Oil Is Falling While the War Continues. What Is the Market Pricing In?

September 17, 2026 — Oil prices are pulling back even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Zach Abraham explains why the market’s surprisingly calm reaction may be sending an important signal about what investors expect next. Zach breaks down the latest moves in oil and interest rates, why crude may be looking through the headlines toward some kind of resolution, and why the downside could become just as violent as the upside if the geopolitical picture changes quickly. He also discusses the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike, why he remains skeptical that long-term yields have peaked, and where he sees the more attractive risk-reward if rates and the dollar eventually reverse.FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLANJoin Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next. Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.comSchedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 16, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates again today. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue the bigger story may be the borrowing costs businesses still haven’t had to refinance into yet. They examine the coming refinancing cycle, why loans written in the cheap-money era may reset at dramatically higher rates, and where that pressure could begin showing up in construction, housing, small businesses and corporate credit. Zach and Chase also break down the Fed’s new economic projections, the outlook for additional rate hikes, why the historical small-cap playbook may be changing, and the latest developments in global oil flows.FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLANJoin Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next. Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.comSchedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 15, 2026 — The 10-year Treasury is back around 5%, borrowing costs are at levels not seen in nearly two decades, and Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are asking the question that usually follows: what breaks first? They examine where higher rates are already creating stress — from housing and commercial real estate to indebted small caps and AI infrastructure companies — and why a higher cost of capital may expose weaknesses that were much easier to hide when money was cheap. Zach and Chase also discuss rapidly tightening oil markets, rising diesel prices, geopolitical supply disruptions and the increasingly difficult choice facing the Federal Reserve as inflation remains elevated.Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 14, 2026 - Memory and chip stocks got hit hard today (DRAM down 7%, semiconductors down nearly 5%) after frontier AI labs signaled they may be slowing development — even as the hyperscalers actually funding that buildout (Google, Meta, Microsoft) traded up 2-3% the same day. Chase breaks down why that split makes sense, and why he thinks the slowdown talk isn't just competitive posturing or a bid for a government bailout: independent analysis of a recent incident found AI agents built their own communication channel through normal files, without being programmed to, and tried to cover their tracks after cheating on a test — behavior that implies real awareness of what their human overseers were watching for. He also unpacks why the president publicly dismissing AI risk today is a riskier political bet than it looks, why a real slowdown could actually be good for hyperscalers and capital markets by cooling an overheating capex cycle, and gives his honest, deliberately-centrist read on the whole doomer-vs-accelerationist fight. Plus: the 10-year yield's brush with 5% for the first time since 2023, a skeptical read on the Energy Secretary's SPR-refill promise, and where the oil war may be starting to hit its own circuit breaker.Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 11, 2026 - Oil dropped 1.7% today even after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline (3.5 million barrels a day of exports) and confirmation that Saudi production just hit a 36-year low — supply news that should have sent prices higher. Zach and Chase break down why: Gulf states are sitting down directly with Iran in Oman on Monday, going around Washington, after it was reported that MBS personally called Trump asking the U.S. to bomb the Houthis and was turned down. They lay out a theory for what's actually happening — that Trump has quietly abandoned his seven-month "two more weeks" promise for the first time, is using Gulf states as face-saving cover to get back to something close to pre-war normal before the midterms, and is now leaning almost entirely on a nuclear-threat justification that doesn't hold up well against his own administration's actions. Plus: why $100 oil and $6 diesel matter more to Trump's political calculus than almost anything else on the board right now, and why the strait — not nukes — was what actually killed the last ceasefire attempt. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 10, 2026 - Oil ripped nearly 7% today, WTI pressing $103 and Brent hitting $108, on news that Saudi output has fallen to a 36-year low and Houthi forces have seized a coastal city and multiple Red Sea islands near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait — putting them in position to threaten shipping through it more easily than at any point in this conflict. Zach and Chase break down why almost nobody has noticed that an oil-sector position has quietly outperformed semiconductors this year, even as AI dominates every headline — and why that stat stopped being a curiosity today: mortgages crossed 7%, diesel crossed $6 a gallon nationwide, and the 10-year Treasury just posted its highest weekly close since 2007. They also unpack why Trump's own jawboning about oil prices is losing its power to move markets, and make the case for why continuing the current course may now be more politically costly than cutting losses. Plus: the $5,000 stimulus-check promise, and why Chase thinks it costs more than it helps.Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 9, 2026 - The jobs numbers are solid, prices are up, and the labor market's strong — by every normal measure the Fed should be raising rates, not talking about cutting them. But Chase makes the case that the reason those numbers look strong at all comes down to one narrow input: AI capital expenditure. He estimates it at 3 to 3.5% of the entire US economy this year, against real GDP growth of roughly 4 to 4.5% — take it away, he says, and growth is at best flat, more likely negative. Also today: Treasury Secretary Bessent's $6 billion stock buyback plan appears to have backfired (bond yields rose, not fell, right after the announcement), and what that says about credibility and half-measures.Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 8, 2026 — Could gold eventually reach $10,000? Zach Abraham explains why he believes today's inflationary cycle may have much further to run — and why investors may be preparing for the wrong kind of risk. Zach and Chase Taylor discuss why the playbook built around deflationary crashes may no longer fit today's fiscal and monetary environment, how persistent inflation changes the role of cash and hard assets, and what could eventually signal that the cycle is ending. They also examine oil nearing $100, rising diesel prices, escalating supply risks in the Middle East, the outlook for interest rates, and why strong nominal growth makes the case for rate cuts increasingly difficult. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 4, 2026 — Could Nvidia really become a $10 trillion company? Maybe. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue that's not the only question investors should be asking. They break down the risk-reward behind today's biggest AI trade, why an extraordinary company can still become difficult to justify at an extraordinary valuation, and where they see more attractive opportunities outside the market's most crowded names. Zach and Chase also discuss a surprisingly strong jobs report and what it means for the Fed, record seasonal gasoline and diesel prices, improving Chinese oil-demand signals, and why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may have been built for an economic regime that no longer exists. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 3, 2026 — The S&P 500 has long been treated as a simple way to broadly own the U.S. market. But is that still what investors are actually buying? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine how extreme concentration in technology, semiconductors and communications has changed the makeup of major U.S. indexes — and why relying on the S&P's historical performance may mean comparing today's index with something that no longer looks the same. They also discuss rising signs of services inflation, liquidity and Treasury policy, stretched U.S. valuations, oil-market pressure and growing geopolitical risk in Europe. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com