The rise of election betting

President Biden’s hallmark Inflation Reduction Act set aside nearly $150 billion for various climate projects. But not all of that money has been spent, and President-elect Trump has vowed to take it back. The question, is how much money is leftover? Kimberly explains why it’s taken years to get the money out the door. Plus, we’ll unpack some gains in women’s sports and wage growth. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Carbon emissions from fossil fuels hit record highs in 2024: report” from Axios “Dreaming of snow this winter? Look up the forecast in your area.” from The Washington Post “Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024” from the Global Carbon Project “The mystery number that’s key to whether Biden’s spending survives” from Politico “Women’s baseball players could soon have a league of their own again” from AP News Tweet from The Washington Post’s Heather Long about wage growth Got a question for the hosts about the election, Trump’s next presidency and the U.S. economy? Email us at [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

COP29, the United Nations’ annual climate summit, is underway in Azerbaijan. This year’s conference is all about how the world will pay to deal with climate change. But Donald Trump’s election victory looms large over the talks. President-elect Trump could roll back United States climate policy like he did during his first term. On the show today, Gautam Jain, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, explains why climate investment won’t come to a complete halt under the next Trump administration. Plus, he weighs in on who might fill the void in global energy transition talks. Plus, the message ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods is sending Trump about the nation’s energy policy. And, how early is too early for Christmas lights? Here’s everything we talked about today: “What Trump can do to reverse US climate policy − and what he probably can’t change” from The Conversation “COP29: What are the key issues at the UN climate summit in Baku?” from Reuters “Trump Victory Leaves China Calling the Shots at COP29 Climate Negotiations” from The Wall Street Journal “Burning Questions: What are the climate wins and setbacks from the election?” from Marketplace “Exxon chief urges stability in US climate policy, knocks carbon border tariffs” from Politico We want to hear your answer to the Make Me Smart question. Leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART or email us at [email protected].  

A new report estimates global damages from extreme weather events between 2014 and 2023 at about $2 trillion, roughly in line with the 2008 financial crisis. It comes as world leaders meet at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Cop29, under the shadow of President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to roll back environmental standards. We’ll get into what it all might mean for climate policy here at home. Plus, is economic growth abroad in Trump’s hands? Then, we’ll smile at Mattel’s mea culpa for a misprint on its new “Wicked” toys. Here’s everything we talked about today: “‘Science is still science’: US still committed to climate fight despite Trump’s win, Podesta says at COP29” from Politico “A shadow ‘financial crisis’ has cost the world $2 trillion” from CNN “Rest of World’s Growth Is at Trump’s Mercy” from The Wall Street Journal “FDA to Finally Ban Controversial Ingredient in Popular Decongestants” from ScienceAlert “Mattel Apologizes for Porn Site Misprint on ‘Wicked’ Toy Packaging” from The Wall Street Journal Got a question for the hosts about the election, Trump’s next presidency and the U.S. economy? Email us at [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

The richest man in the world just became even more influential after pouring millions into former President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign. Tesla shares soared after Trump’s win and CEO Elon Musk was already invited to join a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. We’ll get into what the cozy relationship between Trump and Musk could mean for the U.S. economy and national security. And, we’ll talk about the many Americans who are looking to move abroad in the face of the U.S. election results. Plus, we’ll play a round of Half Full/Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Scoop: Elon Musk joined Trump’s call with Zelensky” from Axios “Tesla hits $1 trillion market cap as stock rallies after Trump win” from CNBC “Exhausted by the Election, Some Americans Are Catching Flights Abroad” from The New York Times “American interest in Canadian citizenship is spiking again after Trump’s victory” from Politico “Nvidia, Sherwin-Williams to replace Intel, Dow on Dow Jones” from Marketplace “Steven Madden C.E.O. Says It Is Moving Production Out of China” from The New York Times “Painting by A.I.-Powered Robot Sells for $1.1 Million” from The New York Times “Pad Thai, Spring Rolls and a Side of Peacock? Why Streamers Are Teaming Up With Delivery Apps” from The Hollywood Reporter “Should cars still have AM radios? Congress might require them.” from Marketplace Got a question for the hosts about the election, Trump’s next presidency and the U.S. economy? Email us at [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

Today we’re handing the microphone over to our listeners to tell us how they’re reacting to the outcome of this week’s presidential election. We’ll hear their concerns about the future of transgender health care, the long-term economic impact of a second Trump presidency and why — even though it can be daunting — we can all make change if we start in our local communities. Plus, is this our Brexit moment? Here’s everything we talked about today: “Want to protect our democracy? Start here!” from our episode with lawyer and author Emily Amick “For trans people reliant on federal programs, this election could change everything” from 19th News “How to get your elected officials to listen to you” from Vox “5 ways Trump’s next presidency could affect the U.S. economy — and your money” from CBS News Got a question for the hosts about the election, Trump’s next presidency and the U.S. economy? Email us at [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

The Democratic Party has traditionally been pro-union and relied on the support of the working class. But the results of yesterday’s election show the tide may be turning. We’ll get into how President-elect Trump enamored these voters to win another term in the White House and how we can expect a new Trump administration to shake up the economy and defy democratic norms. Plus, we’ll talk about some of the trailblazers elected to Congress and state offices. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Who is Bernie Moreno, Ohio’s new GOP senator-elect and crypto champion?” from The Washington Post “Sarah McBride becomes the first out transgender person elected to Congress” from NBC News “How markets are responding to the prospect of another Trump presidency” from Marketplace “Black women notch historic Senate wins in an election year defined by potential firsts” from AP News “Meet the history-makers of the 2024 elections” from CNN Politics “How could the return of Trump-era ‘Schedule F’ job appointments reshape the federal workforce?” from Marketplace “Donald Trump Has Tools to Fire Powerful Financial Regulator in Term Two” from Bloomberg Send us all your thoughts, feelings and questions about the election. You can email us at [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

Today we’re talking about a breakout story of this election cycle: the rise of prediction markets and betting on elections. For the first time in a century, Americans can legally place bets on election outcomes using a platform called Kalshi. But the Commodity Futures Trading Commission warns that these markets could warp the public’s understanding of our elections if they’re treated like polls. On this Election Day episode, Cantrell Dumas of Better Markets, a financial reform advocacy group, explains how Americans are dabbling in election betting, the legal questions surrounding these prediction markets, and why he believes manipulation of these markets has the potential to sway elections. Then, we’ll dig into the history of the “I Voted” sticker and hear a perfect poem for Election Day. Plus, a listener shares what moving abroad taught them about the U.S. voting system. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Election betting is newly legal — and risks getting confused with polls” from NBC News “Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket gives Trump a 67% chance of winning but is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say” from Fortune Crypto “Cryptoverse: U.S. election speculators play the prediction markets” from Reuters “Wall Street regulator moves to ban election betting, escalating fight over new market” from Politico “The Case for Legalizing Political Betting” from the Cato Institute “How ‘I Voted’ Stickers Became an Election Day Staple” from Business Insider We want to hear your answer to the Make Me Smart question. Leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART or email us at [email protected].

Live near a yoga studio? What about a golf course? Americans may experience the economy differently based on the politics of the neighborhoods they live in. We’ll dig into new data on the relationship between political affiliation and the businesses around us. Then, we’ll talk about a new revelation in the lawsuit against Elon Musk over his controversial $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes. Plus, on this Election Day eve, we’re smiling about early turnout. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Musk PAC tells Philadelphia judge the $1 million sweepstakes winners are not chosen by chance” from The Associated Press “How Red and Blue America Shop, Eat and Live” from The New York Times “4 charts show how early voting is going in the US” from CNN We love to hear from you. Email your comments and questions to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

Campaigns for both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are trying to get ahead of the curve on election legal battles. According to The Hill, there are already over 200 voting and election cases pending across the country. We’ll get into it. Then, we’ll explain how Trump’s recent battles with CBS and ABC could signal his intention to punish broadcasters if reelected. And, how do you feel about rolling back our clocks as daylight saving time ends? That and more in a round of Half Full/Half Empty. Here’s everything we talked about today: “How Trump could weaponize the FCC against the media in a second term” from The Washington Post “Trump, Harris camps prepare to ‘go to the mattress’ in election legal battles” from The Hill “You Call That An Ad Blackout? Consultants Shrug Off Alphabet’s Post-Election Restrictions” from Campaigns & Elections We love to hear from you. Email your comments and questions to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

This Halloween, we’re looking at some new inflation data that’s got the Federal Reserve in good spirits. Its preferred inflation measure shows inflation fell to 2.1% last month, moving ever-so-closer to the Fed’s 2% target. We’ll get into why core inflation complicates the Fed’s good news. And, we’ll unpack why some Meta investors were spooked when CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company will amp up its artificial intelligence spending. Plus, Starbucks is getting a brand makeover, and the Los Angeles Dodgers pulled off a World Series win. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Meta posts Q3 earnings beat, but stock falls on heavy spending plans” from Yahoo Finance “What Today’s Inflation Data Will Mean for Next Week’s Fed Meeting” from CNBC “Inflation Cooled Further in September, PCE Index Shows” from The New York Times “7 ways Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol plans to change the coffee chain” from NBC Chicago “Los Angeles Dodgers defeat New York Yankees in five games to win World Series” from NBC News Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap. The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern.