Is freedom of navigation under threat? Part II

For years the shipping industry lamented sea blindness among the global political elite. Particularly in Europe, where shipping was more often than not ignored unless it became a pollution problem. Now, amid unprecedented geopolitical challenges, shipping is finally visible and the great powers are scrambling to bolster national interests. Shipping is once again recognised as a strategic sector. Donald Trump says that it is shipbuilding will make America Great Again. For the EU, shipping is now intrinsically linked to energy and trade security. And as byproduct of its resurgent status as a critical industry it is being namechecked in the slew of policies being pushed to light a fire under Europe’s industrial competitiveness in the face of increasingly hostile challenges from US and China, But political plans are easy enough to produce — action, and the financing to enact it, less so. So is all this political attention a window of opportunity for the industry to capitalise on and secure the conditions it needs to prosper, or is the existential crisis at the heart of Europe going to sink shipping’s prospects inside the world’s largest trading bloc?

February comes with several notable dates for the calendar, but in marine insurance the end of the month means one thing: P&I renewals. Renewals for the International Group of P&I clubs are due on February 20th every year. This was traditionally the first date the Baltic ports were free of ice, and while shipping doesn’t halt for the seasons in the same way it once did, the date has stuck. Lloyd’s List insurance editor David Osler has once again gathered executives of major P&I clubs and brokers to ask them how their renewal season went, whether they think clubs should be handing back more cash to owners and perhaps most importantly, whether the 170-year-old system can cope with an ever-more volatile industry and some hefty recent claims. Joining David this week are: Jonathan Andrews, chief executive of Steamship Mutual Tom Bowsher, chief executive of West of England Thya Kathiravel, chief underwriting officer at NorthStandard Stephen Hawke, managing director at P&I broker Lockton Ferrari

In 2020, 85 vessels were reported abandoned. In 2023, that number was 142 — a worrying increase, but nothing compared to what was to come. Because in 2024, some 310 vessels were reported as abandoned. That is a 118% increase in just 12 months, and gives 2024 the unwanted record as the worst year for seafarer abandonment, which incidentally it takes from 2023. Abandonment is not a new phenomenon by any stretch, but there has been an alarming spike in cases in the last couple of years. What are the regulatory processes when an abandonment case is reported? What happens if flag states don’t do what is required of them under the Maritime Labour Convention? And what other options are available to the industry to drive down a seemingly persistent problem for thr shipping industry? Joining Josh on the podcast this week are: Steve Trowsdale, global inspectorate co-ordinator, ITF Dr Dorota Lost-Sieminska, director of legal affairs and external relations, IMO

MONDAY February 17 kicks off the first of a crucial series of climate talks at the International Maritime Organization. There are just two intersessional working group meetings, and one Marine Environment Protection Committee left to approve regulations to bring shipping to net zero by or around 2050. Hundreds of negotiators will be working day and night to agree on some combination of a carbon price tool and a greenhouse gas fuel standard. The rules have to close the price gap between fossil and green fuels, kickstart investment in renewable supply chains, and also help poorer countries and low-lying islands cope with the costs of climate change. This has been talked about this for many years now, but 2025 is different. The IMO’s 2023 GHG Strategy requires it to approve its mid-term measures in April and adopt them in October, to then come into force by 2027. So, what can we expect? ISW-GHG is not open to the press, but it’s where much of the real political horse-trading takes place. The IMO’s 176 member states are split roughly between those in favour of a carbon levy per tonne of CO2 equivalent, combined with a green fuel standard, and those who only want a fuel standard alone. Declan Bush takes you behind the doors of the IMO ahead of an important week for the shipping industry. Joining Declan on this week’s episode are: Guy Platten, secretary general, International Chamber of Shipping Jesse Fahnestock, decarbonisation director, Global Maritime Forum

Freedom of navigation — the legal principle that states ships from any country have the right to sail freely in international waters — is under attack. It has been for some time. But a confluence of geopolitical shifts, security threats and an accelerating frequency of legal assaults are finally starting to erode a fundamental principle of the law of the sea and a pillar of modern international law. For the first time since the Cold War, maritime trade lanes have become contested zones and the rules-based order that shipping has previously relied on to protect it has started to disintegrate. And that threat is coming from multiple different vectors. A good starting point for that is what’s happening in the Baltic right now. What Denmark and the Nordic-Baltic states have said is that they would take “coordinated steps to disrupt and deter Russia’s shadow fleet”. While the language is deliberately vague, this amounts to politely requesting details of suspect ships’ insurance. If they don’t comply they risk being sanctioned, but so far none of the states are suggesting they will go further than that. For now. Geopolitical tensions are deepening and global maritime trade is being caught in the crossfire, both literally and figuratively. Trade lanes on the oceans are contested zones for the first time since the Cold War. The question is whether there is sufficient energy left amongst those backing the crumbling rules-based order to defend it.

The world economy is still globalised, at least for the moment. But superpower rivalry and the decay of global rules and norms mean that geopolitical tensions are deepening and global maritime trade is being caught in the crossfire, both literally and figuratively. Some of this is happening in plain sight. In the Red Sea, the Houthis redirected maritime trade and the combined naval forces of Europe, the US, UK and Israel were unable to convince the majority of global shipping that freedom of navigation had been maintained. In the Baltic, coastal states are publicly threatening to detain ships considered to be an environmental or security threat as a shadow-war of pipeline and cable sabotage plays out beneath the waves. Strategic choke points from the Arctic to the Panama Canal are subject to daily diplomatic spats, and harassment of merchant shipping in the Taiwan Strait, the Black Sea and the South China Sea is now considered so routine that incidents are barely reported. Behind closed doors, meanwhile, a legal and diplomatic war is being waged to redefine the very concept of international rules that allow ships to trade internationally. Trade lanes on the oceans are a contested zone for the first time since the Cold War. The very concept of freedom of navigation — a legal principle that states that ships from any country have the right to sail freely in international waters — is under attack. Over the course of a special two-part podcast Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade takes a wider look at what this means for shipping. Is freedom of navigation, a fundamental principle of the law of the sea and a pillar of modern international law, something we have just quietly given up on? Featuring: Dominick Donald, geopolitical risk analyst and adviser to the joint war risks committee at Lloyd’s Ian Ralby, chief executive of consultancy IR Consilium Kristina Siig, Professor of Maritime Law and Law of the Sea, University of Southern Denmark. Professor II of Maritime Law, Scandinavian Institute of Maritime Law, University of Oslo, Norway

Decarbonisation is perhaps the biggest issue shipping faces, and it’s unique in that it affects everyone, whatever your politics. The question we, and much of the shipping industry asks, is not whether future fuels will become viable one day, but rather which of them will win the race. Of course, we’re often told things like “we see a multi-fuel future” or “we are fuel agnostic”. But besides looking for that crystal ball we so regrettably lack, it helps to look at what’s out there today. And judging on data released by Norwegian class society DNV, what’s out there is LNG. Orders for vessels that were at least dual-fuel LNG doubled in 2024, with 264 orders placed. That’s 100 more than the next most popular alternative, methanol. LNG ships represent nearly 10% of ships on order and 26% of gross tonnage on order, about double methanol’s share. So why is LNG so far in front in the alternative fuel race? Joining Declan on the podcast are: Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonisation director, DNV Peter Keller, chairman, Sea-LNG

Over the last few weeks, we’ve brought you several episodes from our experts here at Lloyd’s List briefing you on what to expect in each respective sector in 2025. Insurance editor David Osler is rounding that series off with a look at what the marine insurance market can expect over the next 12 months. The sector was thrust into the limelight in March last year, when containership Dali allided with the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, which tragically resulted in the deaths of six construction workers. That casualty could wind up being the costliest in maritime history by the time it’s run its course though the US judicial system, and the International Group of P&I clubs is already on the hook for some serious cash. David explains how that case will affect P&I insurance moving forwards, as well as highlighting the extra capacity hitting the hull and machinery market which could drive down prices for shipowners. To listen to the rest of out ‘What to look out for series’, head to Soundcloud, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also listen to every episode of the podcast on the Lloyd’s List app.

THE geopolitical landscape changed seemingly by the hour in 2024, and 2025 has started in a similar vein. Cable cutting, new tranches of sanctions from the outgoing Biden administration and Chinese shipping giant Cosco being placed on a US Department of Defense sanctions for links to the Chinese military – all of that has happened in the first 10 days of 2025. But before all of that though, our risk and compliance experts gathered to discuss what they would be looking out for in 2025 and what you should be expecting from the year ahead. They discussed how sanctions handed down by multiple governments are attempting to control the trade of a growing dark fleet*, the increase in Automated Identification System manipulation, plus they debate whether shipping will return to the Red Sea in 2025. Joining reporter Joshua Minchin on this episode are: • Michelle Wiese Bockmann, principal analyst, Lloyd’s List • Tomer Raanan, senior maritime reporter, Lloyd’s List • Bridget Diakun, maritime risk analyst, Lloyd’s List * Lloyd’s List defines a tanker as part of the dark fleet if it is aged 15 years or over, anonymously owned and/or has a corporate structure designed to obfuscate beneficial ownership discovery, solely deployed in sanctioned oil trades, and engaged in one or more of the deceptive shipping practices outlined in US State Department guidance issued in May 2020. The figures exclude tankers tracked to government-controlled shipping entities such as Russia’s Sovcomflot, or Iran’s National Iranian Tanker Co, and those already sanctioned.

Decarbonisation is one of the most written-about topics in Lloyd’s List. Read our daily briefing on any given day and it will more than likely contain at least one story dedicated to the industry’s journey towards net zero. And there’s good reason for that too. It dominates shipping headlines and touches every corner of our industry and 2025 could be a pivotal year in shipping’s long history. Not only are there major changes to the European Union’s FuelEU and Emissions Trading System about to come into force, but many believe the world’s first international carbon levy could be agreed at the International Maritime Organization during meetings of its Marine Environment Protection Committee later this year. So, how likely is it that shipping gets a firm agreement from the IMO that carries some weight? And, if nothing is agreed, then what does the future of the regulator look like? To talk you through what could be a momentous year in securing shipping’s future, here’s multimedia editor and former sustainability editor Declan Bush, and Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief, Richard Meade.