Our DTC 2026 Predictions & What 2025 Got Right and Wrong

This week, the team sits down with Dylan Ander, founder of Heatmap and author of Billion Dollar Websites, to break down how modern ecommerce funnels are evolving and why many legacy playbooks are starting to crack. The conversation opens with Dylan’s perspective on AI, trust, and synthetic content, and why brands may be heading back toward more human-led, harder-to-fake creative as AI becomes table stakes.From there, they unpack why traditional DR funnels are losing effectiveness, how homepage-style and “Trojan horse” landing pages are reshaping conversion behavior, and what operators need to rethink about how users actually move through sites today. Dylan shares lessons from Billion Dollar Websites, including how ecommerce brands can borrow from info funnels to monetize beyond products and increase LTV.The episode closes with a practical look at research and CRO systems - how to structure insights, prioritize tests, and turn qualitative signals into a clear experimentation roadmap - grounding the conversation in how operators can build strategies that reflect real buyer behavior as the landscape continues to shift.Check out the previous episode with Dylan: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3iwer8FNwuwzDDnAV5X7JV?si=3NJKr9aMQLun1qWQvegSYwFind more about Dylan: https://dylanander.com/Dylan’s newsletter: https://dylanander.com/newsletterIf you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:03:47 - AI Hot Takes00:24:49 - Info Funnels & Monetizing the Customer Journey00:39:13 - Research & The Billion Dollar Data Funnel00:55:35 - Deepening Customer Feedback Analysis01:10:40 - Testing Strategy & Evolutionary RedesignPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here: https://open.spotify.com/show/5CMxGOODTOB4zRbq5oHAVm?si=b295b9c03e9a407cSubscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cqVNmmrYxgb5ohBhw8uvy?si=424001675b3b48faSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here: ⁠https://9operators.com/⁠

This week, the hosts return for their annual predictions episode, starting by revisiting their 2025 forecasts and holding themselves accountable for what hit, what missed, and what changed faster than expected. From there, they transition into their 2026 predictions for DTC and eCommerce marketing, grounding each call in real performance data, platform behavior, and operator-level experience.The conversation centers on paid media and channel mix, with deep discussion on Meta’s evolving ability to drive new customer growth, AppLovin’s continued rise, renewed performance on X, and how brands should think about wallet share, prospecting vs. retargeting, and incrementality across channels. They also unpack how creative strategy and signal engineering are becoming more critical as platforms automate bidding and optimization.As the episode progresses, the discussion broadens into longer-term growth levers, including performance-driven organic social, brand awareness measurement, dynamic pricing and pre-orders, affiliate and social commerce strategies, and the growing need to connect marketing decisions with inventory, finance, and long-term brand value.A core takeaway from the episode is how operators can move beyond tactics and apply better measurement, accountability, and systems thinking heading into 2026.Watch last year's predictions episode: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3CzkMlAHp7a2elLsIWO9qJ?si=wqbUJI_3QWqFLlOb5vN8awIf you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:04:33 - Reviewing 2025 Predictions00:18:58 - Brand Tracking and Awareness00:38:41 - AppLovin and Channel Predictions00:57:14 - Database Design and Data Fragmentation01:16:46 - AI Infrastructure and DocumentationPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week, we’re joined by Liz Anthony, Chief of Staff at Halfdays, the fast-growing women’s outdoor apparel brand redefining performance skiwear. Liz breaks down how Halfdays balances brand and performance marketing to scale a highly seasonal DTC business, including the role of founder-led content, creative diversity, and standout collaborations like HOKA in driving Q4 momentum.From there, the group digs into how the Chief of Staff role acts as a force multiplier across marketing, product, and strategy - pulling from Liz’s consulting background to explore how strong operators create leverage in fast-moving brands.We wrap with a collaborative discussion on KPI ownership, dashboards, and forecasting, covering how teams use simple tools like Google Sheets to track leading indicators, align cross-functional teams, and connect marketing execution to real business outcomes.If you’re scaling a seasonal brand, building cross-functional clarity, or trying to connect brand moments to measurable growth, this episode is packed with practical insight.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Find out more about the Halfdays brand in another MOperators Episode: How Halfdays Turned Community into a Growth Engine - with CEO Ariana FerwerdaChapters:00:00:00 – Introducing Liz and Halfdays’ Brand Story00:03:10 – Finding Product-Market Fit in Women’s Ski Wear00:08:00 – Expanding Beyond Ski: Year-Round and Omnichannel Growth00:13:30 – Defining “Her”: Core Customer, Persona, and Positioning00:19:00 – Chief of Staff Role: KPIs, Strategy, and Cross-Functional Glue00:24:10 – Liz’s Operator Background and Translating Consulting Skills to DTC00:30:20 – Building the Team, Ownership Culture, and Management Style00:36:20 – Q4 and Black Friday: Hoka Collab, List Growth, and Demand00:44:30 – Content Engine, Community, and Always-On Brand Marketing00:52:30 – Channel Mix, Out-of-Home Bets, and Retargeting Strategy01:01:00 – 2026 Roadmap: New Franchises, Launch “Moments,” and Playbooks01:11:30 – Data Stack, KPIs, and Using Analytics to Drive DecisionsPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here: https://9operators.com/

This week, we’re joined by Lily Comba, Founder & CEO of Superbloom, who opens up about how she got her start in influencer marketing and why she approaches influencer through a performance lens. Lily shares her journey from building in-house programs to launching Superbloom, and what she learned scaling influencer across some of the most recognizable consumer brands.From there, we go deep on measurement, attribution, and negotiations. Lily breaks down how to think about ROAS, CPA, multipliers, and code leakage, along with how she models performance upfront to negotiate smarter creator deals and build paid usage rights and whitelisting into every partnership. We talk through practical frameworks for forecasting results, setting realistic KPIs, and holding influencer partnerships accountable without burning relationships.We also dive into YouTube and channel expansion, including why YouTube is one of the most underrated influencer channels, how to negotiate effective integrations, and what longer-form creator content unlocks for both performance and brand lift. We wrap with how influencer fits into the broader media mix, common mistakes brands make when launching programs, and what operators should be focused on if they want to scale influencer the right way.If you’re trying to make influencer more measurable, negotiate better deals, and turn creator content into high-performing paid media, you’re gonna love this one.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 – Scaling Influencer Spend and Proving ROI00:03:53 – Lily’s Background and Building Super Bloom00:08:45 – From Seed Health to Launching an Agency00:13:05 – Brands, Categories, and Who Influencer Marketing Works For00:14:03 – Performance-First Influencer Programs and Service SKUs00:19:31 – Organic Influencer KPIs vs Paid Performance Metrics00:22:01 – Full-Funnel Impact, Halo Effects, and AOV Considerations00:25:16 – Discount Code Leakage and Attribution Challenges00:30:13 – Using Multipliers to Translate Influencer Performance00:34:38 – Modeling ROAS, Click-Through Rates, and Incrementality00:41:31 – Awareness vs Performance Across Different Brand Types00:47:19 – Influencer Negotiation Frameworks and Deal Structuring00:52:47 – High-AOV Products, Long Consideration Cycles, and Measurement LimitsPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here: https://9operators.com/

This week, the team breaks down what recent platform moves signal for operators heading into 2026 — starting with Shopify’s Winter Editions and the growing role of Sidekick inside the Shopify ecosystem.They discuss how tools like Sidekick are democratizing data access, reducing operational friction, and changing how lean growth teams analyze performance, build reports, and take action inside the admin.From there, the conversation shifts to BFCM performance and incrementality, with the hosts unpacking what they learned from scaling spend in steps during peak periods. They discuss where incremental gains showed up, where marginal returns began to flatten, and why short testing windows can still offer directional insight even when results are noisy.The team then reacts to and unpacks a tweet about Amazon bidding more aggressively on brand terms, using it as a jumping-off point to explore demand capture during promo periods, brand search strategy, and how branded demand is distributed across Amazon and DTC during high-intent moments.Throughout the episode, a key theme emerges: how operators should interpret signals from major platforms and translate them into proactive strategy rather than reactive tactics.The episode wraps with a candid conversation on 2026 planning, including examples like Connor Rolain’s pyramid-style goal-setting framework, org design considerations, and how growth leaders can balance short-term execution with long-term thinking.MOperators HotlineIf you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show:https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters00:00:00 – Shopify Winter Editions and the Rise of Sidekick00:06:46 – Data Democratization and AI Inside Shopify00:14:34 – Shopify Collective and Cross-Brand Merchandising00:19:03 – Black Friday Scaling Tests and Marginal ROAS00:27:27 – Brand Search Incrementality and Paid Search Myths00:32:14 – Amazon Brand Bidding and the “Amazon Tax”00:36:39 – What CMOs Must Lock Before Year-End Planning00:41:22 – Hiring Plans, Budgets, and 2026 Readiness00:46:21 – Managing Multiple Timelines Across Growth Teams00:49:38 – Strategic Filters, Objectives, and Goal-Setting FrameworksPowered byMotionhttps://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-readshttps://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AIhttps://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanelhttps://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersellhttps://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivohttps://www.rivo.io/operatorsHaushttp://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribehttps://www.youtube.com/@Operators9https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPShttps://9operators.com/

This episode is a grab-bag of highly tactical operator insights - starting with a breakdown of why Grüns’ transactional SMS and subscription flows work so well, and what smart lifecycle design looks like when you’re trying to prevent churn, drive upgrades, and increase LTV. From there, we dive into one of the most impressive brand marketing plays of the year: the Marty Supreme campaign, and why its blend of social-first world-building, memeable moments, and built-in distribution is a blueprint for modern creative strategy.We also get into the realities of TikTok Shop: how to measure it when attributed revenue looks tiny but impressions, content volume, and halo impact are massive; how better tooling and reporting can give a clearer read on its true impact; and how leading brands are already staffing the channel with dedicated affiliate managers and creator-community leads.It’s a fast-moving episode focused on subscriptions, creative, and the emerging acquisition channels operators need to understand before they hit scale.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:03:27 - Transactional SMS Marketing and Retention00:20:32 - The Marty Supreme Brand Campaign00:32:10 - The Formula for Viral Stunts00:44:15 - TikTok Shop Strategy and Measurement00:52:39 - Comfort's Affiliate Community ModelPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week, we’re joined by Richie Mashiko - Head of Beacon at Iris Finance for a full breakdown of how BFCM played out across their businesses. Together, the group recaps what actually drove performance this year, from media-mix diversification and top-of-funnel investment to traffic dynamics, conversion-rate behavior, and how different brand sizes approached Cyber Five strategy.From there, Richie walks through his forecasting philosophy - including how he builds bottoms-up financial models, how diminishing returns shape CAC and forecasting assumptions, and how finance and marketing need to stay aligned around realistic growth expectations. The group also dives into contribution margin, AMER, customer mix, and why so many brands forecast incorrectly when marketing isn’t part of the planning process.They then unpack the levers that actually make an ecommerce business profitable: cohort behavior, scaling past category saturation, interpreting flat conversion rates alongside surging traffic, and what contribution dollars really tell you. Richie shares lessons learned from She’s Birdie’s rebuild year and how smaller brands can apply the same financial discipline as companies operating at nine-figure scale.If you're trying to understand your BFCM results, build a forecast that reflects reality, or get finance and marketing speaking the same language, this episode is a must-listen.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:06:40 - BFCM recap00:24:47 - Media Mix Strategy00:41:52 - International Markets00:53:44 - FP&A Background01:07:05 - Building a ForecastPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here: https://9operators.com/

In this episode of Marketing Operators, Cody and Connor break down how growth teams are rethinking measurement heading into 2026 - especially the rising importance of brand tracking. They discuss why click-based attribution alone no longer works, how incrementality and geo tests fill in the gaps, and why tracking awareness, consideration, and “future demand” is becoming essential.Then they’re joined by Austin Santino, Client Development Manager at Tatari, and Jonathan McKenzie, Co-Founder of Turtlebox. Jonathan shares the brand’s unique origin story - four best friends building a rugged speaker for their sailboat before realizing it could become a business. Austin breaks down how Tatari has helped Turtlebox validate audiences and content through high-signal CTV testing and confidently expand into larger live-sports and linear placements. Jonathan also shares how Turtlebox is aiming to move from fast-cycling, performance-style creative toward more intentional, long-form storytelling as the brand matures.This episode delivers the frameworks, tactics, and operator-level insights you need to sharpen your measurement strategy and scale your TV investment with confidence.Tatari: https://www.tatari.tv/?utm_campaign=29640555-Operators%20Podcast%20Nov%20%2725&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=operatorsIf you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:06:32 - Implementing Brand Tracking00:20:45 - The Value of Earned Media Value (EMV)00:35:26 - Turtlebox Audio: Origin Story and Product Differentiation00:48:11 - TV Content Strategy00:58:25 - 2026 Planning and The "Small Bets" Philosophy for FoundersPowered by:Motion.https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week, the team breaks down how operators should be thinking about Q4 performance, offer strategy, and what it really takes to evolve beyond the traditional “discount + ads” playbook. We get into why some brands are rolling out first-ever sitewide promotions, how seasonal bundles create new revenue moments, and how text-to-buy flows, post-purchase upsells, and Shopify Collective can create seamless cross-brand merchandising opportunities heading into 2026.From there, we dive into one of the smoothest customer experiences we’ve seen lately: Fellow’s text-to-buy setup. We unpack why it works so well for hardware brands with natural consumable add-ons, which categories this model is best suited for, and how operators can use complementary products to create repeat pathways without relying on subscriptions.We then dive into media expansion, with the hosts discussing why there’s more opportunity than ever outside the traditional hero channels - from curated newsletter audiences to out-of-home paired with sampling and experiential moments, and the rise of street-interview content as a high-performing acquisition engine. There is so much overlooked media in the ecosystem right now, and operators who feel capped on their core platforms may be missing high-leverage arbitrage.We wrap with a discussion on identifying under-the-radar media buys, evaluating whether niche placements are worth the squeeze, and how to build a more resilient acquisition and retention engine moving into next year. If you’re expanding your media mix, pushing for higher LTV, or rethinking your Q4 strategy, this episode is packed with operator-level insights.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:17:51 - Text-to-Buy and Complementary Brand Partnerships00:35:40 - Testing Free Plus Shipping and Sample Funnels00:46:02 - Out-of-Home and Street Interviews00:58:11 - Balancing Arbitrage vs. Measurement01:08:28 - Aligning Media Investment with Attention TrendsPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

As we head into the final days before Cyber Five, this episode is all about going from daily pacing to true intraday pacing - the level of granularity operators need when every hour can swing the entire BFCM weekend. We break down how we monitor hourly revenue and ad spend across Meta, Google, and more using tools like Northbeam and Supermetrics, and how we make real-time adjustments when projections drift off target.We also get into the messy but essential stuff: how inventory, merchandising, and media-mix strategy shape bid caps, channel budgets, and how aggressively you can push during Cyber Five, including the constant tradeoff brands face between maximizing contribution margin dollars and maintaining efficiency. The hosts share real examples of scaling (and protecting efficiency), running holdout tests, understanding incremental lift, and avoiding the overspend horror stories that can tank a weekend.To wrap up, we talk through team etiquette during BFCM-who’s “on,” how to handle PTO, how the paid teams coordinate in hourly and bi-hourly check-ins, and what it takes operationally to keep a brand performing during the most high-pressure stretch of the year.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:10:52 - Intraday Revenue Pacing00:24:39 - Cyber 5 Scale-Up Tests00:39:07 - Bid Caps and Budget Strategies00:52:10 - Channel Spend Forecasting01:02:50 - Scaling Mid-Funnel CampaignsPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/