“Restoring Deterrence”: Dangerous Words in the Middle East

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Michael Wahid Hanna, Renata Segura, Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao to talk about Donald Trump's return to the White House and what it means for the world, whether the wars in Europe and the Middle East or crises and flashpoints elsewhere. He first talks with Olga about Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war. Does that means subjugating Kyiv to Russian influence? What does a more transactional Washington portend for NATO and European security? Richard and Michael then look at how a Trump presidency might approach Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, its confrontation with Iran and Middle East politics more broadly. Renata lays out what to make of Trump’s stated plans for mass deportations and his next administration’s Latin America policy. Richard then speaks with Ali and Amanda about China policy under the next Trump administration, the prospect of tariffs on Chinese exports and flashpoints around Taiwan and in the South China Sea. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more, check out our commentary Toward a Plan B for Peace in Ukraine, our recent report The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy, and our United States program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, to talk about Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. They discuss Chadian President Mahamat Déby’s consolidation of power since the death of his fatherIdriss in 2021, his approach to dealing with the fallout from Sudan’s war and his outreach to new security partners alongside Chad’s traditional ally France. They also talk about neighbouring Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s increasing reliance on Russian mercenaries and Rwandan forces for protection and support in battling rebels on the country’s peripheries. They look at Cameroonian President Paul Biya’s recent absence from public view, questions surrounding the leadership succession and enduring separatist violence in Cameroon’s Anglophone areas. Lastly, they assess the gloomy prospects for more open politics in Central Africa, where leaders seem determined to stay in power at any cost, and the implications for the region’s stability. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent Q&A Arrest of Separatist Leader Puts Spotlight on Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict and our Central Africa regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s intensified military operations in northern Gaza, the implications of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and what is left of Gaza a year into the war Israel launched in response to Hamas’ 7 October attacks. They talk about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly in the besieged north, where access to aid remains restricted. They discuss the “generals’ plan”, a blueprint by former Israeli military officials that entails denying areas of Gaza aid so as to flush out militants, which Israel denies it is implementing. They examine what Sinwar’s death might mean for Hamas and who might replace him as leader. With prospects for a ceasefire bleak, they also reflect on the devastating toll and trauma the past year has wrought on Gaza and Palestinian society.Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to read our recent statement In Gaza, the Time of Greatest Peril and our Israel/Palestine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker and senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war. They talk about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the U.S., what we know about his proposed “victory plan” and his efforts to ensure support from both sides of the aisle in Washington. They unpack the latest battlefield dynamics, including Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, Russia’s slow but steady gains in eastern Ukraine and the challenges both sides face in maintaining the war effort. They examine how the approaching winter and Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. They also discuss former U.S. president and Republican candidate Donald Trump’s claims that he can quickly end the war by striking a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin and the idea gaining currency in Western capitals of making firmer commitments to Ukraine about its NATO membership. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check our Ukraine country page and our visual explainer Ukraine War Map: Tracking the Frontlines. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon, its humanitarian toll, whether Hezbollah will fight back and what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death could mean for the country’s politics and sectarian relations. Richard then talks with Ali about Iran’s motives for launching its ballistic missile attack on 1 October against Israel and how it might react to an Israeli strike. Finally, he talks to Mairav about how Israelis view the attack and the opportunities and risks that lie in pressing what appears to be Israel’s military advantage in Lebanon and against Iran directly.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, our alert Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East and our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more forcefully. They discuss what an escalation into a full-scale war would mean for both countries and the region. They also assess Washington’s role as the U.S. heads toward presidential elections, its failed efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and whether it can prevent a wider escalation absent one. For more on the topics discussed in this episode read our recent conflict alert  The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, and our Middle East & North Africa region page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the first episode of Hold Your Fire’s new season, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to speak about the UN General Assembly high-level week and the UN’s global role. They look at how the UN has responded to the Gaza war and conflict’s impact on politics and debates at the UN. They talk about the UN’s efforts in other conflicts, including Ukraine, Sudan and Haiti, and challenges UN peacekeepers and envoys face elsewhere. They also discuss efforts to reform UN institutions and strengthen multilateral diplomacy and the potential implications of the U.S. elections, particularly if former President Donald Trump prevails, for the world body. For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2024-2025, and our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli strike aimed at killing a top Hamas commander that, according to the local authorities, killed scores of civilians in a designated safe zone. They talk about ceasefire negotiations, whether the two sides have softened their positions on the main stumbling blocks – Hamas’s rejecton of a short-term ceasefire entailing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners without guarantees that such a truce would lead to a permanent end to hostilities; and Israel’s refusal to agree to end the war without further degrading Hamas – and what governance in Gaza looks like absent a deal. They also cover the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hizbollah.For more, check out our statement A Gaza Ceasefire and our Israel/Palestine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s South Asia project director Samina Ahmed to talk about the fallout from the February elections in Pakistan, the deteriorating security in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad's relations with Pakistan’s neighbours. They unpack what’s behind the enduring popularity of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and their standoff with the country’s political and military establishment. They discuss Khan’s efforts to repair his relations with the military, the legal cases levelled against him and the near-term chances of his release from jail. They also talk about the uptick in militant attacks in Pakistan’s border regions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, claimed in part by the Pakistani Taliban, links between that group and the Afghan Taliban, and the strained relations between Islamabad and the authorities in Kabul. Lastly, they touch upon Pakistan’s evolving relations with India.  For more, check out our Pakistan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Finnish President and former Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb to talk about next week’s NATO summit, European security and the war in Ukraine. They assess Finland’s role as one of NATO’s newest members, Europe’s defence spending and preparedness and the future of the alliance as Washington’s attention shifts to the Asia Pacific. They talk about the war in Ukraine and what hope there is for a negotiated settlement. They discuss how Western capitals can counter perceptions of their double standards in much of the rest of the world and the challenges facing peacemaking and diplomacy in an era of big power competition and a more multipolar world order.For more, check out our recent podcast episodes Ukraine and European Security and U.S. Elections and the Future of Transatlantic Relations. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.