US election: "A model doesn't spend all day on Twitter"

Donald Trump's return to the US presidency will accelerate the EU's slow-motion fiscal, security, and competitiveness crises.Trump tariffs and the union's response are “going to hurt Europe either way,” says Pepijn Bergsen, a European policy analyst at Medley Advisors. Not only will there be a hit to demand for European (especially German) exports to the US, he says, but the “Chinese exports that are likely to be diverted to Europe … will weigh on price pressures in Europe as well”.In this podcast, Bergsen and colleague Tim Jones discuss the immediate stress test posed by a second Trump term but explore his catalysing effect on national defence spending, military and reconstruction commitments in Ukraine, and EU expansion.  

Since Donald Trump regained the US presidency on 5 November, bond, stock, and currency markets have all repriced yet their direction is unclear. To assess what this repricing says about the revised outlook for global growth, inflation, and fiscal and monetary policy, Medley Advisors brought together three in-house market analysts: Nick Stadtmiller, Dan Schwartz, and Phil Tyson. "The Trump policy mix adds a significant overhang to what was already a pretty fraught situation and one that's likely to be persistent," says Dan Schwartz. "I think that's what we're seeing unfold ... Certainly yields have moved up but rates markets have been choppy and we've seen big rallies ... yet the dollar's barely budging".

In this final podcast in Medley Advisors’ three-part series about the US election, Madelynn Einhorn talks to Nathan Gonzalez about polls, models, and forward indicators to monitor on 5-6 November. Nathan Gonzalez is the editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of federal and state campaigns. A 14-year ABC News Election Night Decision Desk veteran, he is a regular expert guest on NBC's Meet the Press, C-Span’s Washington Journal, and Fox News. Although the polls say this race will be as close as the notorious 2000 election, they only need to be slightly off to deliver either presidential nominee a quick and decisive victory, he says. “If one candidate has just a swing of … it doesn't take four or five, it takes two or three percentage points in one direction and someone could win all seven [swing states]. And that will feel like an electoral-college landslide even though, by the numbers, it's still going to be considered close”.

With the most consequential US election in decades looming, Medley Advisors are releasing three discussions between Madelynn Einhorn and renowned electoral experts. In this podcast, Madelynn asks the big question going into 5 November: can we trust the polls? After all, in 2020, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 8 points but won by only 4.5 and by just 43,000 votes across three states. What went wrong?To answer these questions, she spoke to Michael Bailey, professor of American government at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University and author of Polling at a Crossroads."The basic problem is that, within the demographic group, you get a non-representative sample," he says. "You just do, because they're non-representative in the sense that they're willing to talk to pollsters versus everyone else". To obtain a 4,000-respondent sample for its March 2024 battleground-states poll, the New York Times had to try 400,000 people. "The people who answered that poll, in layman's terms, they're weird, right?"

With the most consequential US election in decades looming, Medley Advisors are releasing three discussions between Madelynn Einhorn and three renowned electoral-data experts to consider the outcome. In this podcast, Madelynn talks to Lakshya Jain - the co-founder of the Split Ticket election-analysis site. A machine-learning engineer by training, Lakshya Jain (and his Split Ticket colleagues) burst onto the election-prediction scene during the 2022 midterms as the head of a new generation of political-data analysts."The wisdom of the crowd is not exactly a fully quantitative approach," he says. "A model doesn't spend all day on Twitter. It doesn't react to news. It doesn't react to insiders panicking and whatnot ... Betting markets are more influenced by news events and narratives about the vibe of the race, whereas models are not". 

A four-month decline in commodity prices until mid-September, a chunky opening interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and a substantial Chinese monetary ease have raised concerns that a marked global slowdown is underway. Are there early signs of this in the energy and tech markets?To answer this question, Earl Han, the Head of Medley Advisors, brought together Sung Soo Han and and Kitt Haines. Dr. Han is the CTO of Kolon Group and formerly head of research at Samsung and LG Electronics. Kitt Haines is the Global Crude Lead for Energy Aspects.

Mario Draghi has acquired such mythical status that it was little surprise when his report on “the future of European competitiveness” captured so much media and market attention.Yet, although the report put together by the former European Central Bank president and Italian prime minister is comprehensive and ambitious, it is only a blueprint. For any of it to be implemented requires the kind of political will and policy coordination that only emerge in the EU at times of acute crisis.Tim Jones and Pepijn Bergsen from Medley Advisors' European team discuss the report and what, if anything, will happen to it next. 

On 10 September, incumbent US Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will meet for their first (and maybe only) pre-election debate.In this Medley Advisors podcast, Tim Jones asks Samer Mosis, Madelynn Einhorn, and Michael Redmond for their pre-debate takes on the election and its policy implications.Before joining Energy Aspects as Head of Fundamentals in April, Samer Mosis worked in the White House on the National Security Council as Director for Energy Markets and, before that, as an economist in the Treasury Department.Michael Redmond is Medley's US macro policy analyst and "Fed watcher", while data scientist Madelynn Einhorn designed and runs Medley's election model.

As global policymakers head for the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, all eyes are on Federal Reserve officials and any signal that their easing cycle will begin in September. In this podcast, Medley Advisors take advantage of the diverted spotlight to look at two authorities that beat the Fed to the turn: the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Andrew Besuyen asks Tim Jones and Phil Tyson: What next for Europe's two big central banks?

Since January, the Brazilian real has lost 15% of its value against the dollar as left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) publicly resists public-spending cuts proposed by his own cabinet. Now, in the wake of a 15-billion-reais spending freeze unveiled by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, we bring together Mario Lima, Medley Advisors’ Brazil analyst; Fernando Posadas, head of Latin America; and Ignacio Labaqui, regional analyst, to discuss what happens next.    Has Haddad tamed Lula? Will the currency and Brazilian assets recover? Will the central bank (Bacen) be forced to extend the pause in its easing cycle?