Our economic future is a black box

Wanna put a wager on, well, just about anything? Try a prediction market. Competing industry giants Kalshi and Polymarket both saw major investment this week, and for good reason. Though they don’t look it on paper, both function as (extremely lucrative) sports betting platforms but don't face the regulations of sports betting platforms. In this episode, we bet on where that legal loophole is headed. Plus: Expect car sales to sputter as the EV tax credit ends and tariffs drive up costs, and the case for replacing subsidized air travel with a more robust rural bus system.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The value of the U.S. dollar has been on the rise after months of decline. Political turmoil abroad has hurt other currencies, while easing rates and resilience at home have helped stabilize the dollar. However, investors are still cautious. Also in this episode: the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “birth-death” model suggests the economy may be weakening, silver prices surpass a 45-year record, and Delta posts solid Q3 results by catering to the upper class.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Know how the government shutdown put the kibosh on federal data distribution, like last week’s cancelled September jobs report? Well experts haven’t just had a tough week of interpreting this economy — they’ve had a tough year. In this episode, the Trump administration’s policies have uniquely muddied traditional economic forecasting. Plus: Adjustable-rate mortgages grow in popularity, the food and beverage industry adapts to GLP-1 proliferation, and an American furniture manufacturer discusses Trump’s tariffs.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The federal government shutdown drags on this week, leaving a labor data vacuum. Private firms are hoping to fill the gap with their own data sets — some are even offering ‘em for free. Unfortunately, that private data is narrower and less comprehensive than typical BLS reports. Also in this episode: The popularity of all-cash home sales, the unique risks and boons AI presents for Indian Country, and the vital role of equipment auctions for small contractors.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

OpenAI announced it will invest big time in chipmaker AMD, potentially in exchange for a stake in the firm. As AI investment has ramped up, similar deals have become common. Do these partnerships signal a strengthening sector? Or are they a symptom of an AI bubble headed toward a burst? Also in this episode: Regional banks merge under Trump appointees’ relaxed regulatory rule, retailers are optimistic about the upcoming holiday shopping season, and Houston’s housing market experiences knock-on effects of deportation duress.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The gap between how high-income and low-income Americans are faring in this economy is growing. One example? Fast food restaurants are struggling while sit-down joints that cater to wealthier customers are A-OK. Also in this episode: “Every Screen on the Planet” author Emily Baker-White talks geopolitics behind the U.S.-China TikTok deal and a Wyoming solar panel company preps for the end of federal subsidies for residential installation.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The U.S. is on track for the largest number of announced layoffs since 2020. Yay us! (Kidding.) We can thank a combination of federal cuts and their ripple effects, an uncertain trade environment, and AI experimentation. After that, Jenny Han of “The Summer I Turned Pretty” tells Kai about her career journey from nanny and school librarian to novelist and Amazon Prime showrunner. Plus: recession indicators, a federally-backed lithium mine and industrial outdoor storage.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The government shutdown means crucial jobs data will likely be postponed, right as the Fed weighs its next move. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, a self-described “data dog,” tells us how central bank officials plan to pivot. He also discusses Fed independence, transitory inflation, and rate cut pacing. After that: fiscal calendars vary by sector, synthetic dye removal will ripple through the food chain, and ADP reports more sour employment data.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

While the stock market appears unconcerned about potential red flags in this economy, the bond market's a bit more cautious. As Washington nears a shutdown and the labor market flags, Treasury yields are ticking down. But demand for those safer, long-term bonds hasn’t been uniform. Plus: Trump adds to existing tariffs on Canadian lumber, OpenAI wades into e-commerce waters, and Abha Bhattarai at the Washington Post talks about the “stuck economy.”Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Pending home sales rose in August, boosted by a slight drop in mortgage rates. Overall, though, the market remains sluggish — owners don't want to give up their locked-in low rates and buyers are waiting to see if rates and other costs will cool. Also in this episode: Banks respond to the Fed rate cut, retailers prepare for holiday hiring, and tech companies hope nuclear is the answer to data center energy demand.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.