Surviving Chaos

This week in London, Mark Leonard introduced his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail and reflected on what it means to navigate a world in which old assumptions about rules-based order, power and international cooperation no longer hold.ECFR’s new weekly accompaniment podcast series “Surviving Chaos” will introduce the most interesting and controversial thinkers to explain the current period. The first episode brings together a conversation between Mark and Carl Bildt, former prime minister and former foreign minister of Sweden; Ivan Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies; and Helle Thorning-Schmidt, former prime minister of Denmark, moderated by Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator at the Financial Times.Opening the discussion, EU ambassador to the UK Pedro Serrano highlighted the importance of a strong and united Europe in defending peace, prosperity and democratic values, before the panel explored how policymakers can move from rigid grand strategies to more “artisan” approaches to power. They also considered whether the current moment represents a temporary crisis or a deeper rupture—and the impact on Europe’s security, economic model and political identity.From the future of the transatlantic relationship to the war in Ukraine, to AI surveillance and the Middle East, the discussion examined how global instability is impacting the choices facing European decision-makers. Drawing on Mark’s argument that the world is in an age of “unorder”, the speakers discussed the types of political imagination, resilience and practical action Europeans will need. The crucial question: How can Europe navigate chaos?Mark Leonard’s book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail is now available in all bookstores and online.This episode will also be published on the EEAS website. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard speaks with Zsuzsanna Szelényi, a Hungarian politician and foreign policy specialist, about the forces behind Hungary’s historic political shift and what comes next for both the country and Europe.Together they explore how economic pressures, corruption scandals, and a newly mobilised electorate—especially younger voters—reshaped Hungary’s political landscape after 16 years. They also evaluate Magyar’s promises of reform, a reset with Europe and a more participatory role on key issues like Ukraine.What explains Orbán’s defeat? Can Magyar deliver real democratic change? And what does Hungary’s new direction mean for Europe and Ukraine?Bookshelf:Works of Zadie Smith, Ruth Ozeki and Sofi OksanenThis podcast was recorded on April 13th, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For the last few days, a set of pronouncements from the White House have filled the news regarding the war in Iran. President Donald Trump has gone from threatening to destroy an entire civilisation to negotiating a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, led by Pakistan. This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, senior associate fellow at ECFR and research fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the current state of play. What does the ceasefire mean for the future of the Middle East and for American foreign policy? How will it impact Europe, and global security more generally? And will Trump make good on his threat to withdraw from NATO? This podcast was recorded on April 9th, 2026.Bookshelf:Mother Mary Comes to Me by Arundhati RoyThe Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny by Kiran Desai Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Szymon Kardaś, senior policy fellow in ECFR's European Power programme, to unpack how war in the Middle East is reshaping Europe’s energy landscape. While Europe is not heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports directly, disruptions—especially around Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz—are pushing up global prices and intensifying competition with Asian buyers, exposing Europe’s deeper structural vulnerabilities.Together, Mark and Szymon explore the risk of renewed dependence on Russian energy, reliance on American LNG, and what this crisis reveals about Europe’s long-term energy strategy. As the conflict continues, the pressure is growing for Europe to accelerate its transition towards renewables and greater energy resilience. How exposed is Europe to the global energy fallout? What role does Qatar play in the current gas crisis? Could Europe return to Russian energy imports under pressure? And what policies are needed to reduce Europe’s long-term energy dependence?  Bookshelf Recommendation Grzegorz Braun Gram vabank by Tomasz Sommer This podcast was recorded on April 1st 2026.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme and senior policy fellow, to discuss how the war in Iran is reshaping Ukraine’s war effort. What began as cautious optimism in Kyiv has turned into concern, as American military resources—especially air-defence systems—are redirected to the Middle East, leaving Ukraine increasingly exposed to Russian attacks.Mark and Jana also explore the broader geopolitical fallout: stalled diplomacy, rising oil prices benefiting Russia and growing divisions within Europe that risk weakening support for Ukraine at a critical moment. The longer the Iran war continues, the more difficult Ukraine’s position becomes.What does the Iran war mean for Ukraine’s military position? How is US support being affected? Why does the conflict benefit Russia economically? And can Europe maintain a united stance on Ukraine?Bookshelf RecommendationRussia in 1839 by Astolphe de CustineThis podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli and to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran.This week Mark Leonard records live from ECFR’s all-staff retreat in Sofia, bringing together colleagues from across the continent to unpack European reactions to the escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. While some leaders have taken a firm stance against the war, others have shifted position and divisions are emerging across Europe.Why has Spain taken such a clear line against the conflict? How is Germany balancing its relationship with the US, Israel and Ukraine? What role is France seeking to play as a military and diplomatic actor? And how are countries like Italy and Poland navigating domestic pressures alongside their transatlantic ties?This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Aziz Alghashian, senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, Eran Etzion, former Israeli diplomat and deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council at the Pime Minister’s Office and Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme. Over the past couple of weeks, the US and Israel have continued attacking Iranian military and energy infrastructure, Iran has appointed a new Supreme Leader in Mojtaba Khamenei, oil prices have surged and Iran is targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. But amid all this activity, America’s war aims remain as unclear as ever, exacerbated by dozens of conflicting statements from President Trump and US senior officials.Together, Mark, Aziz, Eran and Ellie assess the state of the conflict in Middle East, focusing on the political climate in Iran, Israel and the Gulf states. Does Trump have a way out? Is there any path to de-escalation? For how long will the war last? And what does this mean for the Middle East—and for Europe?Bookshelf: A Kurdish Rebellion in Iran Could Be a Disaster – Ellie Geranmayeh Tomorrow is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine - Hussein Agha and Robert MalleyThis episode was recorded on March 12th 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard speaks to Raja Mohan, academic and foreign policy analyst, in a podcast episode recorded live from New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue conference. Together they explore how India views the current global moment: from the resilience of US autonomy to the diffusion of influence across emerging powers.Why has India’s relationship with the EU become more strategically important? How is New Delhi balancing ties with Beijing, Moscow and Washington while deepening economic integration with Western partners? And what role could India and Europe play together in shaping security, technology and connectivity across a wider “Indo-Mediterranean” region?This podcast was recorded on March 4 2026 in New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this emergency episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, and Cinzia Bianco, ECFR visiting fellow, to discuss the dramatic escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure.What are Trump’s war aims and does he really seek regime change? Could Iran’s political system survive this shock, or is deeper transformation underway? How are Gulf states reacting as they find themselves on the front line? And with Europe largely sidelined so far, what role could or should Europeans play in preventing further escalation?This emergency episode was recorded on Sunday afternoon, 2pm UK time, as events continue to unfold.Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so by Ellie Geranmayeh Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, negotiations are finally entering a productive phase. Mark Leonard is joined by Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, and author of the new report, “An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security”, to examine Ukraine’s security status and US foreign policy towards it. Mark and Jennifer explore her proposal that Ukraine should position itself as an “armed nonalignment” state, the future of the transatlantic alliance, and America’s National Defense Strategy.   Can Ukraine be nonaligned but also “armed to the teeth”? Could it become a porcupine that Russia cannot swallow? What should Europe and Ukraine do if future US foreign policy focuses more on the Indo-Pacific and the western hemisphere? Could Russia feasibly invade Ukraine again? And what happens if it does?  Bookshelf An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security by Jennifer Kavanagh  The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia by Jennifer and Jeremy Shapiro Season 4 of Bridgerton on Netflix  Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the “Junkyard Dogs”: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term (Part 1 of 2) by Vanity Fair  Susie Wiles Talks Epstein Files, Pete Hegseth’s War Tactics, Retribution, and More (Part 2 of 2) by Vanity Fair  This podcast was recorded on 30th January 2026  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.