11: The Suwalki Gap

In this edition of Intel Insights, Leighton discusses the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas, providing background information on the situation and analyzing the factors that led to the attack. He explains how Hamas meticulously planned the attack, using various weapons and tactics to target Israeli locations. Leighton also highlights the intelligence failures on the part of Israel, which resulted in a significant number of casualties and hostages. He delves into the history and ideology of Hamas, as well as the complex dynamics in the Middle East involving Iran, Hezbollah, and other regional actors. Leighton emphasizes the potential for a wider war and the challenges Israel faces in addressing the crisis in Gaza while avoiding a protracted conflict.     Episode Timestamps: Overview of the planning and tactics used by Hamas in their attack on Israel {01:30} Background on Hamas and their goals to destroy Israel and establish an Islamic society {03:00} History of Gaza and its occupation by Israel and subsequent takeover by Hamas {05:15} Involvement of Iran in supporting both Hamas and Hezbollah {10:25} Deployment of US military forces to support Israel and the possibility of a wider war {14:30} Challenges in achieving a lasting peace in the Middle East {16:05} Potential consequences of a Hamas takeover {18:40}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton www.intelinsightspodcast.com 

In this edition of Intel Insights, Leighton discusses the recent plane crash that killed Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, along with other top leaders. The cause of the crash is still unknown, but there are suspicions of an on-board explosion or sabotage. This incident highlights the instability in Russia, with recent dismissals of military leaders and challenges to Putin's power. The Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization, had been sanctioned by the West and played a significant role in conflicts in countries like Ukraine and Syria. Russia now faces uncertainty as it tries to fill the void left by the Wagner Group and maintain its influence in various regions.     Episode Timestamps: A plane crash that resulted in the presumed death of Yevgeny Prigohzin and other Wagner Group members {0:36} The instability of Russia after the decapitation of the Wagner Group {1:51} The Wagner Group’s popularity in other countries, and how that affected Putin and the Russian state {6:51} Putin’s plan to exact his revenge against Prigohzin after the rebellion in June 2023 {8:14} The type of man and leader Prigohzin was, and the support he was able to generate as a result of his ‘accomplishments’ {10:22} What is next for Russia {12:50} Dramatic changes that may occur on the battlefield for Russia {17:49}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton www.intelinsightspodcast.com 

In this episode of Intel Insights, Leighton discusses the recent coup in Niger and its potential global repercussions. Niger, a resource-rich country in West Africa, is one of the poorest nations in the world. Its significant uranium reserves have attracted the interest of various countries, including China and France. The coup aims to address the country's decline and the perceived exploitation of its resources by foreign companies. The complex history of Niger, including colonial rule and ethnic tensions, has contributed to its current political situation. The coup has also raised concerns about the stability of the region and the impact on counterterrorism efforts.    The United States and France have a military presence in Niger, but the coup has strained relations and raised questions about the effectiveness of their missions. The involvement of Russia and its proxy, the Wagner Group, adds another layer of complexity to the situation, as they seek to gain control over Niger's uranium reserves and challenge Western influence. The outcome of the coup and the scramble for resources in Niger will have significant implications for global markets and geopolitical dynamics.     Episode Timestamps: Why certain people are very interested in Niger right now {1:43} Increasing criticism and resentment surrounding the Areva and OranoCycle operations in Niger {6:19} The chaotic history of Niger, and how it came to be what it is today {8:09} The initial development of a military base by the U.S. in Agadez, Niger, and what has evolved since then {16:35} Assessing the current mission of the U.S. in Niger {18:43} The many ‘Russian flags’ showing up in Niger, which could lead to increased control of the uranium production there {21:50}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton www.intelinsightspodcast.com 

“China hacks Japan’s defense networks.” -Washington Post   In this episode of Intel Insights, Leighton focuses on the great hack that happened to Japan, the increased aggressiveness from a rising China over the years, and Japan’s decision to create a stronger national cyber strategy with cyber command. Hear about the major factors that have contributed to Japan executing a new national security strategy, such as increasing their defense budget to 2% of their GDP, and developing a cyber defense network that can basically eliminate cyber attacks.    In the past, Japan didn’t have specific laws covering leaks of military data and espionage, but they are now implementing mechanisms to protect classified information and working to create a truly impermeable cyber defense network.     Episode Timestamps: A recent occurrence that involved a special unit from China hacking into Japan’s defense networks {0:44} Other major hacks that have happened in recent years {2:48} The creation of the unit 61419 (also known as TIC), which was put in place by the People’s Liberation Army {4:05} Japan’s decision to establish policies regarding cyberattacks with help from the United States {5:06} How Tokyo created a new national cyber strategy + cyber command {7:44} The increased aggressiveness of China in recent years, especially in cyberspace {11:01} Six major factors that have contributed to Japan implementing a new national security strategy {15:14} Japan’s plan to create a new information warfare organization as part of their national security strategy {16:35}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton www.intelinsightspodcast.com 

In the previous episode of Intel Insights, Leighton discussed India's Siliguri Corridor and how China's moves in Bhutan could impact India's control of the Siliguri Corridor. Another important corridor (this time found in Europe) is the Suwalki Gap, or the Suwalki Corridor.    The Suwalki Gap connects Russia's enclave of Kaliningrad with Belarus, which is a big ally of Russia. The Suwalki Gap is sometimes called the most dangerous place in the world. More recently, it’s become even more significant due to its unique location - especially since Wagner Group mercenaries have been seen near this gap.   This episode focuses on several key historical events that led to the formation of the Suwalki Gap, like the multiple partitions of Poland, and how Kaliningrad came about. Learn why the Suwalki Gap is extremely critical for Russian security, the vulnerability that exists for both sides, and what to expect regarding the economic aspect, cyber space, increased military incursions, and more for these countries involved.     Episode Timestamps: Key historical events surrounding the creation of the Suwalki Gap {02:10} Why the Suwalki Gap has become critical to Russian security {10:40} Reasons why there is vulnerability for both sides on the Suwalki Gap {13:34} The relationship between Russia, Belarus, and Poland {15:40} What to expect regarding the economic pressure placed on Russia, cyber attacks from Russia and Belarus, increased military incursions and border vigilance {18:00}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton www.intelinsightspodcast.com 

The country of Bhutan is currently at the center of a major dispute, and has involved the countries of China and India. With the conflict happening between these powerful countries, there is a great possibility that this could boil over into a full-blown war.     In this episode of Intel Insights, Leighton focuses on the Land of the Thunder Dragon, and how all of the countries along the Himalayan Ridge are actually playing a part in global politics. Learn about the strategic location of Bhutan, three important things the Chinese have claimed, a crucial area known as the Doklam Plateau, and the history of war between China and India over border issues.   While this area is in a desolate place that few people have visited, it’s also one we need to pay attention to. The Land of the Thunder Dragon has a great deal of strategic importance - not only could the balance of power in Asia be upset, but ultimately, the balance of power in the world.     Episode Timestamps: Introduction to Bhutan, the Land of the Thunder Dragon {00:51} The strategic location of Bhutan and what could happen if China took control of this area {02:25} The McMahon Line {05:45} 3 important things the Chinese claim {06:40} The Doklam Plateau and the dispute as to where Tibet, Bhutan, and India actually meet in their tripoint {09:35} The key areas of the Chumbi Valley, Gipmochi mountain, and Batang La mountain {10:50} The history of China and India going to war over border issues, and how Bhutan is being affected {13:33} How China is using maps to assert its claims and physically move into Bhutanese land {15:35}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton www.intelinsightspodcast.com 

The war in Ukraine has now been going on for over 500 days. It’s hard to believe that this protracted conflict has lasted this long in its current phase. This episode of Intel Insights focuses on the key events that have taken place since Russia’s attack in February 2022. Hear about the controversial use of cluster munitions, Ukraine’s strong desire to become a NATO member, as well as the significant divisions that have occurred in Russia’s military leadership structure.    The conflict in Ukraine has entered a new phase, with both challenges and opportunities for Ukraine and the international community. The future outlook remains uncertain, but the determination of the Ukrainian people and the support of the international community will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome.     Episode Timestamps: Key events that have taken place since Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24th, 2022 {00:40} The controversial use of cluster munitions {04:45} Russia’s areas of superiority, as well as some limitations {07:20} The current situation involving Ukraine becoming a NATO member {10:30} Significant divisions within the Russian military leadership structure {14:45}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton

In this episode of Intel Insights, Cedric Leighton discusses the challenges of predicting major events and the importance of understanding the potential for black swan events. He highlights historical examples of events that were not predicted or were ignored by decision-makers, such as the fall of Saigon and the 9/11 attacks. Leighton explains Nassim Nicholas Taleb's concept of black swan events and the limitations of traditional statistical analysis in predicting rare and impactful events. He emphasizes the need for decision-makers to consider historical precedents, look for big truths beyond statistics, and assess factors such as momentum, ideology, corruption, and popular support when predicting the outcome of conflicts.      Episode Timestamps: Examples of major historical events occurring that were not predicted or were ignored {2:23} The Black Swan theory {4:59} The Ludic fallacy {9:58} Decision theory {11:36} 5 important things to consider when it comes to the occurrence of major historical events {12:18}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton

In this edition of Intel Insights, Cedric Leighton explores the history of rebellions and revolutions in Russia, highlighting their significance and impact on the country's political landscape. He discusses notable events such as the Pugachev's Rebellion in the 18th century, the Russian Revolution of 1905, and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Leighton also delves into the recent mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group and its implications for Russia's foreign policy and military operations.     Episode Timestamps: Pugachev’s Rebellion in Russia {2:00} The Decembrist Revolt and how it impacted the Russian monarchy {05:30} Key events that led to the first Russian Revolution of 1905 {07:40} Poor circumstances that ultimately led to 2 Russian revolutions in 1917 {13:30} Fighting between red Russians and white Russians in the Russian Civil War {16:30} The Kronstadt rebellion in 1921 {17:20} The coup d'etat against Gorbachev in 1991 {21:00} General Sergey Surovikin’s noticeable role in the coup d’etat in 1991, as well as his connection to present day Russian events  {25:30} Important aspects involved in the Wagner Group rebellion against the Russian government in June 2023 {26:20}   Connect with Cedric: www.intelinsightspodcast.com  https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton

In this edition of Intel Insights, Cedric Leighton discusses the history and evolution of air defenses and air raid sirens, a sound that has become all too familiar in the Ukraine-Russia war.   Cedric takes us on a journey through the history of air defenses, from the first documented case of an aircraft being shot down by a weapon from the ground in 1915 to the development of surface-to-air missile systems during World War II and the Cold War. He highlights the various efforts made by different countries to protect their territories from aerial attacks and the role of air raid sirens in warning civilians of incoming air raids.     Episode Timestamps: The start of air defense and air raid sirens {01:15} Key developments in aviation and anti-aircraft weaponry {02:40} The significance of the Vietnam war and air defense systems {06:26} Various types of man portable air defense systems {07:25} How certain air defense systems are now playing an important role in Ukraine {09:04} Weapon systems the Russians are using in Ukraine and how both sides are being affected {10:40} The unique, layered defense system Ukraine has been able to build {13:10}   Connect with Cedric: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton