94: Can Mexico Build Energy Resilience on Texas Gas?

Over recent decades, Mexico has increasingly run on natural gas — shifting its economic center of gravity from domestic oil to a fuel mostly imported from Texas. What are the implications for the federal government’s goal of energy sovereignty? What does it mean for renewable energy projects and Mexico’s ability to realize a lower-carbon future? And how are whole regions being reshaped through the evolution of Mexico’s energy sector? Isidro Morales, an external fellow at the Claudio X. González Center for the U.S. and Mexico, and Adrian Duhalt, a nonresident fellow at Southern Methodist University, joined Tony Payan to explore these key themes of  their new co-edited volume, “New Geographies of Energy in Mexico” (Springer, 2026). They discussed Mexican energy sovereignty, Mexico’s reliance on Texas shale gas, and what is needed  to build energy resilience in a rapidly changing political and ecological landscapes. This conversation was recorded on Aug. 24, 2026.  Featured: Adrian Duhalt, Ph.D., https://www.smu.edu/dedman/research/institutes-and-centers/texas-mexico/people/experts  Isidro Morales, Ph.D., https://macmillan.yale.edu/latam/person/isidro-morales-moreno  Mentioned: “New Geographies of Energy in Mexico” (Springer, 2026) More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan  You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

On July 1, negotiators will begin the formal review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade pact affecting billions of dollars in commerce and tens of millions of workers across North America. What priorities will each country bring to the table, and how likely is a consensus to extend the agreement for another 16 years?   Ahead of the 2026 USMCA review, center experts David A. Gantz and Simon Lester joined the “Baker Briefing” podcast to discuss the negotiating landscape — one shaped by trade tensions, tariff policy, and evolving political dynamics across North America.   This conversation was recorded on June 22, 2026.   Listen and subscribe to “Baker Briefing” on Apple, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform.   You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Can the emerging Somos México movement unite Mexico’s political opposition? Since coming to power in 2018, the Morena party has maintained broad popular support. But under its rule, Mexico’s democratic institutions have faced growing strain. Judicial and electoral reforms, the dismantling of regulatory and oversight agencies, and the militarization of public security have increasingly concentrated power within the executive branch, while the country continues to face high levels of political violence. To date, Mexico’s opposition has struggled to effectively mobilize around these challenges. Enter Somos México, a new movement that aims to promote governance grounded in rights and the rule of law, according to one of its leaders, former Mexican Sen. Emilio Álvarez Icaza. Álvarez Icaza joined host Tony Payan to discuss democratic backsliding under Morena, the coalition behind Somos México, and the challenges of establishing a viable political party ahead of the 2027 midterm elections. Their conversation was recorded on May 15, 2026. Featured: Former Sen. Emilio Álvarez Icaza, Ph.D.: https://emilioalvarezicaza.com. More about our host, Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan. You can follow @Baker_CUSMX and @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The U.S.-Mexico border has become one of the most economically dynamic corridors in the world. But rapid population growth and urbanization have brought significant social and environmental consequences for the region that are only exacerbated by extreme drought.   John Beckham, managing director of the North American Development Bank, joined center experts Tony Payan and Ivonne Cruz to discuss the bank’s work financing sustainable infrastructure projects along the border, the politics of water scarcity, and what binational cooperation looks like in an era of climate change and industrial expansion.   This conversation was recorded on March 18, 2026.    Featured: John Beckham, https://nadbank.org/about-us/nadbank-leadership/john-beckham  Ivonne Cruz, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/ivonne-cruz This conversation was recorded on March 18, 2026. More about our host, Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan  You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The February 22, 2026 death of cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, head of Mexico’s powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has reignited debate about security, governance, and the strength of Mexico’s organized crime institutions. In the days following the operation, cartel-linked violence spread across multiple states — underscoring both the reach of organized crime and the risks of confronting it. Tony Payan, director of the Baker Institute’s Claudio X. González Center for the United States and Mexico, joins Ambassador David Satterfield to examine what Oseguera’s death could mean for Mexico’s fight against organized crime and the evolving role of the United States in that effort. They discuss the extent of U.S. involvement and coordination in the operation, the political and security pressures facing President Claudia Sheinbaum as she intensifies the government’s campaign against cartels, and what this moment may signal for the future of U.S.–Mexico security cooperation. At the center of the conversation is a critical question: Will this operation strengthen the rule of law in Mexico — or simply trigger another cycle of violence? This conversation was recorded on February 26, 2026 Listen and subscribe on your favorite platform. Mentioned in this episode: Tony Payan, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner and home to a formidable industrial base. So why has its economy continued to underperform, with GDP growth of just 0.7 percent last year? Roberto Salinas-León, president of the Mexico Business Forum and director of the Atlas Network Initiatives for Latin America, joined “México Centered” host Tony Payan to discuss the structural challenges inhibiting Mexico’s economic growth and possible ways forward, from investor uncertainty to low productivity tied to weak public investment and a large informal sector. This conversation was recorded on February 17, 2026.  Featured: Roberto Salinas-León, Ph.D.: https://www.linkedin.com/in/roberto-salinasleon/ Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan  You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The Mexican press has played a vital role in the democratization of Mexico — not just reflecting political transformations, but propelling them. That’s the history that Andrew Paxman, lays out in his new book “Mexican Watchdogs: The Rise of a Critical Press Since the 1980s.”   Paxman joined the “México Centered” podcast to discuss the various challenges to press freedom throughout modern Mexican history and what may lie ahead in the MORENA era, from the future of critical media to the growing role of the digital influencer.   Featured: Andrew Paxman, Ph.D., https://andrewpaxman.wordpress.com/about/about-me/    Mentioned in this episode: “Mexican Watchdogs: The Rise of a Critical Press Since the 1980s” This conversation was recorded on Jan. 12, 2026. More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan  You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

From the “Baker Briefing” podcast: A water crisis along the U.S.-Mexico border is growing. The 1944 Water Treaty has long guided how both nations share the Rio Grande and Colorado rivers, but climate change, drought, and growing demand are testing its limits. Guest host Tony Payan speaks with Rosario Sanchez, a senior research scientist at the Texas Water Resources Institute, and Ivonne Cruz, a research scholar at the Baker Institute, about how to rethink water cooperation for an age of scarcity — and what it will take to build a more resilient future for both countries. Featured guests: Ivonne Cruz, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/ivonne-cruz Rosario Sanchez, Ph.D., https://twri.tamu.edu/rosario-sanchez/   Mentioned in this episode: Mexico Country Outlook 2026, Rice University’s Baker Institute, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/mexico-country-outlook-2026 More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Political cartoons serve as a powerful visual commentary on major figures, events, and issues. Paco Calderón, a cartoonist who has documented much of Mexico's political and social landscape, joined "México Centered" to discuss his work and approach. More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. Follow @BakerInstMexico on X, LinkedIn, and Bluesky. Subscribe to “US-Mexico Update,” our monthly newsletter, at bakerinstitute.org/newsletters.

Each year, hundreds of thousands of cars are imported illegally into Mexico from the United States. These unregistered “chocolate cars” — a play on the word “chueco,” which means “crooked” in Spanish — not only crowd out the national light vehicle market, but often fail to meet pollution and safety standards and can be used in serious crimes. The used car industry in the U.S. is partially responsible for allowing the vehicles to enter Mexico at extremely low prices. But the Mexican government also contributes to the influx by occasionally legalizing their circulation. A regularization program for used imported vehicles was recently extended to 2026 in the final days of the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration. Guillermo Rosales Zárate, executive director of the Mexican Association of Dealerships (AMDA) and Juan Vega Gómez, a senior researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), joined Tony Payan on “México Centered” to explore the chocolate car phenomenon and the black and gray markets that emerge along the U.S.-Mexico border in the absence of critical binational coordination. This conversation was recorded on July 22, 2025. Featured guests: Guillermo Rosales Zárate, https://www.linkedin.com/in/guillermo-rosales-zárate-20258b19a/  Juan Vega Gómez, https://www.juanvegagomez.com/  More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.