google & HP’s 3D Video Revolution Tired of lifeless video calls? Google and HP’s Project Starline promises hyper-realistic 3D meetings—no headsets required. Using AI, lightfield displays, and six-camera setups, it makes virtual interactions feel physical. Research shows users are more engaged and less fatigued. While scaling the tech affordably remains a challenge, Starline is redefining remote collaboration. The question is—how soon will it reach the masses?

Tech Leaders Push Longer Workweeks: Brin Advocates 60-Hour Grind for AI Race Google co-founder Sergey Brin is urging employees to work 60-hour weeks, believing it’s crucial for winning the race toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). His stance aligns with Infosys’ Narayana Murthy, who suggested 70-hour workweeks for young Indians, and L&T’s SN Subrahmanyan, who went even further with 90-hour weeks. In an internal memo, Brin stressed that with OpenAI and Microsoft closing in, Google must double down on effort. He encouraged engineers to use the company’s AI models for coding efficiency, reinforcing the message that AI’s future won’t wait. But will employees embrace this relentless work culture? Adani Eyes U.S. Expansion Amid Legal Woes Despite bribery allegations, Adani Group is reviving plans to invest in U.S. infrastructure, including nuclear power, utilities, and an East Coast port. Founder Gautam Adani faces accusations of bribing Indian officials to secure power deals, while the U.S. SEC is investigating a $265 million fraud scheme involving his nephew, Sagar Adani. The group denies the charges and is exploring legal options. Adani has pledged $10 billion toward U.S. energy security, potentially creating 15,000 jobs, banking on Trump’s pro-energy policies. This isn’t its first U.S. venture—the group previously considered Texas petrochemical investments. However, with mounting legal scrutiny, its American ambitions face uncertainty. India’s Semiconductor Push: A Slow Climb Up the Value Chain India’s $10 billion semiconductor Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, launched in 2021, signals a long-term ambition to build a Silicon Valley-like ecosystem. Semiconductor manufacturing is capital-intensive, with a single fab costing up to $20 billion. Countries like Taiwan and South Korea dominate through subsidies, tech transfers, and strategic alliances—tactics India has been slower to adopt. So far, India has focused on the assembly, testing, and packaging (ATP) segment, with actual payouts totaling just $2 billion since 2023. Meanwhile, semiconductor imports have shifted away from China, with Taiwan and South Korea now supplying nearly a third of India’s chips. With the U.S. restricting tech transfers to China, India has a unique opportunity to move up the value chain. But will global players bet big on India? That remains the billion-dollar question. Bitcoin vs. Gold: One Soars, the Other Stumbles Bitcoin and gold, often compared as stores of value, are charting very different paths. Since peaking at $109,000 in January, Bitcoin has plunged 24%, while gold has climbed nearly 8%. The reason? Market sentiment. Bitcoin behaves like a speculative asset, swayed by AI spending trends, tariffs, and Trump’s unpredictable policies, which have triggered a broader market pullback. In contrast, gold benefits from central bank purchases and geopolitical instability. Analyst Eric Wallerstein predicts gold could reach $4,000 by the decade’s end. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile—BlackRock estimates its annual price swings at 50%, far above gold’s 15%. As uncertainty looms, investors are opting for the stability of gold, leaving Bitcoin in pursuit of reliability.

NBFCs Get a Boost from RBI Policy Shift India’s non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are set to benefit from RBI’s decision to lower risk-weights on bank lending to NBFCs from 125% to 100% starting April 1. This makes funding cheaper and more accessible, easing liquidity constraints that had slowed bank lending to NBFCs to 6.7% in Dec 2024 (half the previous year’s rate). Key beneficiaries include M&M Financial and Cholamandalam Investment, which rely on banks for nearly 50% of their borrowings. Meanwhile, Bajaj Finance and Shriram Finance (less dependent on banks) may see a smaller impact. However, asset quality remains a concern. M&M Financial’s bad loans rose to 2% in Q3FY25, pushing its stock down 3% over the past year, while Cholamandalam, with stronger financials (21.6% RoE), saw its stock rise 30%. Investors remain cautious—Cholamandalam trades at 3.9x FY26 book value, while M&M Financial lags at 1.6x. The big question: Will NBFCs pass on the cost benefits to customers, and will this policy shift be enough to revive growth? UltraTech Cement’s C&W Entry Rattles the Market UltraTech Cement’s ₹1,800 crore foray into the cables & wires (C&W) industry has triggered sharp stock declines in Polycab, KEI, Havells, RR Kabel, and Finolex Cables (5-20%). The move draws parallels with Grasim’s entry into paints, which eroded valuations of incumbents. Unlike paints (an oligopoly), C&W is fragmented, making market share gains difficult. UltraTech lacks a strong distribution network, adding to execution challenges. With existing players already expanding capacity, overcapacity risks loom. If UltraTech pursues aggressive pricing, margins could suffer. Analysts estimate UltraTech could capture 5-7% of the market by FY29 (projected industry size: ₹1.3 trillion). Interestingly, UltraTech’s own stock fell 5%, as investors question its capital allocation strategy—cement or diversification? Amazon Unveils First Quantum Computing Chip, Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has launched Ocelot, its first quantum computing chip, aimed at reducing error rates by 90%. This marks a key step toward practical quantum computing, a field dominated by Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. Microsoft recently claimed a breakthrough in quantum matter, while Google’s Willow chip tackled error correction in December. Amazon’s approach mirrors Google’s focus on superconducting quantum circuits, while Microsoft takes a different route. Ocelot is still a prototype, not a full system. While quantum computers promise massive computational power for applications like drug discovery and cybersecurity, commercial viability remains years—if not a decade—away. Analysts call this an advancement, not a breakthrough, but note that Amazon’s new method for error correction could help it catch up. Beyond hardware, Amazon is also expanding its quantum services, including its Braket cloud platform and business advisory programs. The road to quantum supremacy remains long, but Amazon is moving closer. Lodha Family Feud Intensifies Over Brand Name Manju Lodha, matriarch of the Lodha real estate empire, has intervened in the legal battle between brothers Abhishek and Abhinandan Lodha, stating that neither can claim rights over the other’s business. The dispute stems from a 2017 family agreement that split the empire. Abhishek leads Macrotech Developers (₹1.19 trillion market cap), while Abhinandan launched The House of Abhinandan Lodha after exiting the family business in 2015. Macrotech took legal action in January to prevent Abhinandan from using the Lodha name, citing brand confusion. With the next Bombay High Court hearing on March 21, the battle over legacy and business identity continues.

It's Thursday, February 27th, 2025. This is Nelson John, let's get started. India is in a fierce race to attract investments, with at least 10 states holding investor summits in the past three months. Rajasthan leads with ₹35 trillion in MoUs, followed by Odisha at ₹16.73 trillion and Karnataka at ₹10.27 trillion. Even states with weaker industrial bases, like Bihar and Kerala, secured commitments worth ₹1.81 trillion and ₹1.53 trillion, respectively. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, several states pitched for global investments, contributing to India’s reported ₹20 trillion haul. The real challenge? Converting these commitments into actual investments. Even a 50% realization rate would be a success, experts say. Some states have set up tracking committees, but concerns remain that these summits merely shift investments between states rather than drawing fresh capital. Ultimately, execution—through regulatory ease, infrastructure, and political stability—will determine the success of India’s investment push. The tobacco industry is grappling with rising leaf prices, squeezing margins for cigarette makers like ITC, which saw a 211 basis-point drop in cigarette EBITDA margin in Q3 FY25. While cigarette sales remain stable, illicit trade still holds 25% of the market. Godfrey Phillips, aided by Marlboro’s rising popularity, defied trends with a 440 basis-point increase in operating profit margin to 22.6%. However, speculation of a GST hike to 40% raises concerns of a shift back to illicit trade. With the compensation cess ending in 2026, the government may adjust taxes, keeping tobacco firms on edge. India’s small-cap mutual funds are facing liquidity risks as redemption periods stretch. SEBI stress tests reveal that top funds now need over 50 days to liquidate half their portfolios, up from just 10-15 days a year ago. Larger fund sizes and rapid inflows are forcing managers to diversify into mid- and large-cap stocks. Many funds have adopted ‘soft close’ strategies to limit new inflows. Despite concerns, investor enthusiasm remains strong, but analysts caution against overexposure to small caps due to heightened market risks. Vedanta Ltd. has secured approval for its demerger into five independent companies, aiming to unlock value for investors. The restructuring, expected by Q1 FY26, includes: • Vedanta Aluminium – A global aluminum player • Vedanta Oil & Gas – India’s top private crude oil producer • Vedanta Power – A major electricity generator • Vedanta Iron & Steel – Focused on ferrous products • Vedanta Ltd. – Retaining zinc, silver, and emerging ventures Shareholders will receive stakes in each new entity. Vedanta posted strong Q3 FY24 results, with revenue up 10% YoY to ₹385.3 billion and net profit surging 76% to ₹35.5 billion. The demerger aims to streamline operations and attract sector-focused investors. India is pushing beyond generics to become a pharma innovation hub, launching a ₹5,000 crore fund under the PRIP scheme to boost R&D in drug discovery, medtech, and stem cell therapy. Expressions of interest will open in March, with bids invited in April. The government has allocated ₹4,250 crore for industrial research, offering startups up to ₹1 crore and larger firms ₹100-125 crore per project. With India’s R&D spend at just $3 billion annually—far behind the U.S. ($50-60 billion) and China ($15-20 billion)—this initiative aims to bridge the gap. The plan includes Centres of Excellence (CoEs) across seven pharma institutes, focusing on biopharmaceuticals, biosimilars, stem cell therapies, and antimicrobial resistance. Experts say while funding is crucial, regulatory reforms and stronger public-private collaboration will be key to India’s success in pharma innovation.

CIE Automotive India Faces European Slowdown CIE Automotive India is struggling with weak European sales, which dragged down its Q4 FY24 EBITDA margin by 43 basis points to 14.2%. European revenue fell 22%, hit by a 37.5% drop in commercial vehicle sales and 10% decline in light vehicles. Cost-cutting measures have been implemented, but a turnaround is expected only in H2 2025. Meanwhile, India operations grew 2%, with a focus on high-margin businesses like AEL and Billforge. CIE holds a ₹1,000 crore order book, with 25% linked to EV components. However, the stock is down 16% in 2025, and analysts have trimmed earnings forecasts due to weak demand. Larisa Hotels Expands Post-Merger After merging with AM Hotel Kollection, Larisa Hotels is expanding into metro, tier-II, and religious tourism markets under three brands. Recent deals include a 90-room hotel in Tirupati and another in Vrindavan. With 26 properties and ₹100 crore revenue, Larisa is shifting to professional hotel management and eyeing international expansion. India’s branded hotel inventory is set to cross 300,000 rooms by 2029, driven by business travel and religious tourism. Nvidia’s Rollercoaster Start to 2025 Despite a $600 billion market wipeout in January, Nvidia has rebounded, down just 3% YTD. Retail investors remain bullish, pumping $5.7 billion into the stock this year. Traders are betting on a 9% post-earnings swing, with analysts expecting 59% profit growth and 72% revenue jump. Nvidia remains a key AI stock, reinforcing investor confidence. UPI Goes Global India’s UPI payments system is expanding internationally, allowing users to pay abroad seamlessly. Countries like UAE, Singapore, Sri Lanka, France, and Nepal have integrated UPI, removing the need for forex cards or conversion charges. This move benefits both Indian travelers and foreign businesses, positioning UPI as a game-changer in global payments. Bengaluru Parents Struggle with Rising School Fees Private school fees in Bengaluru are surging 10-15% annually, with some schools hiking fees by 30%. Parents are struggling with rising tuition, textbook, and transport costs, while salary increments lag at just 2-3%. Karnataka’s Education Minister admits limited control, but parents are demanding tighter regulations to curb excessive hikes.

Apple’s $500 Billion U.S. Investment Apple is making its largest financial commitment, pledging over $500 billion in the U.S. over four years to boost AI, silicon engineering, software, and R&D, creating 20,000 jobs. A key project is a Houston manufacturing facility assembling AI servers, set to open in 2026. Apple is also launching a Manufacturing Academy in Detroit to advance production techniques. This move follows Donald Trump’s claim that Apple planned a major U.S. investment. With a supply chain spanning 24 silicon facilities across 12 states, Apple’s investment solidifies its role in shaping American tech innovation. Mankind Pharma’s Obesity Drug Bet Mankind Pharma is set to enter the $100 billion anti-obesity drug market, eyeing Semaglutide—the key ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy—whose patent expires in 2026. It joins Dr. Reddy’s, Natco Pharma, and Sun Pharma in the race to launch generic GLP-1 drugs. Given the complexity of development, Indian firms, including Mankind, will likely rely on third-party collaborations while leveraging strong branding. Mankind is expanding into chronic and specialty therapies, growing its chronic segment from 20.4% in FY15 to 35.5% in FY24. As competition intensifies, the company aims to carve out a space in the lucrative weight-loss segment. Infosys-Daimler AI Deal Extension Infosys is advancing discussions to extend and expand its $3 billion contract with Daimler, originally signed in 2020, adding AI tools to enhance IT services. The deal, covering network, security, SAP, and data centers, currently generates $400 million annually for Infosys. The extension, from 2028 to 2029, aligns with Infosys CEO Salil Parekh’s strategy of securing high-value, AI-driven contracts. The company’s manufacturing sector revenue has surged from $1.3 billion in FY20 to $2.8 billion in FY24. With businesses prioritizing AI, Infosys’s early renewal signals a broader shift toward AI-powered IT services. NTPC-EDF Green Energy Partnership State-run NTPC Ltd and EDF India, a subsidiary of France’s EDF, have signed a non-binding agreement for a 50:50 joint venture in pumped storage, hydro, and renewable projects across India and neighboring countries. NTPC, India’s largest power producer, is targeting 60GW renewable capacity by 2032. The company recently listed NTPC Green Energy Ltd (NGEL) to accelerate green hydrogen, methanol, and SAF investments. In January, PM Narendra Modi laid the foundation for India’s first green hydrogen hub in Andhra Pradesh, part of a ₹1.85 trillion investment plan under the National Green Hydrogen Mission. RBI Eases Withdrawal Limits for New India Cooperative Bank The RBI has allowed depositors of New India Cooperative Bank to withdraw up to ₹25,000 per account after dissolving its board over supervisory concerns. More than 50% of depositors can now withdraw their full balances, while others can access up to ₹25,000 via branches and ATMs from February 27, 2025. The bank held ₹2,436.4 crore in deposits as of March 2024, with a declining loan book and capital adequacy ratio (9.1%) below the required 10% for two years. RBI assured depositors it is closely monitoring the situation and taking necessary measures.

It's Monday, February 24th, 2025. This is Nelson John, let's get started. IndoBevs Bets Big on Innovation IndoBevs, the maker of Bro Code wine coolers, aims to double its revenue to ₹700 crore by FY26. The company is banking on innovation, launching a herbal liqueur, Bonga Bonga, made with 40 herbs and botanicals, along with new whisky brands. IndoBevs, which started as a distributor in 2007, now has 15 in-house brands and exports to the UAE. It’s expanding whisky offerings with Enso, a Japanese whisky bottled locally, and Wingman, a premium blended malt launching in March 2025. With India’s alcohol market growing at 3.5% annually, IndoBevs is ramping up production, eyeing 2.5 million cases in sales by FY27. Buffett’s Record Cash Pile Sparks Speculation Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway hit a record $334.2 billion in cash reserves by 2024, marking 10 straight quarters of growth. While some wonder if Buffett is struggling to find good deals, he remains patient, selling stocks like Apple amid high valuations. The firm has also paused stock buybacks, letting its cash earn billions in interest. Some see this as preparation for Greg Abel’s succession, but shareholders remain confident, hoping for a major investment. Buffett reassured investors that equities remain the firm’s priority, even as Berkshire’s publicly traded holdings dropped from $354 billion to $272 billion last year, while its private businesses gained value. Agentic AI: The Next Big Bet for Indian VCs Indian venture capitalists are betting on Agentic AI, a self-learning technology that automates tasks with minimal human input. Unlike generative AI, which needs human prompts, Agentic AI adapts independently, making it attractive for industries like healthcare and finance. Startups like Innovaccer, CoRover.ai, and Atomicwork are leading the charge, backed by investors like Accel and Peak XV. The market is projected to grow from $5.1 billion today to $47.1 billion by 2030. While concerns remain over AI errors limiting adoption, businesses are increasingly shifting budgets toward automation, making AI agents a potential game-changer in enterprise operations. Indian Bank CEO’s Bold Shift to MSMEs One month into his tenure, Indian Bank CEO Binod Kumar is refocusing the lender’s strategy—expanding MSME loans while scaling back personal lending. He aims to increase MSME loans from 17% to 20% of the bank’s ₹5.2 trillion loan book in the next 2-3 years, boosting overall yield, which stood at 8.92% in Q3. While agriculture and retail loans have traditionally dominated, MSME loan growth picked up to 8.2% in Q3 from 7% a year earlier, while personal loan growth plunged 14%. The bank is prioritizing home and auto loans, with auto lending surging 48% YoY. Analysts see this as a smart risk-management move, reflected in Indian Bank’s improved net NPA ratio of 0.21%. Kumar projects 11-13% credit growth in FY25, with a continued push toward high-yielding MSME loans. India’s Green Hydrogen Ambitions India is well-positioned to lead in green hydrogen, but high production costs remain a challenge. Sushil Purohit, CEO of Gentari, says round-the-clock renewable power is key to making hydrogen competitive. With costs currently at $5/kg, adoption has been slow, despite government incentives. However, Gentari sees massive potential, given India’s abundant renewable resources and policy support. The company is developing 200 kilotonnes per annum of green hydrogen projects and holds a stake in AM Green, which aims to produce 5 million tonnes of green ammonia annually by 2030. With 6 GW of renewable energy capacity in India, Gentari is also setting up a 650 MW round-the-clock green power project to support ammonia production. As costs drop, India’s hydrogen economy could take off, reshaping industries like steel, refining, and shipping.