Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials

We sit down with Dartmouth national security scholars Jennifer Lind and Michael Mastanduno as they compare Cold War export control strategies with modern attempts to limit China's access to sensitive US technologies. They delve into three key lessons from the historical COCOM regime, discuss the evolving technological competition with China, and reflect on the feasibility of current US policies. Their article "Hard Then Harder Now: COCOM's Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China," is featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4.

Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford) and Nicola Leveringhaus (King's College London) join us to discuss the evolving global landscape of nuclear security. Together, we examine the roundtable essays featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4, focusing on shifts in nuclear politics catalyzed by China's rise, changing domestic politics, and increased multipolar competition. The discussion delves into the interconnectedness of global nuclear dynamics, the importance of domestic political drivers, and the implications for US and European security strategies. Roundtable: https://tnsr.org/roundtable/navigating-the-new-nuclear-map/

Chris Walsh and Igor Khrestin from the George W. Bush Institute join Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens for this discussion dealing with the historical context and current challenges in U.S. policy toward North Korea. They touch on the role of human rights and democracy, the impact of China's and Russia's support for North Korea, and potential strategies for future administrations. Along with former Senator Cory Gardner, Walsh and Khrestin co-authored the article "US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?" featured in Volume 8, Issue 4 of the journal. Tune in for a comprehensive exploration of one of America's most persistent foreign policy dilemmas.

Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, reveals striking findings that seasoned national security professionals often misjudge uncertainty. This overview of his latest TNSR article, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," covers how minor training can improve decision-making accuracy and highlights the importance of structured feedback and better calibration in national security judgments. 

Mariya Grinberg, assistant professor  of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, speaks with us on the topic of her new book, "Trade in War: Economic Cooperation Across Enemy Lines." In our talk she challenges the conventional wisdom that states stop trading during wartime. We discuss her 'wartime trade theory,' exploring how states balance military benefits and economic costs. The conversation also touches on modern applications, such as the US-China relationship and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting how trade dynamics evolve in wartime scenarios.

We engage with Erica Lonergan and Jack Snyder, authors of "Cultural Change in Military Organizations: Hackers and Warriors in the US Army." The discussion delves into the fusion of cyber and traditional military cultures within the U.S. Army, focusing on the creation of the Cyber Corps and its implications for national security. The conversation highlights the backstory, challenges, and future of integrating a cyber warrior ethos into the military, sparking considerations for a potential new independent cyber service.

Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest chat with Richard Maass on the topics of his article, "Legal Deterrence by Denial: Strategic Initiative and International Law in the Gray Zone," featured in Volume 8, Issue 3 of TNSR. Their conversation spans topics such as the importance of defining gray zone aggression, criminalizing tactics, and improving enforcement and attribution to deter such activities. They also touch on real-world examples of gray zone tactics by countries like Russia, China, and Iran, illustrating the difficulties defenders face under current legal and political frameworks.

In this episode, Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens are joined by Jon Caverley, an esteemed national security and China scholar, to discuss his article, "So What? Reassessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan," featured in Volume 8, Issue 3 of TNSR. Jon, a professor of strategic and operational research at the United States Naval War College, shares his insights on the military ramifications of a Chinese-controlled Taiwan and its strategic importance. This enlightening discussion explores the operational balance of power in the Pacific, the role of space-based capabilities, and the broader implications for U.S. defense strategy. Join us for a detailed analysis of this pivotal issue. Read the article: https://tnsr.org/2025/06/so-what-reassessing-the-military-implications-of-chinese-control-of-taiwan/

Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest interview Herb Lin, a national security expert from Stanford University. They discuss his article, "Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons: A Commonsense Approach to Understanding Costs and Benefits," and explore the complex interplay between AI, nuclear strategy, and human control.   Read the article: https://tnsr.org/2025/06/artificial-intelligence-and-nuclear-weapons-a-commonsense-approach-to-understanding-costs-and-benefits/

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, co-hosts Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens interview scholars Nicholas Anderson and Daryl Press about their article, "Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang's Other Deterrent," featured in Volume 8, Issue 3 of the Texas National Security Review. Anderson and Press challenge the conventional wisdom that North Korean artillery could devastate Seoul during a conflict. They discuss the origins of their research, the methodology behind their military campaign analysis, and the important implications for policymakers, including the unexpected resilience of urban areas and the crucial steps South Korea has taken to mitigate potential damage. Tune in for an insightful discussion that reevaluates the artillery threat on the Korean Peninsula and explores broader security implications.   Read the article: https://tnsr.org/2025/06/lost-seoul-assessing-pyongyangs-other-deterrent/ For additional information on the model, underlying data, and other supplementary materials, please visit the online appendix at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/86HBGS.